cryptos era

SOON™ i will write up my thesis and strategy for 2024.

/
sneak peak:
I. We are in the beginning of stage 4 of a global gambling pandemic.

WHO-Pandemic-Phases-WHOs-6-phase-pandemic-approach-defined-in-1999-and-revised-in-2009.png

II. Playing musical chairs is easy when you know the light-out schedule
 
CryptoserA said:
you are not the first my friend,
since 2010 they've been writing obituaries for the corn...
> https://web.archive.org/web/20101215103112/http://undergroundeconomist.com/post/1528511369
* Source website for the article is... wait for it... is... is dead!


View attachment 1638719
Click to expand...

He said crash, not death... and a crash at times is inevitable, as it is natural for anything with mankind assigned value and mankind emotions and beliefs in the mix.

If you cannot differentiate between crash and death, are you sure you can actually comprehend what crypto is?
 
If we read through the articles and arguments of naysayers, it's not that they pronounce crypto dead and burried and never spoken of ever again.
that can never happen in digital. (people still play atari games with emulators and AOL had like 1.5 mil paying subscribers couple of years ago)
/
generally speaking when people decline an opportunity at $100 and it goes to $1000, it's very difficult for them to jump in after the 80% crash _ when it's AT 200
in other words the asset is dead "to you" and you moved on
you dont have any horses in the race, it dosent matter "to you"


/
there is also a universal age old truth in your statement! something that is at heart of keynes' economics theory
problem is we get fearful of the cRaSh in the beginning of cycle
we get greedy at the top and get wiped out!





quote-the-markets-are-moved-by-animal-spirits-and-not-by-reason-john-maynard-keynes-70-32-33.jpg
 
CryptoserA said:
If we read through the articles and arguments of naysayers, it's not that they pronounce crypto dead and burried and never spoken of ever again.
that can never happen in digital. (people still play atari games with emulators and AOL had like 1.5 mil paying subscribers couple of years ago)
/
generally speaking when people decline an opportunity at $100 and it goes to $1000, it's very difficult for them to jump in after the 80% crash _ when it's AT 200
in other words the asset is dead "to you" and you moved on
you dont have any horses in the race, it dosent matter "to you"


/
there is also a universal age old truth in your statement! something that is at heart of keynes' economics theory
problem is we get fearful of the cRaSh in the beginning of cycle
we get greedy at the top and get wiped out!





View attachment 1638727
Click to expand...

Thereby creating opportunities for those that are not just following the herd, and try to be more reasonable and less animal spirity.
 
leon.davibe said:
Yea Religions don't die that easily

There once was something to it but now it is all but a religion imo

Hope it will take a turn again
Click to expand...

From Interview with Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller:

The second thing that convinced him to buy bitcoin was after he got a call from billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones. “I got a call from Paul Jones,” he recalled. Jones told him: “Do you know that when bitcoin went from $17,000 to $3,000 that 86% of the people that owned it at $17,000, never sold it?” Druckenmiller admitted: “This was huge in my mind. So here’s something with a finite supply and 86% of the owners are religious zealots. I mean, who the hell holds something through $17,000 to $3000? And it turns out none of the — the 86% — sold it. Add that to this new central bank craziness phenomenon.”

/
this overzealous HODL culture paired with the strictly carnivore diets and extreme libertarian views conclusively indicates that early bitcoin holders are all in a cult!
however throughout the years bitcoin has gone through multiple narrative shifts.
The chart below demonstrates how the weight of different narratives for bitcoin has changed over the years
for example the idea of bitcoin as a E-Cash concept completely dies by 2015 and it starts to gain credence as an uncorrelated financial asset.

1_QL4Q8voNWowjMhhL4s9RCg.png

Sources:
1. https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-fomo-paul-tudor-jones-stan-druckenmiller-invest-millions-btc/
2. https://medium.com/@nic__carter/visions-of-bitcoin-4b7b7cbcd24c
 
CryptoserA said:
From Interview with Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller:

The second thing that convinced him to buy bitcoin was after he got a call from billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones. “I got a call from Paul Jones,” he recalled. Jones told him: “Do you know that when bitcoin went from $17,000 to $3,000 that 86% of the people that owned it at $17,000, never sold it?” Druckenmiller admitted: “This was huge in my mind. So here’s something with a finite supply and 86% of the owners are religious zealots. I mean, who the hell holds something through $17,000 to $3000? And it turns out none of the — the 86% — sold it. Add that to this new central bank craziness phenomenon.”

/
this overzealous HODL culture paired with the strictly carnivore diets and extreme libertarian views conclusively indicates that early bitcoin holders are all in a cult!
however throughout the years bitcoin has gone through multiple narrative shifts.
The chart below demonstrates how the weight of different narratives for bitcoin has changed over the years
for example the idea of bitcoin as a E-Cash concept completely dies by 2015 and it starts to gain credence as an uncorrelated financial asset.

View attachment 1639151

Sources:
1. https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-fomo-paul-tudor-jones-stan-druckenmiller-invest-millions-btc/
2. https://medium.com/@nic__carter/visions-of-bitcoin-4b7b7cbcd24c
Click to expand...
Yea so interesting how some of these beliefs can keep existing , even after they have been shown to be false or not possible

The only one that hasn't been shown to be false is the programmable database , though core is certainly doing their part to get that to an end and naturally the cost of transactions make it all but impossible to be mass adopted

The other possibility why so many don't sell is cause some wallets/utxo's link them to certain activities they don't want to be revealed

That is probably why there is such a hard push for solutions to add self induced shortage of network capacity that will kill of traceability

That would free up these coins to be liquidated

Just wild speculation
 
You get further by taking advantage of the motion of the oceans rise and fall

But like surfing it takes skill+luck to catch the waves consistently

There is still global warning the sea levels is rising so even hodl pays off over long enough time frame

so for those that find surfing inconsistent there is still that
 
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The more that believe means it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy
 
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