SA Politics Thread Part 10 : The GNU Has Crashed

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Priapus said:
That's because blatant racism has no place in today's society, online or otherwise. Responding to it or engaging it, just fuels it more. I said it the other day, I am surprised they've not been banned as yet.

I'm all for difference of opinions and happy to hear opposing views; as long as it's not blatant racism. There's no point in getting into such "debates"

It's also why people like @TheChamp -- who are not on my ignore list. Whilst I disagree with their views and opinions on a lot of things; they're not racist and thus their views and opinions deserve to be heard and debated on.
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Technically sideshow should be ignored as well, cause they are clearly feeling a little insuperior and racist. Always race baiting and chipping in with their crap
 
Lupus said:
Technically sideshow should be ignored as well, cause they are clearly feeling a little insuperior and racist. Always race baiting and chipping in with their crap
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You seem to be new here when some of brackenfell members stereotype entire black population as 30 percenters or is racism against blacks ok now because of BEE apartheid ?

Oh - I forgot - your braai buddies.. can't talk against the tribe, right ?
 
I just received my first invoice for the May which includes the VAT hike.
 
Sideshow Bob said:
You seem to be new here when some of brackenfell members stereotype entire black population as 30 percenters or is racism against blacks ok now because of BEE apartheid ?

Oh - I forgot - your braai buddies.. can't talk against the tribe, right ?
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Ah yes, more race cards. Another for the ignore list. Tsjek with your kak
 

Two recent polls have introduced the theoretical possibility that the DA could beat the ANC in a national election, with the next scheduled for 2029.

First came the Social Research Foundation's report that polled an ANC without President Cyril Ramaphosa as leader. Ramaphosa's term as ANC leader expires in 2027, and in 2029, the ANC will have a new leader when it goes to the polls.

At the moment, only two contenders have put up their hands: Paul Mashatile and Fikile Mbalula. According to the SRF, an ANC minus Ramaphosa would achieve only 21% at the polls today. The DA would score 28%, and 19% of voters remain "free agents", meaning undecided.


READ | ANC's fading grip: DA gains traction as polls show seismic voter shift

The ANC's choice of leader in 2027 will naturally have a massive impact on those who are undecided. Mashatile comes with a baggage of allegations of impropriety, while Mbalula is seen as populist and erratic.

Following the SRF poll, the Institute of Race Relations released theirs, which was conducted telephonically after the Budget debacle in Parliament. The results were as devastating for the ANC: only 29.7% of voters would today vote for them, while the DA scored 30.3%.

The IRR's poll wasn't modelled for turnout. And if all the SRF's "free agents" voted for the ANC, they are back at 40%.


But two trends stood out for me in these polls: firstly, without Ramaphosa (which is given in 2029) the ANC is vulnerable to further electoral losses. The second point is the one I want to dwell on today: the DA is experiencing an exceptional period of growth. Why and is the party ready to govern if the electorate so decides?

Firstly, the party's participation in the government of national unity (GNU) has undoubtedly been a success. The perception of the DA's impact in government is one of competence and fixing.

I randomly ask South Africans what they think of the GNU's performance, particularly the DA's ministers. The answers are almost always positive (including from staunch ANC supporters), and the examples cited include Leon Schreiber's reforms at Home Affairs, Dean Macpherson's exposure of shenanigans at the Independent Development Trust and John Steenhuisen's success in negotiating a VAT increase down from 2 percentage points to 0.5.

The DA's critics say their public relations are better than their real performance. However, people like Schreiber have real examples to bring to the table. His changes in scarce skills and tourism visa regimes have brought immediate relief to the economy.
What has any ANC minister done in the past ten months that had a similar impact?

The IRR poll estimates that the DA's support from black voters has increased from only 5% of the electorate to 18%. This is a seminal change if true.

The DA's lifelong struggle has been to break into the black electorate. It would be fascinating if the party finally, under Steenhuisen's leadership, managed to move the needle on black support, not because of a black leader, but because of the party's performance in government.

Could Steenhuisen's successful negotiations to prevent a 2 percentage point VAT hike be his lasting legacy as DA leader?

The party is scheduled to convene its federal congress in the first half of next year. I'm increasingly hearing that Steenhuisen may not run again for party leader (he would have completed six years in the seat).

This poses a big question for the DA: who do they elect as leader, not only to lead the party into next year's local government elections (scheduled to take place towards the end of the year) but also into 2029 when, if the polls are to be believed, the DA could become the largest party in South Africa?


I wrote in January that Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis was, in my view, the frontrunner to succeed Steenhuisen. My view hasn't changed. The party's Gauteng leadership has been known to behave idiosyncratic at times. Still, I cannot seriously see how Gauteng leader Solly Msimanga would beat Hill-Lewis in a two-horse race.

Hill-Lewis would be the perfect candidate going into next year's municipal elections with the Cape Town success under his arm. There is no debate that Cape Town is the best-run metro in the country.

In 2021, the ANC only managed to attract 34% of the vote in Johannesburg and the DA 26%. It would be interesting to see a poll on this, but I would be stunned if the DA didn't surpass the ANC in next year's election in the City of Gold.

Johannesburg is a city in collapse. Many residents I spoke to recently believe the city only has "one more chance" to salvage itself from further doom and decay. That chance is next year's local government election. As DA leader, Hill-Lewis could make a compelling case that he knows what it takes to fix and run a city.

READ | ANC sees polls as reason not to kick DA, FF+ out of GNU

The DA is unlikely to win Johannesburg outright, and our coalition nation will continue locally and nationally.

The same scenario is likely to play out in 2029. Even if the DA becomes the largest party, it will not easily get to 50% and will need to govern in a coalition or GNU.

If he ascends, Hill-Lewis will need to negotiate a government with Mashatile, Mbalula or whoever becomes ANC leader in 2027.

And if the DA becomes the largest party in four years, does that mean Hill-Lewis will become the sixth president of a democratic South Africa? Or could a Mashatile-led ANC, even at a much lower percentage, form a GNU with the MKP and EFF, and leave the DA as largest party outside the door?


With South African politics in flux, nothing is outside the realm of possibility.

- Adriaan Basson is editor-in-chief of News24.
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Never thought I'd see the day that the DA or GHL gets a positive article like this from N24 of all places...
 
ShaunSA said:
New Dawn schills like Ferial and Bafoon must accept their role in this and start washing some feet.
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Yup, everything is fcked, and we’re completely independent bystanders who just report the news…. Why are you looking at us? 👀👀
 
Bl4d3 said:
Brilliant.

Somalia has such a bad unemployment crisis that people literally turn to piracy.
Ukraine, in the midst of all out war, has a lower unemployment rate than us.

Viva ANC
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It would seem logical to wonder why SA's unemployed haven't turned to piracy etc shirley? Is it that many are actually employed in the "informal economy" and/or that this plus the plethora of grants available along with free water, electricity, rates etc keeps them from (further) turning to what many/most would regard as criminal activity?
 
Does anyone know if the judge has ruled on the VAT court case yet or if judgment has been reserved?
 
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