Scientists in Australia say strong winds in the Pacific are the reason for a 14-year slowdown in global warming and have warned that the warming process will soon resume.
In a study that is likely to irritate climate change sceptics, the researchers concluded that unusually strong trade winds pushed hotter waters deep below the surface and raised colder waters but global warming –typically based on ocean temperatures - will soon continue.
Sceptics have long pointed to the pause in warming since 2001 as evidence that dire predictions about the impact of climate change are overblown.
Matthew England, the lead researcher, from the University of New South Wales, said the Pacific winds had been stronger than anticipated in climate models. But, he said, the variation was natural and the winds would soon return to normal levels.
"The phase we're in of accelerated trade winds particularly lasts a couple of decades," Professor England told ABC News.
"We're about 12 to 13 years in to the most accelerated part of the wind field. It's important to point out there's a cycle we expect to reverse and when they do reverse back to their normal levels, we'd expect global warming to kick in and start to rise."
Professor England said the trade winds had strengthened over the equatorial Pacific since the 1990s and had been twice as fierce as normal. But the variations had not been included in 50 climate models analysed by the researchers.
Indeed, he said it was surprising the world had not cooled in the past decade rather than its temperatures merely plateauing.
"We want the community to have confidence in the climate models,” Professor England said.
The study was published in Nature Climate Change.
