Is Duckworth-Lewis Method Fair in Cricket?

[vickramhx]

Hi,

I really dont know what is the procedure of Duckorth-Lewis method. I have found a Duckworth Lewis Calculator to know about it.. but no idea. Lets take discussion on this... I think its unfair.. What is your's idea?

thanks.

 

[Chevron]

Tell us why you think it's unfair.

 

[MickeyD]

Yes.

 

[nexxus]

It's the fairest method they've used up to now. Maybe not the best but better than the horrible methods they used before.

I think there needs to be adjustment on some of the metrics to account for the higher run rates since T20 but on the whole it mostly seems pretty fair.

 

[cr@zydude]

It's statistically fair, the problem is that almost no one understands how it works. It's like asking a genie what the correct score is.

Yes, I know that a lot of hard work and stats went into creating the Duckworth-Lewis method, but most people have no idea what any of these stats are, or how they affect the end total.

 

[Neoprod]

it's just averages really so not too difficult for the average person to understand in concept. The only problem with it is that it's hard to accept that your team loses when, for example, AB de Villiers is at the crease and you need 100 off the last 10 overs with 5 wickets in hand i.e. the weight of hundreds of historical games may say the batting team loses more often than not while we'd back AB to pull that game out of the fire maybe 8 times out 10.

 

[Bighit]

If it is unfair, then suggest a better alternative.

 

[Arthur]

I agree.

Like Democracy, it might not be prefect in every way, but it sure beats the pants off whatever comes second.

 

[Rusty0]

Depends on which side of it you're on.

 

[vickramhx]

Let consider, the first playing team scored most runs for all wickets loss, second playing team may loss 5wickets for 30-35 overs. Due to bad light / weather match abandoned. At the time second one have chance to win with the other 5wickets. But they don't have chance for D/L ryt...
it's bad option for second one...

 

[MickeyD]

Let consider, the first playing team scored most runs for all wickets loss, second playing team may loss 5wickets for 30-35 overs. Due to bad light / weather match abandoned. At the time second one have chance to win with the other 5wickets. But they don't have chance for D/L ryt...
it's bad option for second one...

Poor example.

The batting captain/team manager should be aware of the poor conditions and the team should factor in the D/L target.

 

[nexxus]

Yeah, that's not a great example. Any system will fail that test as a critical part of DL is to determine what the result, it's trying to judge whether or not the team batting 2nd was on track to win when play was stopped.

If team A made 300/10 in their 50 and team B was 180/5 after 30 overs, everyone would agree that the match was close. However at 5 down, team B still has 120 runs to make with 5 wickets in hand, assuming 3 of those are probably numptys with the bat, team A would be slight favourites for me.

Looking at the DL calculator, it says team A wins by 4 runs which should be ruled almost too close to call for me but if you *have* to have a winner, then team A it must be. Not to mention that team B has the advantage of knowing exactly what they need on a ball by ball basis.

 

[nexxus]

The problem with DL though is that it doesn't take into account things like team A has bowling out their strike bowler, they don't have a decent 5th bowler or team B has the top 2 players in the world at the crease or 3 allrounders and an injured batsman coming in next.

 

[stefan9]

It is not fair as it doesn't take factors into account. It only relies on historical stats of previous games it doesn't factor in the ability of players at the grease ect. It is better then the previous system but its still not a good system.