poweralert stage 2.....

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Lupus said:
So possibly a stage 3 right through or stage 3 during the day stage 4 at night, another 1GW down from yesterday even, so in total a 2GW from Saturday already.
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Too much embarrassment with this week's announcements, sure they'll push the diesel.
 
I mean here is Sunday
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So somehow on Tuesday they lost 3 generator units on Tuesday?
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Were they small units? Cause that's only 89GW lower? Sure the demand was 1.3GW higher, but it wasn't stage 3 worthy, could've remained at stage 2 as you can see by the load shedding.
 

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I finally watched the latest about PetroSA from Carte Blanche (unfortunately not (yet?) free to see for some reason).

Gave me a bit of a fright with new coastal gas field deals going on, looks like there's a chance that some new manifestation of state-capture is involved. Time for the ANC to be de-throned!
 
So refreshed, better then yesterday, but I mean still worse then Tuesday
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Another industry discussion on the role of gas-to-power and the coming gas shortage for SA industry:
www.engineeringnews.co.za

Local gas supplies not likely to come on stream in time for South Africa to avoid a 'gas cliff'

Although gas is widely regarded as a necessary part of South Africa’s future energy mix, Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) head of mitigation Steve Nicholls is not convinced that a reliable source of local gas supply will be brought to bear in time for the approaching “gas cliff”. The...
www.engineeringnews.co.za www.engineeringnews.co.za

It's really quite a complicated situation right now (if only plans had been put in motion years ago) as the various plans for new electricity generation, gas infrastructure and industrial development are so interlinked but conflict in some ways.
- A consortium of Vopak and Transnet Pipelines has now been selected as the preferred bidder to build an LNG import terminal at Richard's Bay, which is a key part of plans for the development zone there, but even if plans advance rapidly 2028 is probably the very earliest it'll be operational.
- Gas users in South Africa face being cut off in 2026, affected companies include ArcelorMittal, Ardagh Group, AVI, BrotherCisa, CBC Fasteners, Ceramic Industries, Coca-Cola, Corobrik, Hulamin, Highveld, Illovo, Ingrain, Mondi, Nampak, Norcros, Premier, PFG Building Glass, South32, South African Breweries, Rand Refinery and the Scaw Metals Group - representing a big part of the economy.
- Imported LNG is the only short-term option but will cost more than double what they currently pay for Moz gas through Sasol.
- The proposed LNG terminal in Mozambique could be ready sooner than Richards Bay, but all our industrial demand comes to about 50 petajoules a year, you need at least 100 PJ/y to make the $500million import terminal viable.
- So gas to power plants will be required to generate more demand. But our announced plans for gas power plant procurement are for flexible plants (gas is good at filling in for variable sources, peaking, or covering for tripped baseload units) situated in SA. So not enough volume and not in Moz.
- If the Moz terminal does get going then where will the 100+PJ/y demand for the Richard's Bay terminal come from? Will have to be more gas-to-power plants. More power would be nice, but that's a lot of expensive imported LNG and long-term commitments.

Developing our own offshore fields would be great of course, but is years off and would require big up-front investment, with uncertainty over global demand/prices by the time production finally ramps up.

But hey, our "Gas Master Plan" is being presented to cabinet this month so maybe someone will resolve all these competing objectives and sort everything out.
 
600MW down from yesterday, but at least the demand is lower
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But maybe some good news?
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Haha today we've had no power at all since 3am. Now 3pm and still nothing, no ETR.

Stolen cables :love:
 
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