Leverage/Margin/ Futures trading... I got liquidated. Again!

HIT RATE

think of trading as flipping coins. only 2 possible outcomes: Win/ Loss
they say flipping coins is 50/50 but sometimes you get three heads in a row?!?!?!?!?!
the 50/50 is the aggregate result of a bunch of flips.
so if you flip 5 times, you may get 3 heads, 2 tails
if you flip 500 times, maybe 270 heads, 230 tails.
but if you flip 5 million times, it is guaranteed to be 50/50 with a very very small deviation.

in other words,
you see a youtuber making banks with leverage. ask yourself what is their hit rate?!? ***
dont ask if they made money on the "LAST" trade,
see if they made money on the last 100 trades.
dont expect to make money from your first trade,
see how many successful trades you make in general.

/
SIZING

but im a noob, how do i make 100 trades?
lets say you have $1000
tarde with $100 only, increase the leverage. but cap your results.

I sell after +$20 OR -$10 = (sell with 20% profit or 10% loss)

you lose? no problem. your next trade should be with $90 (you lost 10)
I sell after +$18 OR -$9 = (same 20%/10% cap as before)

over time, you get better results and your hit rate improves. then you can increase your sizing.

/
TIMEFRAME

choose a timeframe and stick to it.
you cant long the bitcoin ETF on a 5Minute timeframe. the effects of ETF will manifest on the Monthly chart.
stick to shorter timeframes (15 minutes, most ideal for me) but be aware of the 4 Hour trends.
 
Last edited:
***
about the youtubers!
if it's not a trade, opened and closed on a livestream it's fake.
they make money from youtube and their subscribers, so they dont even need to be a profitable trader
 
CryptoserA said:
Q1: Are you an Investor or Trader?
As an investor you set a timeframe and a goal, buy and forget about it.
A long term investor is not deterred by 80% down-swings. and cannot be shaken out of a position with a mere 100% profit.
This is the winning strategy for majority of market participants.

As a trader you need to actively manage your portfolio.
This is a game of information asymmetry. Those who know first, make more money.
You need to be on twitter, telegram, discord, follow the news from 100 different sources...
You need an edge to win, there are 100s of different strategies to trade but remember you are playing against math-camp whiz kids, Multi-Billionaire Harvard PHDs and High Frequency algorithmic trading bots.


Also remember RISK = REWARD
Outsized winning come from taking on more risk.
But whatever you do, DO NOT LOSE IT ALL
If you got scammed and are left with nothing but a LESSON how you are going to start over?
Click to expand...

but if you are not a "trader" and can't get bothered with all this
there is an easier way.
it's a cheat code that is like having a coin that gives you head :sneaky: 60% of the time
 
There are many stock traders (with much more experience) than crypto tranders and I think only around 1% of them actually make profit. There is a massive difference between investing and trading and think of how many rich . famous traders you know, probably 0.

Great quote from David Shapiro the only way traders make money is by selling courses or products.

Trading can be profitable if you spend hours infront of your pc and do actuall research but investing takes way less time and returns vs risk ratio is much bette.
 
CryptoserA said:
HIT RATE

think of trading as flipping coins. only 2 possible outcomes: Win/ Loss
they say flipping coins is 50/50 but sometimes you get three heads in a row?!?!?!?!?!
the 50/50 is the aggregate result of a bunch of flips.
so if you flip 5 times, you may get 3 heads, 2 tails
if you flip 500 times, maybe 270 heads, 230 tails.
but if you flip 5 million times, it is guaranteed to be 50/50 with a very very small deviation.

in other words,
you see a youtuber making banks with leverage. ask yourself what is their hit rate?!? ***
dont ask if they made money on the "LAST" trade,
see if they made money on the last 100 trades.
dont expect to make money from your first trade,
see how many successful trades you make in general.

/
SIZING

but im a noob, how do i make 100 trades?
lets say you have $1000
tarde with $100 only, increase the leverage. but cap your results.

I sell after +$20 OR -$10 = (sell with 20% profit or 10% loss)

you lose? no problem. your next trade should be with $90 (you lost 10)
I sell after +$18 OR -$9 = (same 20%/10% cap as before)

over time, you get better results and your hit rate improves. then you can increase your sizing.

/
TIMEFRAME

choose a timeframe and stick to it.
you cant long the bitcoin ETF on a 5Minute timeframe. the effects of ETF will manifest on the Monthly chart.
stick to shorter timeframes (15 minutes, most ideal for me) but be aware of the 4 Hour trends.
Click to expand...
It isn't 50/50 imo

It is possible to only pick losing trades day in day out

Avoid magin/leverage until you have a high hit rate or if you play without stop losses
 
L-Dog said:
There are many stock traders (with much more experience) than crypto tranders and I think only around 1% of them actually make profit. There is a massive difference between investing and trading and think of how many rich . famous traders you know, probably 0.

Great quote from David Shapiro the only way traders make money is by selling courses or products.

Trading can be profitable if you spend hours infront of your pc and do actuall research but investing takes way less time and returns vs risk ratio is much bette.
Click to expand...

Scooby_Doo said:
Unless you have a Bloomberg terminal and 50+ analysts on the floor - you are not a trader.
Click to expand...

"Know thy counterparty"
- Sun Tzu

i think trading crypto is easier than traditional finance
the average forex or equity trader is much more informed than crypto traders.
in crypto you are trading against kids with $200 net worth. for example i told a friend to buy solana. he put R50,000 in the "BUY CRYPTO" widget on binance. he didnt use the P2p, didnt use limit order, didnt use trading page; chucked 50K into the BUY widget! then he asks me why binance charged him 5% more than coingecko.

/
at all comes down to your expectations!
if you expect to look at a chart for 5 minutes and double your money; you are already liquidated and dont know it.
because you will doube and triple and even more, then lose it all in one trade.

but if you follow a system and have patience you see the results.
that's the hard part: discipline and patience!
 
imagy-image (3).jpg

first of all make sure you don’t buy right after expansions.
Try to find stuff that has been ranging for a while.
Goal is to buy below the range and sell close to top of the range.
You will miss all the expansion always, but your downside is also limited.

The secret is to open many small positions together.
So instead of longing $1000 BNB we can long $100 worth of ten different coins:
3 AI coins
3 GameFi & NFT coins
2 Layer2 coins
2 GambleFi coins
etc etc

What makes this easy?!?!?

you can apply this strategy to any timeframe.
You can trade the 5 minute chart with it, or the weekly chart.

You can also use any indicator you like.
Use it with RSI reset for example. Monitor the RSI and buy the oversold coins, sell on the top of range.

or use it with EMA Cross. Same principal.
 
CryptoserA said:
View attachment 1659276

first of all make sure you don’t buy right after expansions.
Try to find stuff that has been ranging for a while.
Goal is to buy below the range and sell close to top of the range.
You will miss all the expansion always, but your downside is also limited.

The secret is to open many small positions together.
So instead of longing $1000 BNB we can long $100 worth of ten different coins:
3 AI coins
3 GameFi & NFT coins
2 Layer2 coins
2 GambleFi coins
etc etc

What makes this easy?!?!?

you can apply this strategy to any timeframe.
You can trade the 5 minute chart with it, or the weekly chart.

You can also use any indicator you like.
Use it with RSI reset for example. Monitor the RSI and buy the oversold coins, sell on the top of range.

or use it with EMA Cross. Same principal.
Click to expand...

oooh how can i open 10 positions if i cant manage one?
you open one 20X lev and cant manage it

open one position today
total leverage: 0.1X
if you have $1000, open a $100 position; dont do 20,000!

this is not capital effeceint, your sharpe ratio will be horrandous. but 2% profit in your pocket is better than a potential 50% loss!
 
CryptosEra said:
"Know thy counterparty"
- Sun Tzu

i think trading crypto is easier than traditional finance
the average forex or equity trader is much more informed than crypto traders.
in crypto you are trading against kids with $200 net worth. for example i told a friend to buy solana. he put R50,000 in the "BUY CRYPTO" widget on binance. he didnt use the P2p, didnt use limit order, didnt use trading page; chucked 50K into the BUY widget! then he asks me why binance charged him 5% more than coingecko.

/
at all comes down to your expectations!
if you expect to look at a chart for 5 minutes and double your money; you are already liquidated and dont know it.
because you will doube and triple and even more, then lose it all in one trade.

but if you follow a system and have patience you see the results.
that's the hard part: discipline and patience!
Click to expand...
Yea theory is easy
Making it a reality not as easy

Do 23 trades only making 3% profit every time, your money is doubled, sounds easy

If only emotions,discipline and patience was that easy
 
CryptosEra said:
View attachment 1659276

first of all make sure you don’t buy right after expansions.
Try to find stuff that has been ranging for a while.
Goal is to buy below the range and sell close to top of the range.
You will miss all the expansion always, but your downside is also limited.

The secret is to open many small positions together.
So instead of longing $1000 BNB we can long $100 worth of ten different coins:
3 AI coins
3 GameFi & NFT coins
2 Layer2 coins
2 GambleFi coins
etc etc

What makes this easy?!?!?

you can apply this strategy to any timeframe.
You can trade the 5 minute chart with it, or the weekly chart.

You can also use any indicator you like.
Use it with RSI reset for example. Monitor the RSI and buy the oversold coins, sell on the top of range.

or use it with EMA Cross. Same principal.
Click to expand...
That all bogus. Any predictable pattern will be (stat) arbitraged out, so the only people making the money will be those doing the stat arb.
 
L-Dog said:
There are many stock traders (with much more experience) than crypto tranders and I think only around 1% of them actually make profit. There is a massive difference between investing and trading and think of how many rich . famous traders you know, probably 0.

Great quote from David Shapiro the only way traders make money is by selling courses or products.

Trading can be profitable if you spend hours infront of your pc and do actuall research but investing takes way less time and returns vs risk ratio is much bette.
Click to expand...
Trading can be a lot more profitable, with the right expertise, but as you say, it’s probably less than 1% of traders that are profitable in all market conditions, and these traders usually have a ton of math, research, and technological resources that give them an edge. The vast majority of traders are going to do a bit worse than 50/50.
 
CryptosEra said:
open a random chart.
any random coin
and tell me if in the last 6 months it wasnt trending up

/
let me say it again:
Click to expand...
That means nothing. Their prior gain trends are always priced in.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top
Sign up to the MyBroadband newsletter
X