Is dial-up soon to be dead?

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jb007za

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With the announcement of Telkom's ADSL price reductions one can pay under R200 for a 384 kbps ADSL line and a 1 GB cap (Do1 package). I imagine that the others ISPs (e.g. M-Web, WebAfrica, etc) will follow suit. Okay, this isn't nearly enough for the power users out there but the average 'man in the street' hardly fits this profile. So, is this the end of the line for dial-up?

I think so... a few reasons.

1. Apparently approx 80% of the Telkom exchanges are ADSL enabled... coverage isn't that much of a problem any longer (particularly if one used dial-up previously)
2. Broadband is all the rage in online, television, print and even cinema advertisements. There is definitely a 'push' factor there.
3. It is probably cheaper for many users... assuming that you spend more than a few minutes online per day
4. Broadband is a more pleasant experience and allows for new things (e.g. streaming audio)
5. Dial-up is so yesterday

What do you guys think?
 
jb007za said:
With the announcement of Telkom's ADSL price reductions one can pay under R200 for a 384 kbps ADSL line and a 1 GB cap (Do1 package). I imagine that the others ISPs (e.g. M-Web, WebAfrica, etc) will follow suit. Okay, this isn't nearly enough for the power users out there but the average 'man in the street' hardly fits this profile. So, is this the end of the line for dial-up?

I think so... a few reasons.

1. Apparently approx 80% of the Telkom exchanges are ADSL enabled... coverage isn't that much of a problem any longer (particularly if one used dial-up previously)
2. Broadband is all the rage in online, television, print and even cinema advertisements. There is definitely a 'push' factor there.
3. It is probably cheaper for many users... assuming that you spend more than a few minutes online per day
4. Broadband is a more pleasant experience and allows for new things (e.g. streaming audio)
5. Dial-up is so yesterday

What do you guys think?
Click to expand...

Cheapest broadband is now R200. You can get dial up for less than R70.

Sure, you get 1Gb for your R200 - but for people who browse and check email and *don't want to do anything more*, 80Mb is enough. And if you use the net during callmore time, call costs aren't very high. Why should these users want to double or triple their costs?
 
I agree, that soon, dialup in most areas would fall away and make way for the entry-level broadband products (wired or wireless).

With the promise of IPTV over ADSL2+ (8Mb - 24Mb), HDTV etc. over the next two years, there will probably be more price reductions. As you say, the power-users and gamers will not be looking at the entry-level products, but the average man on the street will continue to benefit from the dropping prices.

Now, if they can only do away with the compulsory R92 exchange fee, then ADSL will truly be R199 a month, not R199 + R92.
 
Cathryn said:
Cheapest broadband is now R200. You can get dial up for less than R70.

Sure, you get 1Gb for your R200 - but for people who browse and check email and *don't want to do anything more*, 80Mb is enough. And if you use the net during callmore time, call costs aren't very high. Why should these users want to double or triple their costs?
Click to expand...

Or get iBurst for R50pm
 
Cathryn said:
Cheapest broadband is now R200. You can get dial up for less than R70.

Sure, you get 1Gb for your R200 - but for people who browse and check email and *don't want to do anything more*, 80Mb is enough. And if you use the net during callmore time, call costs aren't very high. Why should these users want to double or triple their costs?
Click to expand...
Speed and not having to be confined to callmore time?

If 80mb is enough then you could always get a 384 line (r152 in Aug) and a payg account which would cost you r5 per month over the year it would last you :)
fuzzyman said:
Now, if they can only do away with the compulsory R92 exchange fee, then ADSL will truly be R199 a month, not R199 + R92.
Click to expand...
Not only are they keeping it . . they're increasing it to r111 iirc. :mad:
 
bwana said:
Speed and not having to be confined to callmore time?

If 80mb is enough then you could always get a 384 line (r152 in Aug) and a payg account which would cost you r5 per month over the year it would last you :)
Click to expand...

But if all they're doing is reading mail, and a bit of browsing - and are at work during the day - the increase in speed and flexibility in time just isn't important. Certainly not worth another R100 or so.
 
Cathryn said:
But if all they're doing is reading mail, and a bit of browsing - and are at work during the day - the increase in speed and flexibility in time just isn't important. Certainly not worth another R100 or so.
Click to expand...
That bit of browsing itself is evolving into something that is dial-up unfriendly. Ever try viewing a flickr page? Watching a youtube video is also pretty much out of the qn. Those are both integral parts of browsing now.

Make local calls free and then maybe it would be worth having dialup but Web2.0 has spelled the beginning of the end for it . . . that is, for those who hadn't already realised it.
 
I think another thing to consider is that while the people currently using dialup, may generally just be checking a few emails and browsing one or two websites because they are concious about their dialup time and Telkom bill.

My mom, for example, uses dialup. She mostly uses it for checking her emails, but would love to look up recipes, craft ideas etc. My sister emigrated to Mexico, but cannot send my mom large photo attachments, and even if she makes them smaller, can't add too many. Even uploading them to an online album would mean too much dialup time.

So, I'm sure that there are more people out there who drastically limit their online time, out of concern for their Telkom bill. Having a fixed amount to budget for a month, takes that concern away.
 
bwana said:
That bit of browsing itself is evolving into something that is dial-up unfriendly. Ever try viewing a flickr page? Watching a youtube video is also pretty much out of the qn. Those are both integral parts of browsing now.

Make local calls free and then maybe it would be worth having dialup but Web2.0 has spelled the beginning of the end for it . . . that is, for those who hadn't already realised it.
Click to expand...

No, youtube is not an integral part of browsing. For the people on these forums, yes. And maybe if you gave everyone free and unlimited usage, then they'd get it into it. But for a lot of people, browsing is reading iol, maybe some cartoons; doing banking; checking email.

I'm not saying it should be that way. But it's a bit like saying old second hand cars are dead, because everyone could buy a new car. Sure they could, and sure they'd enjoy it if they had it - but the extra benefit isn't worth the extra cost.
 
Cathryn said:
I'm not saying it should be that way. But it's a bit like saying old second hand cars are dead, because everyone could buy a new car. Sure they could, and sure they'd enjoy it if they had it - but the extra benefit isn't worth the extra cost.
Click to expand...
The upsurge in broadband access, at the expense of dial-up, would seem to contradict that.

Sure, for a few who are content with getting email (sans attachments of any real size) and browsing pages as visually stimulating as google.com then dial-up will suffice but that is yesterday's internet not today's.

I know we're concentrating on ADSL but for the low access user there are other ways - for example the ubiquitous cellphone at rates around r0.50 per mb.
 
Thanks for your thoughts.

I wanted to work out the covergence point at which it is economically feasible to switch from dial-up to broadband. I've run two scenarios both based on the assumption that TelkomInternet's R79 dial-up subscription is used.

Do 1 package = R 199
TelkomInternet = R 79

Difference (to be used for calculating dial-up minutes) = R 120


Scenario 1: Dial-up only used during peak hours (e.g. small business)

Call rate per min = 38c (as of 1 August)

R 120 / 0.38 = 315.8 (five and a half hours a month OR 10 and a half minutes per day)


Scenario 2: Dial-up Internet only used during off-peak hours (e.g. residential user)

Call rate per min = 17c (as of 1 August)

R 120 / 0.17 = 705.9 (just under twelve hours a month OR 24 minutes per day)


So, for really low end users, I guess dial-up wins. But what is the cost of frustration at having to wait ages for Hotmail to load, not being able to experience YouTube or Virgin Radio, and then there's all the dropped calls. Those can add up too!
 
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