poweralert stage 2.....

[Brian_G]

 

[Lupus]

View attachment 1550879

 

[Lupus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1676277349816446976

 

[wingnut771]

Master energy expert @Lupus, what is your prediction for peak energy demand for 2023?

 

[Lupus]

Master energy expert @Lupus, what is your prediction for peak energy demand for 2023?

I've not reached master yet and it's Energy Axpert...
It's been an odd winter so far, not as cold as the previous 3 years. I'm going to say 35GW if it gets colder, if we have stage 6 it'll be 36.
If it remains like this, almost 34GW

 

[wingnut771]

I've not reached master yet and it's Energy Axpert...
It's been an odd winter so far, not as cold as the previous 3 years. I'm going to say 35GW if it gets colder, if we have stage 6 it'll be 36.
If it remains like this, almost 34GW

Energy Axpert, what was last years peak?

 

[Brian_G]

It's been an odd winter so far, not as cold as the previous 3 years.

More regular predictions for up here still showing these warmish temps. through to mid July.

 

[Lupus]

More regular predictions for up here still showing these warmish temps. through to mid July.

Yeah see its going to about 20

 

[Lupus]

Energy Axpert, what was last years peak?

Vaguely recall it being 34GW but I would need to check. I recall 35GW was in 2021 or 2020

 

[wingnut771]

Vaguely recall it being 34GW but I would need to check. I recall 35GW was in 2021 or 2020

I say this year will be less than last year as eskom death spiral continues and they sell less and less energy.

 

[Brian_G]

I say this year will be less than last year as eskom death spiral continues and they sell less and less energy.

Not a bad thing if it gives them a chance to catch up a bit. But I'm doubtful of even that.

 

[wingnut771]

Not a bad thing if it gives them a chance to catch up a bit. But I'm doubtful of even that.

A race to the bottom as the prices go up and the economy down. In 10 years our peak demand will be 10GW, just enough for Kusile, Medupi and Koeberg to manage at R20/kWh.

 

[Brian_G]

View attachment 1550817

This is also not looking good, possibly stage 1 during the day again

Can I bribe you to change you mind again?

 

[Lupus]

I say this year will be less than last year as eskom death spiral continues and they sell less and less energy.

Last years peak was just under 34GW, 33 694 and it was the 12th July, from August it starts dropping again
2021 we actually had total capacity hitting 35GW, 2022 it would hit 34GW now we barely make 29.

 

[Priapus]

So back at 29GW. That’s progress right? Summer will be just fine then ?

 

[Lupus]

So back at 29GW. That’s progress right? Summer will be just fine then ?

Maintenance goes up in Summer so it will be back to 24

 

[Priapus]

Maintenance goes up in Summer so it will be back to 24

Unless they decide not to do it? As elections will be right around the corner.

 

[Brian_G]

Unless they decide not to do it? As elections will be right around the corner.

Not really, still over 6 months to go from there and they do suffer from tunnel vision.

 

[Nom Chompsky]

Maintenance goes up in Summer so it will be back to 24

But we will be (at least projected) all 3 Kusile units back online (by Dec. 2023) + I think one of the new Medupi plants (unit 5 or 6?) will have been connected to the grid. So in theory, we should have an extra 3GW by December.

 

[Lupus]

But we will be (at least projected) all 3 Kusile units back online (by Dec. 2023) + I think one of the new Medupi plants (unit 5 or 6?) will have been connected to the grid. So in theory, we should have an extra 3GW by December.

And the Chinese make great copies of products and the sky is full of pixies... It is possible yeah, as technically Koeberg unit 1 was supposed to be synched back to the grid by now, then it was moved to August, then September.