There has been a lot of discussion over this issue. If you haven't heard, Microsoft will not be updating Windows Phone 7 devices with Windows Phone 8 when it releases later this year (rumors set the date as early as Sept).
Many people have asked me what I think about this, and basically, I think they are doing the right thing. I'm not crazy, and I have my reasoning, which I will explain as briefly as possible below. My opinion is based on a combination of internal and public knowledge.
Back when Windows Mobile 6.5 was released, Microsofts position in the mobile world was slipping fast. At the same time that I bought my 6.5 device, a friend got an iPhone. I was very proud of it, until I used his. The experience was just incomparable. It was clear that the iPhone was built with touch in mind. 6.5 just really wasn't. It was like Blackberry tacking on touch - it just sucks. Plus my 6.5 device was very, very slow. So essentially, Microsofts position was slipping, and their competition was quickly dominating the market that they had been complacent in for so long. While this was all happening they were developing Windows Mobile 7 which was basically the next iteration (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWV436jfvp0). At some point in 2009 (nearer the end) Microsoft realized that this was no iPhone competitor, and scrapped the project (article on WM7 beta specualtion: http://gizmodo.com/5353040/windows-mobile-70-might-be-in-beta-now-on-phones-in-april-2010). The problem was that their marketshare was dropping fast so they needed a new platform, one which could compete with iPhone, plus it needed to be out soon. By Feb 2010 Microsoft had somehow managed to build a new platform, building off the same solid base as 6.5: http://gizmodo.com/5471805/windows-phone-7-series-everything-is-different-now
Their number 1 goal was to get a good phone out before it was too late. Not to try take over the market, but just to keep their foot in the door.
Once released, people were rather confused about why Microsoft did no (well, hardly any) advertising for it. Until 7.5 was released, and then it became clearer. Microsoft had it's foot in the door, but didn't want to bring a whole load of expectant customers onto an admittedly immature platform. Once mango rolled out, they started doing a lot more advertising, but still nothing close to what they could do with all their money.
So why was Microsoft sabotaging their own platform? It's simple really. They knew from the start that there was little chance that they could get WP8 to run on their older devices. These older devices were made in a hurry, and were never meant to kill the iPhone/Android. They have always has an end-game goal of Windows Phone 8, which aligned with their Windows 8 strategy. So they pushed the platform enough to show people that they were very serious about the whole thing, but now enough to get a massive marketshare. A couple years later, and hardly any people have WP7 devices (in relation to the competition), which means that THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE BACKLASH about not getting WP8 devices. I know it seems like a big deal now, but it really is a non-issue. OK, so companies like Vodacom are making it worse by advertising it now, literally just before it's released, but think about that for a second: The people that buy a WP7 now, are the same people that don't realize that phones even get updates, and couldn't care what it's running.
So from this point on here is what is going to happen:
Microsoft will release Windows Phone 8, and around the same time, Windows 8. There will be more advertising for both than you have ever seen from Microsoft (yes, it will inevitably be delayed here). Until then, blogs/news outlets who like sensationalism (i.e. all of them - it just comes with the territory) will tell the world how horrible Microsoft is, and how they are skrewing over their users. In truth, those users will mostly not care, and there will be very little repercussions to MS (I know this sounds hard to believe - but mark my words).
So why can't Microsoft get WP8 on WP7 devices?
The truth of the matter is that they probably could get WP8 to work on the older devices. But why would they? 80% of the new features in WP8 are using hardware that doesn't exist in WP7 devices. Added to that the kernel and new OS would take a lot of manpower to maintain on both new and old devices. And what for? The few users that WP7 has? IMO they are making a very wise decision by using those resources elsewhere.
And what about fragmentation?
People say that this is causing fragmentation. It's not. This is stopping fragmentation!
Let's pretend that WP8 was loaded onto WP7. Now a dev wants to make an app. He looks at the functionality he needs and see's that there is no NFC or other functionality that his app needs, so he just makes a traditional WP7.5 app. This now works on WP7.5 and WP8, and the world rejoices. A while later he wants to make an NFC (to keep with the example) app. He makes it for WP8, and it obviously only runs on WP8. But he still rejoices, because if it was targeting both WP7 and WP8, then all the WP7 app would do is fail because there is no NFC.
So basically, most of the new functionality in WP8 is stuff that WP7 devices simply can't do, so it would be POINTLESS to have WP8 loaded on WP7 devices. In some cases there is no reason why a WP7 device couldn't do a Phone 8 feature, but then it comes down to the manpower thing I mentioned above.
My point is that this is not fragmentation. Really. And as an app developer I am perfectly happy with MS's route.
OK, so that was much longer winded than I though, plus it's probably terribly explained. It would be easier to explain in person - so if someone want's to chat you can take me out for a beer ;-)
Standard troll disclaimer: These are my opinions. You don't have to agree with me, I don't even expect that you will. And that's fine.
Many people have asked me what I think about this, and basically, I think they are doing the right thing. I'm not crazy, and I have my reasoning, which I will explain as briefly as possible below. My opinion is based on a combination of internal and public knowledge.
Back when Windows Mobile 6.5 was released, Microsofts position in the mobile world was slipping fast. At the same time that I bought my 6.5 device, a friend got an iPhone. I was very proud of it, until I used his. The experience was just incomparable. It was clear that the iPhone was built with touch in mind. 6.5 just really wasn't. It was like Blackberry tacking on touch - it just sucks. Plus my 6.5 device was very, very slow. So essentially, Microsofts position was slipping, and their competition was quickly dominating the market that they had been complacent in for so long. While this was all happening they were developing Windows Mobile 7 which was basically the next iteration (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWV436jfvp0). At some point in 2009 (nearer the end) Microsoft realized that this was no iPhone competitor, and scrapped the project (article on WM7 beta specualtion: http://gizmodo.com/5353040/windows-mobile-70-might-be-in-beta-now-on-phones-in-april-2010). The problem was that their marketshare was dropping fast so they needed a new platform, one which could compete with iPhone, plus it needed to be out soon. By Feb 2010 Microsoft had somehow managed to build a new platform, building off the same solid base as 6.5: http://gizmodo.com/5471805/windows-phone-7-series-everything-is-different-now
Their number 1 goal was to get a good phone out before it was too late. Not to try take over the market, but just to keep their foot in the door.
Once released, people were rather confused about why Microsoft did no (well, hardly any) advertising for it. Until 7.5 was released, and then it became clearer. Microsoft had it's foot in the door, but didn't want to bring a whole load of expectant customers onto an admittedly immature platform. Once mango rolled out, they started doing a lot more advertising, but still nothing close to what they could do with all their money.
So why was Microsoft sabotaging their own platform? It's simple really. They knew from the start that there was little chance that they could get WP8 to run on their older devices. These older devices were made in a hurry, and were never meant to kill the iPhone/Android. They have always has an end-game goal of Windows Phone 8, which aligned with their Windows 8 strategy. So they pushed the platform enough to show people that they were very serious about the whole thing, but now enough to get a massive marketshare. A couple years later, and hardly any people have WP7 devices (in relation to the competition), which means that THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE BACKLASH about not getting WP8 devices. I know it seems like a big deal now, but it really is a non-issue. OK, so companies like Vodacom are making it worse by advertising it now, literally just before it's released, but think about that for a second: The people that buy a WP7 now, are the same people that don't realize that phones even get updates, and couldn't care what it's running.
So from this point on here is what is going to happen:
Microsoft will release Windows Phone 8, and around the same time, Windows 8. There will be more advertising for both than you have ever seen from Microsoft (yes, it will inevitably be delayed here). Until then, blogs/news outlets who like sensationalism (i.e. all of them - it just comes with the territory) will tell the world how horrible Microsoft is, and how they are skrewing over their users. In truth, those users will mostly not care, and there will be very little repercussions to MS (I know this sounds hard to believe - but mark my words).
So why can't Microsoft get WP8 on WP7 devices?
The truth of the matter is that they probably could get WP8 to work on the older devices. But why would they? 80% of the new features in WP8 are using hardware that doesn't exist in WP7 devices. Added to that the kernel and new OS would take a lot of manpower to maintain on both new and old devices. And what for? The few users that WP7 has? IMO they are making a very wise decision by using those resources elsewhere.
And what about fragmentation?
People say that this is causing fragmentation. It's not. This is stopping fragmentation!
Let's pretend that WP8 was loaded onto WP7. Now a dev wants to make an app. He looks at the functionality he needs and see's that there is no NFC or other functionality that his app needs, so he just makes a traditional WP7.5 app. This now works on WP7.5 and WP8, and the world rejoices. A while later he wants to make an NFC (to keep with the example) app. He makes it for WP8, and it obviously only runs on WP8. But he still rejoices, because if it was targeting both WP7 and WP8, then all the WP7 app would do is fail because there is no NFC.
So basically, most of the new functionality in WP8 is stuff that WP7 devices simply can't do, so it would be POINTLESS to have WP8 loaded on WP7 devices. In some cases there is no reason why a WP7 device couldn't do a Phone 8 feature, but then it comes down to the manpower thing I mentioned above.
My point is that this is not fragmentation. Really. And as an app developer I am perfectly happy with MS's route.
OK, so that was much longer winded than I though, plus it's probably terribly explained. It would be easier to explain in person - so if someone want's to chat you can take me out for a beer ;-)
Standard troll disclaimer: These are my opinions. You don't have to agree with me, I don't even expect that you will. And that's fine.
