I see my question has had quite a few people talking. Crunched a few numbers, keeping house price at inflation, comparing a few scenarios over a period of 20 years, paying homeloans at normal intervals.
Scenario 1 :
Stay in current property(700k value).
Invest remaining cash(R5500) in a stable performing stock (i selected Satrix INDI -it performed 19% annualized over the last 10 years, although there is better)
Scenario 2:
Buy new property (roughly 1.2bar), and move there
rent out current property
invest remaining cash(R500)
Scenario 3:
buy new property, and rent it out
Say in current property
invest remaining cash(R3500)
Scenario 4 :
Sell current, rent for 20 years
invest remaining cash(R8500)
buy property cash after 20 years.
That is summarized scenario's - i did try and get inflation down in all my calculations etc.Rough calculations is
Linked(sorry yes its a mess)
But in summary:
Scenario 1 was the winner, with a portfolio value of 40.7 milj
Scenario 4 was very similar, with a portfolio value of 40.8 milj (just keep in mind the negative side of renting - possible problematic landlords etc etc - not my favourite idea :/
Scenario 3 was next in line, 26% down at a portfolio value of 29.8milj
Scenario 2 was the worst, 51% down at a portfolio value of 19.8Milj
But yes, that is just my biased opinion. I will certainly not invest my cash into a asset that only keeps up with inflation- when i'm 65 i don't plant to start chewing on the brick walls, and look at the 4 empty rooms.