How much total bandwidth in SA?

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Tunasashimi

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http://www.foundation-partnership.org/pubs/bandwidth/index.php?chap=chap4

SAT-3/WASC has an ultimate capacity of 120 Gbps. It currently has a capacity of 20 Gbps, but because this is already fully subscribed, it is in the process of being upgraded to 40 Gbps -- a capacity that was planned to become available in mid-2003.
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..It also says that Telkom owns 20% of the bandwidth.

Lets gather all info we can about bandwidth coming in to / available for the country.

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Some quick 'n dirty math...

120GBits x 20% = 24GBits on Sat3
? 10Gbits on Sat2
? 1 Gbit otherwise
~ 35Gbits total (that I'm aware of...)
Thats 35000 Mbits or 136718 256KBit links that can be utilised concurrently.

Say that these accounts could be oversold at least double, thats 273437.5 chunks of 256kbit international downloading+uploading.

Also according to above link, Telkom invested R500mil in the Sat3 cable. Lets say their total investment in all infrastructure was ~R750mil - for 25 years = 30 mil/year = R2.5mil/month.

Divided by 250000 256k slices = 10/slice/month.

This is obviouly a totally oversimplified calculation, but I have never seen one and I believe we should.

Also, keep in mind that up to 50% of bandwidth used may be local - and local bandwidth should be even cheaper, so a totally rough guess at the cost to "the combined owners of a 35GBit/s" link for a 128/128 or 256/128kbit adsl line, is R5-R15/month. ...Or will be when the sat3 runs at 120Gbits. Okay, suppose they have to pay to link up to other operators.. which I doubt... add R5.

Proxy
Also, far as I know, most SA traffic passes through a proxy. Anyone have more details? Somewhere, someone is sitting with the logs. These should be made public or the proxy should be removed - as those stats would provide unfair commercial information to whoever has access to it. (The proxy can also easily save 20% of bandwidth.. havent worked that in anywhere..)

Rough pokes at other figures:
1 000 000 dialup lines in SA (50 000 up on avg)
50 000 ADSL Lines (40 000 up on avg)
8 000 Diginet Lines ( 8 000 up on avg)
30 000 other - 3g, sentech.. (10 000 up)

So my guess is that, on average, at any given point in time, there are 100 000 connections to the internet (say 500 000 during peak hours and <30 000 offpeak) -- it all adds up to the fact that we should probably be paying around R100/month for a 30GB/512k connection. And possibly not be capped at any price above that. (Oh yes, add the capped stats above too...)

So, if these prices would lead to over-use, more lines should be laid seeing as that as a country, to our beloved monopoly, we've already paid for at least 3TB/s worth of cable...
 
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Oh, just some thoughts...

35Gbits = ~4GB (Gigabytes) per second
4.12GB x 60 x 24 = ~15TB / day
15TB x 30 = 450TB / month (54EB/year)

Anways 450TB / 3GB = 150 000 chunks of 3GB pure international peering / month...

So, access to 35GBits/sec combined, costing R750m, provides for at least 300 000 x 3GB accounts at ~512Kbit/s, and this at under R10/month. (Or for that matter - 30 000 x 30GB accounts at under R50/month)

...The 120GBit capcity on Sat3 by when? Bet you Telkom has access to 80%, even though theyve only paid for 20%... seeing as Gauteng probably has more bandwidth requirements on the cable, than all the other member countries combined.

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These calculations make a few presumtions though...
 
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Just think if we, as a country, had some of the cheapest, most reliable bandwidth available on the planet.... Thousands of overseas companies would invest, possibly millions of employment opportunities would be created...
 
More bandwidth than you can shake a big pipe at, being delivered in a seriously controlled manner to generate as much revenue as possible.

That's the real answer.

There's a LOT of bandwidth available that is just unutilised simply because Telkom control the taps, giving a false perception that bandwidth is in short supply and therefore expensive.

Total bollox of course.

If ICASA can achieve what OFCOM did in the UK, then it's plain sailing - unbundle the local loop, make bandwidth a national resource - our taxes paid for it !
 
Once again, you cannot look at the price of adsl in isolation. There are many other costs that contribute to the total. These costs are not directly associated with adsl, which all the costs you were calculating were. It is simplistic to the extreme to say "we should probably be paying around R100/month for a 30GB/512k connection."
 
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JStrike said:
Once again, you cannot look at the price of adsl in isolation. There are many other costs that contribute to the total. These costs are not directly associated with adsl, which all the costs you were calculating were. It is simplistic to the extreme to say "we should probably be paying around R100/month for a 30GB/512k connection."
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Definitely, but then R200-R300. Maybe R400. Surely the business, running costs and infrastructure can't be twice as much as the main source..? Anyone with a more informed answer/opinion?

What is the total cost of the copper infrastructure in SA? Who financed it, effectively? What is the total cost of exchanges, diginet, isdn, 3g, Hmmm.. lets start a site that pokes guesses/estimates at the cost of EVERYTHING IN THE WHOLE WORLD. Sorry, I just watched the BBC Supervolcanoes thing :)

No, but really...
 
Nice one Peter_J :) Didn't see it... I think more people read this thread though... PS I can't seem to PM you.. :)

Anyways, say our "sources" only have 20% of the costs, somehow (doubtful) and the running costs = 300% of the setup (Is it anywhere? ever?) - we still end up with R150/month for the hypothetical 30GB/512Mbit..oops I mean Kbit.

Not the R1500+ it currently costs. (Sorry R2200)
 
Tunasashimi I have enabled PM - never used it tho, is it lekker? ;)

I am fairly convinced that the full cost to the telco of a 512k uncapped link is in the region R150-R250pm.
 
bb_matt said:
More bandwidth than you can shake a big pipe at, being delivered in a seriously controlled manner to generate as much revenue as possible.

That's the real answer.

There's a LOT of bandwidth available that is just unutilised simply because Telkom control the taps, giving a false perception that bandwidth is in short supply and therefore expensive.

Total bollox of course.

If ICASA can achieve what OFCOM did in the UK, then it's plain sailing - unbundle the local loop, make bandwidth a national resource - our taxes paid for it !
Click to expand...


Same situation you have with de beers and the diamond companies. Control the flow of the product and make sure that no one else has the capacity to sell for the same price as you do.
 
Tunasashimi said:
Also according to above link, Telkom invested R500mil in the Sat3 cable. Lets say their total investment in all infrastructure was ~R750mil - for 25 years = 30 mil/year = R2.5mil/month.
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Telkom did not invest anything into the Sat3 project watso ever. The public of this country was the one that funded the cable. The Sat3 was constructed while Telkom was still a Government owned institution, therfore owned by the public. Just as 3/4 of all the infestructre in this country was created through Governement *cough* , Public money.

The governement is justified in taking the Sat3 away from Telkom and declaring it as a public service, which it is, but have they?
 
DOESNT ANYBODY OF THE 300 PEOPLE WHO VIEWED THIS KNOW FOR SURE HOW MUCH TOTAL BANDWIDTH IS ENTERING THE COUNTRY?!

I refuse to believe that my guesses/estimates are even close on target. Maybe I'm wrong...
 
Its a secret so that telkom can claim + justify expense of bandwidth claiming its limited, overused etc
 
Tunasashimi said:
DOESNT ANYBODY OF THE 300 PEOPLE WHO VIEWED THIS KNOW FOR SURE HOW MUCH TOTAL BANDWIDTH IS ENTERING THE COUNTRY?!

I refuse to believe that my guesses/estimates are even close on target. Maybe I'm wrong...
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Nobody outside the cartel knows for sure - go ask them. Pop back when you have a definitive answer.
 
Go undercover, Do Some Research, Put someone up to the job. Dammit!

Come on.....

10Gbit by fibre? another 2Gbit by satellite and other means.

Lots via freight ships on DVD shipments, terrible latency though... ?

I think this is a homework assignment for somebody.... We want a site that lays bare SA's infrastructure and the big players' cards. We need to know....
 
Peter_J said:
Tunasashimi I have enabled PM - never used it tho, is it lekker? ;)

I am fairly convinced that the full cost to the telco of a 512k uncapped link is in the region R150-R250pm.
Click to expand...

Once a communications link is up and running, its very very cheap to use. It shouldn't easily break if proper equipment is used. Back in the beginning of the year I calculated that if the then 100 000 ADSL users all had 192k lines, Telkoms turnover just on the line rental is 24 million rands a month (conservatively).
 
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