StrongTurd
Expert Member
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2005
- Messages
- 1,490
- Reaction score
- 1
Predicting the outcome of the Zim crisis without a crystal ball is obviously an educated guess at best. Here's my attempt:
The ZEC will soon finish their vote-rigging operation and will then make public their results. At this point it might go one of two ways: One, they can claim an outright victory for Zanu-PF or two they can claim that the results do not indicate a clear victor and that a follow-on poll is required.
I personally feel that they'll go for option 2 at this point. Seeing that it is an open secret that the MDC won by a landslide, going for option 1 will be too much of a blatant lie for even the most ignorant of observer to stomach. IMHO they don't have much of a choice but to go for option 2.
After the announcement of the date of the follow-on election, we'll be witness to intimidation, torture and murder on a far larger scale than was evident during the first elections. Together with this, the elections will be rigged even more than before. It is doubtful that election results will again be posted outside polling stations as this practice obviously makes rigging more difficult. Instead, results will be rigged from a central location. When the results are announced, it will indicate a clear majority for Mugabe.
At this point the MDC might start rioting in the streets. Mugabe will immediately announce a state of emergency, giving him absolute power. He'll use the violence and rioting in the streets as a pretext for this state of emergency and will justify his announcement as an absolute necessity in order to maintain law and order. The security forces will respond with deadly force using their newly-acquired stash of weapons that we (South Africa) are currently shipping up to them from Durban.
Tswangirai will be arrested for high treason and will be imprisoned after a farce trial. At this point the outside world will start making loud protests and might even impose general (not targetted) sanctions on Zim. Predictably these sanctions will have very little effect because none of the SADC members will enforce them. China will likewise not utter a word and will continue supporting Mugabe in exchange for raw minerals.
The flood of refugees out of Zim into South Africa will increase even more at this point. Another million or two illegals will cross the border into South Africa. T-bone will maintain his quiet diplomacy and will be seen walking hand in hand with Mugabe through the streets of Harare.
I think it is extremely doubtful that the UN Security Council will do anything concrete like invading Zim. Instead, they might make a lot of noise and intensify sanctions. Mugabe, meanwhile, will launch another genocide similar to the one in the early 80s in Matabeleland. Thousands of people will die. The world will do nothing. When Zuma takes over the presidency of SA, there might be more vocal resistance to Zanu-PF but nothing drastic like an invasion will happen. Relationships between Zanu-PF and the ANC might chill somewhat.
Mugabe will definitely not be stupid enough to hold another election in five year's time if he was not guaranteed a victory. For this purpose it is conceivable that he'll ban the MDC (he'll use the post-election violence as an excuse for this) and will thus become a proper dictator without even the illusion of democracy.
The end result is that Mugabe will remain in power until he dies of natural causes in a South African hospital. His death might leave a power vacuum with the heads of the security forces fighting amongst each other for control. This might escalate into full-scale civil war. This could destabilise the entire region.
The ZEC will soon finish their vote-rigging operation and will then make public their results. At this point it might go one of two ways: One, they can claim an outright victory for Zanu-PF or two they can claim that the results do not indicate a clear victor and that a follow-on poll is required.
I personally feel that they'll go for option 2 at this point. Seeing that it is an open secret that the MDC won by a landslide, going for option 1 will be too much of a blatant lie for even the most ignorant of observer to stomach. IMHO they don't have much of a choice but to go for option 2.
After the announcement of the date of the follow-on election, we'll be witness to intimidation, torture and murder on a far larger scale than was evident during the first elections. Together with this, the elections will be rigged even more than before. It is doubtful that election results will again be posted outside polling stations as this practice obviously makes rigging more difficult. Instead, results will be rigged from a central location. When the results are announced, it will indicate a clear majority for Mugabe.
At this point the MDC might start rioting in the streets. Mugabe will immediately announce a state of emergency, giving him absolute power. He'll use the violence and rioting in the streets as a pretext for this state of emergency and will justify his announcement as an absolute necessity in order to maintain law and order. The security forces will respond with deadly force using their newly-acquired stash of weapons that we (South Africa) are currently shipping up to them from Durban.
Tswangirai will be arrested for high treason and will be imprisoned after a farce trial. At this point the outside world will start making loud protests and might even impose general (not targetted) sanctions on Zim. Predictably these sanctions will have very little effect because none of the SADC members will enforce them. China will likewise not utter a word and will continue supporting Mugabe in exchange for raw minerals.
The flood of refugees out of Zim into South Africa will increase even more at this point. Another million or two illegals will cross the border into South Africa. T-bone will maintain his quiet diplomacy and will be seen walking hand in hand with Mugabe through the streets of Harare.
I think it is extremely doubtful that the UN Security Council will do anything concrete like invading Zim. Instead, they might make a lot of noise and intensify sanctions. Mugabe, meanwhile, will launch another genocide similar to the one in the early 80s in Matabeleland. Thousands of people will die. The world will do nothing. When Zuma takes over the presidency of SA, there might be more vocal resistance to Zanu-PF but nothing drastic like an invasion will happen. Relationships between Zanu-PF and the ANC might chill somewhat.
Mugabe will definitely not be stupid enough to hold another election in five year's time if he was not guaranteed a victory. For this purpose it is conceivable that he'll ban the MDC (he'll use the post-election violence as an excuse for this) and will thus become a proper dictator without even the illusion of democracy.
The end result is that Mugabe will remain in power until he dies of natural causes in a South African hospital. His death might leave a power vacuum with the heads of the security forces fighting amongst each other for control. This might escalate into full-scale civil war. This could destabilise the entire region.
