Property Market 2011 - Predictions

Viper25

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To the MYBB property market experts :

Any predictions for the market in 2011?
Slow down? Worse than 2010? Improvement?

Auction Alliance chief executive Rael Levitt thinks it will weaken further.

Cape Town - The housing market appears to be ending the year "with a fizzle", auctioneers Auction Alliance said in a review released on Wednesday.

The company said its strong year-end results reflected a property market characterised by lacklustre buyer demand but strong growth in distressed sales.

"A subdued housing market suggests that the year is ending with a fizzle, leaving many investors questioning whether the market will deteriorate further in 2011," it said.

Historically low interest rates stimulated entry level residential homes and tenants in commercial property, but the broader market was "weak all year, particularly at the top end".

Pre-2010 Fifa World Cup property optimism was overtaken by the realities of a lacklustre global economy, constrained bank funding and a stubborn local recovery.

South Africa was now following most North Atlantic countries, where the negligible costs of borrowing had simply not kickstarted the property market.

"The bottom line is that next year we won't have the World Cup to boost infrastructural spend, tourism, mid-year retail and most importantly investor sentiment," said Auction Alliance chief executive Rael Levitt.

"It appears as if real estate is set to weaken further in 2011."

Auction Alliance ended the year 22% ahead of budget, with R5.2bn of assets sold at auctions over the year.

http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Housing-market-loses-fizz-20101222
 
Hard to say I guess. What I am seeing, is that it is harder and harder to become a first time buyer.
I had ben putting off buying because I was toying with the idea of going overseas, have just purchased a place, and am super glad i did.
I see more and more people renting because they simply cant afford a bond. And when they can, they have outgrown the place they would be able to afford and simply rent a larger place.

The places you get for your money now is also a joke. 4 ways areas, 2 bedroom places are like 65 s/m for 650k+....thats just disgusting
 
The places you get for your money now is also a joke. 4 ways areas, 2 bedroom places are like 65 s/m for 650k+....thats just disgusting

65 seconds per metre? :p That not too bad yet, seen a couple new flats with ±60m² for close to R1mil :wtf:
I'm hoping things dont pick up just yet, looking to buy another place next year
 
65 seconds per metre? :p That not too bad yet, seen a couple new flats with ±60m² for close to R1mil :wtf:
I'm hoping things dont pick up just yet, looking to buy another place next year

hahahaha, yeah, my bad :)
1 bar is insane!!! But my point is, its no longer the exception that these places are pricey for small living areas, its becoming the norm.
I had to look pretty hard for a place which has decent sized rooms, good finishes and still has a decent price.
Also considering buying a second property, but worried about the interest rate. If it goes up on 1 property its ok, if it keeps going up and u have 2 places it can become an issue crazy fast.
 
Heard a few months ago that it will slow down, prices will go down aswell. So if you are a buyer it will be a good year. Seller not so great.
 
2 bed place in a decent area for R650k?.. thats a bargain...

Decent areas in Durban are starting at R750k - R900k... :sick:
 
Yeah, its difficult for first time buyers to get into the property market right now.
However, I think it will still be a buyers market next year.

I want to buy a second property next year, but saving up for a minimum 10% deposit is not so easy.
 
I think it's going to be a while before the property market picks up.
I estimate at least 2 years before we see strong growth again.

Reason why I think so is because household disposable income is going to be under pressure for a while due to:
1. Increase in electricity rates
2. Increase in municipal rates
3. Increase in travelling costs particularly in Gauteng due to tolling from Jun 2010
4. Increase in food and goods prices as a result of the tolling and labour unions demanding 10%+ salary increases
5. The labour market is still very depressed and it will take a while for business to pick up and hence for job opportunities to become available

I just hope the inflation rate and interest rates stay low for a couple of years while I pump money into my bond.
My fear is that the cost of living is going to increase substantially which will force SARB to increase the repo rate.
 
Just bought a property recently as well. I managed to put together a decent deposit which helped a lot in securing a bond. But ye it's becoming increasingly difficult to get a bond these days especially if you buying a lot. There are some decent bargains out there you just need lots of time and patience
 
Yeah, its difficult for first time buyers to get into the property market right now.
However, I think it will still be a buyers market next year.
I want to buy a second property next year, but saving up for a minimum 10% deposit is not so easy.

I disagree.

1. House prices are low. Medium size houses are easily 20 to 30% undervalued compared to 3 years ago.
2. Banks are giving up to 100% bonds again. A year ago 90% was the max most people could get from the banks. The best I got was 85% at prime + 0.5%.
3. Interest rates are extremely low. Lowest in 30 years in fact.

If people can't purchase undervalued houses with cheap finance (prime is 9%) now then they will never be able to get into the housing market.
Once the house prices and prime lending rates start increasing it will be even more difficult.
 
2 bed place in a decent area for R650k?.. thats a bargain...

Decent areas in Durban are starting at R750k - R900k... :sick:

Fourways, Lonehill & Sunninghill - 2 bed, 1 bath, +/-64sqm = R750k+
New Summercon 1bed 64sqm loft apartments in Bryanston and Lonehill sell for R850k directly from Summercon :eek:

Property is just too damn expensive!
 
I disagree.

1. House prices are low. Medium size houses are easily 20 to 30% undervalued compared to 3 years ago.
2. Banks are giving up to 100% bonds again. A year ago 90% was the max most people could get from the banks. The best I got was 85% at prime + 0.5%.
3. Interest rates are extremely low. Lowest in 30 years in fact.

If people can't purchase undervalued houses with cheap finance (prime is 9%) now then they will never be able to get into the housing market.
Once the house prices and prime lending rates start increasing it will be even more difficult.

When I said that its difficult for first time buyers to get into the property market right now,
I meant compared to say 2004, 2005. When I bought my first property back then, I was offered a 108% loan.
I didnt need a deposit, I didnt need to worry about bond costs, so it was much easy to get into the property market back then compared to now. ;)
 
I meant compared to say 2004, 2005. When I bought my first property back then, I was offered a 108% loan.

Ah okay. Yeah I agree then.
I bought a house last year June in the height of the downturn.
I got a good price for the house (830K, 3 bed, 2 bath, 240m2, 1000m2 property in half decent area) but a 15% deposit and prime +0.5% didn't make me savour the deal.
Now to get out of the debt trap ...
 
Ah okay. Yeah I agree then.
I bought a house last year June in the height of the downturn.
I got a good price for the house (830K, 3 bed, 2 bath, 240m2, 1000m2 property in half decent area) but a 15% deposit and prime +0.5% didn't make me savour the deal.
Now to get out of the debt trap ...

Wow, thats a great price. May I ask what area?
In fourways/sunninghill/lonehill all you get for 830K is a matchbox sized cubicle.
 
Wow, thats a great price. May I ask what area?
In fourways/sunninghill/lonehill all you get for 830K is a matchbox sized cubicle.

Pretoria, near Rietvallei Dam.
Northern suburbs in JHB are ridiculous. I hunted around there and couldn't find anything below R1 million for a tiny 3 bedroom apartment.
 
One thing seems clear though: similarly to 2010 property prices will continue to appreciate in both euros and dollars. Good news for anyone getting ready to do the inevitable :)
 
Yeah, its difficult for first time buyers to get into the property market right now.
However, I think it will still be a buyers market next year.

I want to buy a second property next year, but saving up for a minimum 10% deposit is not so easy.

If there's equity on your first prop. you can use some of it.. just an option
 
I'm not as pessimistic as the economists. I see modest average house price growth (maybe 8%), but stronger growth in desirable areas - Northern and Central Suburbs, some part of the East Rand, etc. (maybe > 15%). Just my gut feel, of course, but I'm also hearing positive things from my suppliers and seeing increased development in prime areas.

I also see residential rentals increasing faster than inflation. We're asking 10% more on new leases than our existing tenants are paying. :D

As for first time buyers, I'm not that sympathetic to them. If they were sensible, they'd have saved up for a deposit from their first pay cheque, and bought their first place in their 20s; not bought a flashy car (on credit) with their first pay cheque and then upgraded that car 3 years later. I did a back of the envelope calculation once, and it showed that by keeping their car for six years (oh the humanity) instead of five, the average professional could retire with an extra five bar in the bank.

Anyway, here hoping for another prosperous year.
 
Hi,
Whenever I read about jhb north, it is associated with fourways, sunninghill and lonehill.

Why, isn't there any mention/thought of paulshof and petervale?
Just curious. What are your thoughts on these areas?

Edit: throw in magaliesig as well
 
Hi,
Whenever I read about jhb north, it is associated with fourways, sunninghill and lonehill.

Why, isn't there any mention/thought of paulshof and petervale?
Just curious. What are your thoughts on these areas?

Edit: throw in magaliesig as well

Paulshof & Petervale are not in the same league as the other three areas hence the lack of mention. I personally dislike these two areas.
 
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