No-win situation for Eskom

[BusinessTech]

No-win situation for Eskom

Eskom has been hiking maintenance to record levels and trying to suspend load shedding at the same time - and it just doesn't work.

 

[Harold_Crick]

Death spiral go brrrr.

 

[porchrat]

This is a radical right winger article. @TheChamp assures me Eskom is improving consistently. He hasn't seen stage 6 in ages.

He will be along shortly to explain why this article, like all the others, is mistaken.

 

[porchrat]

Pokes at Champy and his objectively incorrect views on Eskom aside. Their current maintenance levels aren't even that high. I saw figures down in the 7GW range the other day. Still somewhat high, but a far cry from the massive 9GW+ they were running a month ago.

They still run insanely close to the edge in a seemingly unsustainable manner. I'd rather have 2 stages higher on loadshedding or something and know that's temporary pain giving Eskom room to actually make improvements. As it stands it just seems they're constantly losing ground.

I suppose that approach is not good for the elections though, so it won't happen. Party before country.

 

[konfab]

Pokes at Champy and his objectively incorrect views on Eskom aside. Their current maintenance levels aren't even that high. I saw figures down in the 7GW range the other day. Still somewhat high, but a far cry from the massive 9GW+ they were running a month ago.

They still run insanely close to the edge in a seemingly unsustainable manner. I'd rather have 2 stages higher on loadshedding or something and know that's temporary pain giving Eskom room to actually make improvements. As it stands it just seems they're constantly losing ground.

The problem is Eskom cannot afford it. When they have load shedding, they make less money.

As the first poster in this thread said:

Death spiral go brrrr.

They are f__Ked.

 

[porchrat]

The problem is Eskom cannot afford it. When they have load shedding, they make less money.

As the first poster in this thread said:



They are f__Ked.

They can't afford to have loadshedding, because they make less money, so instead they burn diesel at a R7/kWh loss?

I mean... if you say so...

 

[konfab]

They can't afford to have loadshedding, because they make less money, so instead they burn diesel at a R7/kWh loss?

I mean... if you say so...

Burning the diesel to hit stage 2 is retarded, but fundamentally they have a massive revenue problem whenever they do loadshedding.

The OCGT are a resource that should only really be used during the peaks. Which is what they are designed to do. They are not designed to be run to cover continuous breakdowns.

 

[Lupus]

Burning the diesel to hit stage 2 is retarded, but fundamentally they have a massive revenue problem whenever they do loadshedding.

The OCGT are a resource that should only really be used during the peaks. Which is what they are designed to do. They are not designed to be run to cover continuous breakdowns.

Which is generally what they do attempt to do, there were 2 days last week they ran them more


But generally it was only peaks, and Monday.

 

[Mystic Twilight]

The problem is Eskom cannot afford it

If only they had a few billion in their bank account that they could borrow from the guptas, oh wait.

 

[konfab]

Which is generally what they do attempt to do, there were 2 days last week they ran them more
View attachment 1654544

But generally it was only peaks, and Monday.

There is a lot of continuous OCGT generation...

 

[porchrat]

Burning the diesel to hit stage 2 is retarded, but fundamentally they have a massive revenue problem whenever they do loadshedding.

The OCGT are a resource that should only really be used during the peaks. Which is what they are designed to do. They are not designed to be run to cover continuous breakdowns.

I understand that they have a revenue problem when loadshedding happens. They sell less electricity, obviously it impacts their revenue. People also jump ship to alternatives more and more which further impacts revenue down the road.

I'm simply pointing out that the running on the ragged edge with OCGTs like they do is just dumb. It doesn't solve the revenue problem (if anything it makes it worse) AND it doesn't give them the space they need to actually make improvements to the system for the long term.

So many fewer people would be jumping to solar if they could see higher shedding levels, but a consistent increase in health of the generating fleet because Eskom was finally making responsible decisions. Yes loadshedding levels would be higher, but they would be temporary. Instead they behave irresponsibly and irrationally.

 

[Lupus]

There is a lot of continuous OCGT generation...

The red is OCGT generation, there is 2 days last week and Monday that have quite a bit yes, not optimal correct. But it's not every day, all day as people seem to believe.

 

[Jer1cho]

This is a radical right winger article. @TheChamp assures me Eskom is improving consistently. He hasn't seen stage 6 in ages.

He will be along shortly to explain why this article, like all the others, is mistaken.

He is an ignoramus bar none when it comes to this topic. He doesn't care about how the game works, only the players involved. The same with politics. The Dunning Kruger effects finest mascot.

 

[Lupus]

I understand that they have a revenue problem when loadshedding happens. They sell less electricity, obviously it impacts their revenue. People also jump ship to alternatives more and more which further impacts revenue down the road.

I'm simply pointing out that the running on the ragged edge with OCGTs like they do is just dumb. It doesn't solve the revenue problem (if anything it makes it worse) AND it doesn't give them the space they need to actually make improvements to the system for the long term.

So many fewer people would be jumping to solar if they could see higher shedding levels, but a consistent increase in health of the generating fleet because Eskom was finally making responsible decisions. Yes loadshedding levels would be higher, but they would be temporary. Instead they behave irresponsibly and irrationally.

But they aren't running on the ragged edge with OCGTs, hence why we have Load shedding. There were 2 days last week where they ran them more then usual, but they aren't running them all day every day.

 

[konfab]

I understand that they have a revenue problem when loadshedding happens. They sell less electricity, obviously it impacts their revenue. People also jump ship to alternatives more and more which further impacts revenue down the road.

I'm simply pointing out that the running on the ragged edge with OCGTs like they do is just dumb. It doesn't solve the revenue problem (if anything it makes it worse) AND it doesn't give them the space they need to actually make improvements to the system for the long term.

So many fewer people would be jumping to solar if they could see higher shedding levels, but a consistent increase in health of the generating fleet because Eskom was finally making responsible decisions. Yes loadshedding levels would be higher, but they would be temporary. Instead they behave irresponsibly and irrationally.

The opposite happens fam. Every time load shedding gets really bad, more people jump to solar.

The only way out for Eskom IMO is for them to change their revenue model to keep solar users connected to the grid. But they won't do that because they are retarded. Something like a 1kW solar tariff, whereby you can use all the electricity you want, but its peak cannot exceed 1kW. That makes a grid connection really nice to keep your fridge running during the night and all, but you primarily get most of your energy via solar, and you use batteries to cover the peak.

 

[porchrat]

But they aren't running on the ragged edge with OCGTs, hence why we have Load shedding. There were 2 days last week where they ran them more then usual, but they aren't running them all day every day.

They don't have to run them all day every day for my point to stand. They do it when their reserves drop because they don't want to increase loadshedding stages. Just look at this:

Jordaan said Eskom would have been well aware of this eventuality because, by Friday, it had already run down its pumped storage reserves to 25% and had to rely on independent open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) for two days solid at a load factor of 70%.

I mean come on. This shouldn't be happening. Increase the loadshedding stages temporarily if that's the case. Stop burning diesel at a massive loss.

Then afterwards we'll often get the loadshedding stage increase ANYWAY because now they need to replenish their diesel reserves. It's madness.

 

[porchrat]

The opposite happens fam. Every time load shedding gets really bad, more people jump to solar.

No fam. People jump because loadshedding increases alongside the continuation of irresponsible behaviour by Eskom.

We've never been in the situation I described earlier, with loadshedding levels raised, but raised with transparency from Eskom indicating what improvements are being made with the space provided by increased loadshedding and those improvements actually happening i.e. EAF actually rising.

The only way out for Eskom IMO is for them to change their revenue model to keep solar users connected to the grid. But they won't do that because they are retarded.

The government needs to get out of the way of all these IPP projects honestly. Eskom just becomes a middle-man. Reselling the power other people produce reliably.

 

[Lupus]

They don't have to run them all day every day for my point to stand. They do it when their reserves drop because they don't want to increase loadshedding stages. Just look at this:


I mean come on. This shouldn't be happening. Increase the loadshedding stages temporarily if that's the case. Stop burning diesel at a massive loss.

Then afterwards we'll often get the loadshedding stage increase ANYWAY because now they need to replenish their diesel reserves. It's madness.

But that is what the OCGTs are designed for, they are designed to handle peaks or when needed, sure technically they aren't supposed to be run as long and as hard. But they are meant to prevent stages of shedding or grid collapse. Remember that load shedding has an impact on the economy as well and sometimes running the OCGT comes out cheaper then the lose in business.

 

[grok]

They don't have to run them all day every day for my point to stand. They do it when their reserves drop because they don't want to increase loadshedding stages. Just look at this:


I mean come on. This shouldn't be happening. Increase the loadshedding stages temporarily if that's the case. Stop burning diesel at a massive loss.

Then afterwards we'll often get the loadshedding stage increase ANYWAY because now they need to replenish their diesel reserves. It's madness.

Sums it up perfectly: madness


But hey at least our esteemed minister of electricity can jive a tune on demand..

 

[porchrat]

But that is what the OCGTs are designed for, they are designed to handle peaks or when needed, sure technically they aren't supposed to be run as long and as hard. But they are meant to prevent stages of shedding or grid collapse. Remember that load shedding has an impact on the economy as well and sometimes running the OCGT comes out cheaper then the lose in business.

They're designed to handle peaks. They're not designed to run for 2 days straight to replenish the pumped storage reserves Eskom burnt through because they didn't want to raise loadshedding levels. Only then to have loadshedding levels raised ANYWAY to replenish the diesel they just burnt.

You're out of pumped storage? OK... raise loadshedding levels and use the extra space to restore pumped storage reserves. Don't burn the diesel for 2 days straight.