SA Politics Thread Part 10 : The GNU Has Crashed

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The DA losing a ward to the MK is like the ANC losing a ward to the Freedom Front, it doesn't matter by how many votes, it just makes a much bigger statement.
I think it clearly shows the level of desperation that the ANC have forced the average SA voter into.
 

President Patrice Motsepe on the cards? Not so far-fetched as ANC lobbying gets under way, writes Andisiwe Makinana.


Would Patrice Motsepe be able to replicate Mamelodi Sundowns' success at the helm of South Africa's biggest political party?

Serious lobbying is under way in some ANC circles for Motsepe to replace his brother-in-law, Cyril Ramaphosa, come December 2027 at the next ANC national conference.

The lobbying has gone as far as a creation of a slate which features Motsepe as incoming ANC president, with national executive committee (NEC) member Senzo Mchunu as his deputy, and Eastern Cape ANC chair Oscar Mabuyane as secretary-general.


Sports writers have good things to say about Motsepe, who has just started his second term as president of the Confederation of African Football (CAF). They credit him for dragging African football into the modern era, bringing in revenue and sponsorship to the organisation and making sure countries are looking after their football infrastructure.

"CAF is now a well-run organisation. What he truly did was to bring pride to CAF," said one.

This is the kind of track record of delivery and accomplishment the ANC is looking for.

Bringing back respectability


While Motsepe has never indicated an interest in entering the political space, his supporters believe he would bring respectability among the black middle class, township voters, and young people, lifting the party to about 45% and making it easier for the ANC to form a coalition.

They point out that Motsepe has thrown his money at the ANC and at its alliance partners, and likes being at the centre of political action. He's a regular at their conferences - attends and observes.

Four ANC insiders confirmed the murmuring in the party about one of the country's richest men being considered for the position - and eventually for the Union Buildings.

They believe Motsepe will get the support of the working class voters, the ANC's alliance partners. He also holds appeal for the middle class - both black and white - and the youth.

"We've been discussing for years that Patrice one day will want to enter the stage, and in the ANC, he's well respected. His being Cyril's brother-in-law is not an issue. He is a man with his own voice. He's not inherited anything because of Cyril," said one insider.

"Imagine in the townships where we struggle to get people to go out and vote … do you think the president of Sundowns Football Club can't get the township people out? He'll get the vote out; he is going to get those."

With about 30 months to go before the ANC elects its next president, lobbying for a presidential candidate is already under way.

The names of current Deputy President Paul Mashatile and secretary-general Fikile Mbalula as possible successors to Ramaphosa were thrown around the minute the party's last elective conference adjourned in December 2022.

In recent weeks, Mashatile has been criss-crossing the country, delivering political lectures. That is ANC speak for campaigning for internal elections.


One of Motsepe's lobbyists rhetorically asks: "If you are given a choice between Paul, Fikile and Patrice, I bet on Patrice getting the support".

This is the president who would have to pull the party out of the government of national unity (GNU) and back into an ANC (alone) government.

A continuation of Ramaphosa

But some members aren't so convinced, claiming that in some quarters Motsepe is seen as a continuation of Ramaphosa and "a media candidate".

"As much as his name is out there, he will be viewed as a continuation of Cyril, and the ANC frowns upon "anointed" candidates.

Those not sold on Motsepe also point to the fact that he's an outsider who has not served in ANC structures, unlike Ramaphosa who had risen through the party ranks and was party deputy president when he succeeded Jacob Zuma in 2017.

However, to Motsepe's lobbyists, his being an external candidate is a positive thing.

"The society wants an outsider, someone outside of politicians, and he's an outsider with credibility," said one.

The belief is that Mchunu, a former KwaZulu-Natal premier and Cabinet minister would bring government experience to the Motsepe leadership but more importantly the crucial KwaZulu-Natal vote, which largely turned to the MK Party in last year's elections.

The party hopes to claw back support from the Jacob Zuma's MKP, which is facing internal ructions and is struggling to stamp its authority as official opposition both at national level and in the province.

They would be happy if the Motsepe-Mchunu combination delivers 35% of the KwaZulu-Natal vote. The ANC dropped from 54% in 2019 to 17% in 2024. Mabuyane would bring the Eastern Cape on board, a staunch ANC-supporting province.

Key to Motsepe's success, though, they say, would be a smooth handover between him and Ramaphosa.

This would happen if Ramaphosa stepped down when his term as ANC president ended, allowing Motsepe a head start, or if he finished his term, he would have to enable Motsepe to focus on campaigning.


The expectation would be for Motsepe to continue with Ramaphosa's push for renewal and fixing things.

Unlike Sundowns which is SA's most successful team but fails to attract supporters, would Motsepe succeed in resurrecting the ANC and bringing back voters?

- Andisiwe Makinana is News24's political editor.
 

He's crashing out. Already reeing about "transformation" and Apartheid. Please let the DA win this too...
ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula has strongly criticised the DA for taking legal action against Employment and Labour Minister Nomakhosazana Meth.

The DA approached the Gauteng High Court in Pretoria to challenge the constitutionality of the Employment Equity Amendment Act.

Speaking to reporters at the party's Luthuli House headquarters in Johannesburg on Wednesday, Mbalula said "the DA's hatred for transformation has become shameless".

On Tuesday, News24 reported that DA MP Michael Bagraim said in a statement that the act gives the minister unchecked power to enforce rigid quotas.


According to the DA, real transformation comes through inclusive economic growth, not "divisive race-based quotas".

Bagraim said:

The DA has launched a constitutional challenge to Section 15A of the Employment Equity Amendment Act, which introduces rigid national race quotas in the workplace. These quotas will destroy jobs, undermine the economy, and violate the constitutional rights of all South Africans.
"We are taking the Minister of Employment and Labour to court because Section 15A represents a radical and harmful departure from previous employment equity law. Where companies once set their own equity goals based on context and the available labour force, they are now compelled to meet government-imposed demographic targets, regardless of skills, local realities or business viability."


The DA's court case is expected to be heard on 6 May.

Mbalula said the ANC would defend the hard-won labour rights that generations of workers had fought for.

"Our steadfast rejection of the DA's attempt to use the VAT increase as political extortion underscores this commitment. Behind the scenes, the DA was not only bargaining for Budget concessions — they were pushing for a new labour regime that would allow employers to dismiss workers without due process, dismantle affirmative action, and roll back transformation," he said.

"We will not relent in defending the progressive legal and constitutional framework that protects workers today. We will never allow the working class to become collateral damage in Budget negotiations. Instead, the ANC will continue to champion a growing, inclusive economy that brings more South Africans — especially young people, women, and rural communities — into the labour force, with dignity and security."

Mbalula said the ANC denounced the DA's court challenge against the Employment Equity Act.

"It is not only a legal manoeuvre — it is a calculated political stunt, launched on the eve of Workers' Day, aimed at reversing three decades of democratic gains. It is an affront to workers, to the poor, and to our national Constitution. This is part of a broader pattern," added Mbalula.

He said the ANC warned ahead of the 2024 general elections that the DA had consistently opposed transformative legislation, including the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act, National Health Insurance Act, Expropriation Bill, and now the Employment Equity Amendment Act.

"In the Western Cape, under DA leadership, employers are advised not to comply with equity legislation, and South Africans are told not to expect preference in employment.

"This is made worse by the DA-aligned campaigns of Solidariteit and AfriForum, who tour foreign capitals like the United States to spread lies about the ANC 'lynching' minorities — treasonous distortions that insult the spirit of unity and undermine our democratic sovereignty."

"Let us be clear: the Employment Equity Act is not an attack on anyone — it is a constitutional imperative. Its recent amendments, achieved through Nedlac (National Economic Development and Labour Council) consensus, ensure sectoral targets that reflect regional realities, support SMMEs (small, medium and micro enterprises), and hold employers accountable in state contracts. These reforms are modest, rational, and necessary."

Mbalula added that the ANC would not surrender to "elitist apartheid nostalgia or legal posturing."
 

As the ANC gears up to press the reset button, the party’s secretary-general Fikile Mbalula has confirmed that a meeting has been scheduled with its government of national unity (GNU) partners to tweak the rules of engagement.

Speaking at a media briefing at their Luthuli House headquarters in Johannesburg on Wednesday, Mbalula underscored the need to avert public clashes like the fallout over the recent fiscal framework debacle in Parliament.

The upcoming discussions will tackle key issues, including the conduct of ministers and the effectiveness of the clearing house mechanism, a dispute resolution committee within the GNU.

"We will be meeting as the GNU to reset the button. How should we work, and how do we want to arrange it? These shenanigans have been happening where ministers are doing as they wish in the GNU, others are ducking out of the country, going to the United States, and all of that. South Africans are looking at the executive. They don't look at political parties," said Mbalula.

The briefing took place shortly after Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana briefed the nation on processes expected to unfold after the scrapping of the 0.5 percentage point VAT increase.

Godongwana will now, for the third time, table a Budget on 21 May.

Mbalula said it's going to be a tough road ahead for the GNU.

"We are going to have a meeting of the GNU where we are going to discuss how we want to work going forward. We've got a clearing house. We are sitting here, a minister is taken to court on a policy matter by a partner in the GNU. We need to look at that clearing house. Is it working? How do we deal with such issues?"

Mbalula said the reset was aimed at addressing the conduct of political parties in the political arrangement and not in the government.

"We need to relook issues [being flagged] and address a lot of issues going forward so that we avoid unnecessarily clashing and do the right thing."

He echoed sentiments shared by DA leader John Steenhuisen, who last week said the GNU needed to find mechanisms to contain disputes.

Mbalula maintained that no one was forced to stay in the GNU marriage and that the DA, if not happy, could walk away.

On the Budget, Mbalula said those claiming victory in the scrapping of the VAT increase were being disingenuous.

He said:

This outcome is not a legal victory for anybody, but the decisive political resolution rooted in consultation, maturity, and the guiding principles of the Freedom Charter.


Mbalula was referring to the now-withdrawn DA and EFF court challenge in the Western Cape High Court over the proposed VAT increase.

He said government work must be shaped not by courtrooms and media spectacle, but through democratic consultation and constructive consensus building.

"The political decision to reverse the VAT increase was reached after substantive engagement between the ANC and 10 other parties in Parliament, all of whom demonstrated discipline, focus, and patriotic clarity," he added.

On calls for Godongwana to resign, Mbalula said ministers must commit a major transgression for them to resign. For the ANC, the calls for Godongwana to go were completely irrational, he said.

According to Mbalula, what did the minister of finance commit, except the fact that the proposals he brought to the fore were disputed, particularly around the VAT increase?

He said South Africa should avoid a "weekend special" situation at all costs.

Mbalula was referring to former president Jacob Zuma's 2015 decision to replace former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene with the then-little-known Des van Rooyen, only to reshuffle him days later.

Asked why the ANC does not divorce the DA, Mbalula said the ANC was not in a hurry to dismiss people in the GNU, nor was the party intimidated by its presence.

Mbalula said that even if a decision was taken to replace the DA, it does not mean the replacements will be allies of the ANC.

"We don't have a marriage with anyone. We don't have a marriage with the DA or any other political party. That is why anytime if they want to walk away, they can. The DA can walk away, any political party in the GNU can, and then we will address the question of what happens when they have left. Do we lock the doors?"


Mbalula said the DA was grappling with being in government and still wanting to be the opposition.

"They are finding it difficult to negotiate the two. That's what they are doing as a political party, and all the time, the DA is opposed to something, it represents their colours, their ideology, it's who they are."

Mbalula also took a swipe at EFF leader Julius Malema's "flip-flopping", saying he was willing to work with the ANC provided it elbowed out the DA and FF Plus in the GNU, only for the EFF to vote with the DA against the fiscal framework.

If the DA walks away, he said the party was willing to work with all political parties.

"We'll continue to talk with all parties, including the DA. We are not threatened by the DA shenanigans."

Mbalula said the ANC was also aware that a motion of no confidence could be tabled against President Cyril Ramaphosa in Parliament.

He was referring to Malema's utterance on Tuesday, in which he warned that if the ANC continued on its current trajectory, Steenhuisen could one day be the president.

"We'll deal with it when it happens. It's possible that anything of that sort can happen, but don't think that we are folding our arms and we are not alert to that. We are very much awake to it. That's why I responded to the leader of the EFF and I said, 'You saying motion of no confidence, but you didn't vote for the president. We defeated you with your 44 votes. Cyril Ramaphosa got 283 votes."

Mbalula said it was the nature of South Africa's political fabric that somebody will raise a motion of no confidence.

This was also true in coalition governments.


Weighing in on the Budget, Zuko Godlimpi, the ANC chair of the subcommittee on economic transformation, said it was politically risky to think that legislation can only be passed or amended through court declarations.

"That's the point that the DA sometimes misses. The DA has committed to this idea that the only way there could be progress [is that] it must go to court," said Godlimpi.

ANC chief whip in Parliament Mdumiseni Ntuli added it was unfortunate that what was otherwise one of the best budgets in the country in a long time could not be discussed rationally because of the contentious VAT matter.

"If you look at that Budget in its totality, I would still argue that it had the potential to take our country in the right direction, but the VAT clouded the debate."

Ntuli said the DA opportunistically exploited the issue of the VAT increase.

"Honest South Africans will know that the genuine concern of the DA has not been the VAT. The VAT was a scapegoat and unfortunately, because it's a contentious issue, they had to use it in order to reinsert themselves into a positive national conversation about the Budget, about the ANC walking away from the poor and all of that," said Ntuli.
 
Cronje correctly characterizes the ANC's VAT capitulation as the same kind of loss as their 39% tragedy. It showed that they are weak and beatable. Conversely, the DA came out looking strong and resolute. You can push forward with policy proposals they don't agree with at your own peril

 
The ANC has a fundamentally flawed management structure with a terrible leader. Their NEC has too many people with too many diverse and opposing factions. Coupled with Serial who will only take decisions on consensus. The NEC can never agree and Ramaposer can not force an unpopular but correct decision. Therefore you get madness like forcing a VAT increase until you have to embarrassingly rescind before the courts force you. This will be the story until the DA overtakes the ANC.
 
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