Post election ANC-DA coalition likely
Atkins said public opinion polls showed a clear possibility of the ANC going below 30% in Johannesburg
30 OCT 2026
While odds are stacked against the ANC in making an impact in the big metros of Johannesburg and Cape Town, a post-election ANC-DA coalition could be in the offing, according to experts.
As the two leading members of the GNU at national government prepare to face off in the local government polls, independent election analyst Michael Atkins, this week said the significance of the polls would lie in the conduct of parties during coalition negotiations.
“Irrespective of any possible legislation, we need to build up a culture of respect across divides, where the needs of voters are prioritised over short-term interests,” said Atkins.
Atkins said public opinion polls showed a clear possibility of the ANC going below 30% in Johannesburg.
“A key implication would be the possibility of an overhang, where the ANC retains more wards than the total PR (proportional representation) seat allocation.
“This gap could be as high as five seats, meaning the ANC without PR councillors,” he added.
Despite some decline in the Cape Town DA support, its provincial results in 2019 and 2024 were better than at national level - pointing to the party’s core local support remaining intact.
Predicting the likelihood of a hung council in Johannesburg, Professor Sethulego Matebesi of the University of Free State and head of the Department of Sociology, quoted the MarkData poll, which placed the DA at 35% and the ANC at 21.8%.
“Polls like this, struggle to model who will actually vote in low-turnout local elections.
“While the DA will do well in Johannesburg, it will keep its mayoralty of Cape Town.
“But an outright majority is uncertain in Cape Town.
“Political parties like the Patriotic Alliance will garner significant electoral support – something that will decrease the DA’s support.
“For this reason, a high turnout matters more than any campaign issue,” said Matebesi.
In Cape Town, turnout would decide whether the DA would keep its majority.
He said a post-election coalition environment would be “a real test for political parties and voters”.
“We have noted how black voters have openly associated themselves with parties like Freedom Front Plus.
“Going forward, it will be interesting to see what impact this shift will have on the outcome of the elections and the next episode of national and provincial elections,” said Matebesi.
With DA Johannesburg mayoral candidate Helen Zille having ruled out a possibility of an EFF and MK Party coalition, the ANC was set to be a perfect partner.
[More at https://mg.co.za/news/south-africa/2026-10-30-post-election-anc-da-coalition-likely/]