Scottish Independence survey

[zippy]

Some interesting results from this survey:

http://news.sky.com/story/1201211/scottish-independence-46-percent-dont-mind

Some 46% of those outside of Scotland asked to imagine waking up and finding the country independent from the rest of the UK said they "wouldn't mind", while 34% said they would be dismayed and 11% said they would be delighted.

When adults in Scotland were asked the same question, there was more evidence of the task facing Alex Salmond, the leader of the Sottish National Party, and the Yes campaign - with 46% saying they would be dismayed and just a quarter saying they would be delighted.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Interesting. Braveheart would be saddened.

Independence doesn't mean what it used to, though.

 

[Vox Populi Vox Dei]

Interesting. Braveheart would be saddened.

Independence doesn't mean what it used to, though.

Well part of the problem is Scotland would be bankrupt without English subsidising them (Scotland is a net receiver of tax).

Scotland would also not automatically be part of the EU & and which currency would they use?

 

[bwana]

Well part of the problem is Scotland would be bankrupt without English subsidising them (Scotland is a net receiver of tax).

Scotland would also not automatically be part of the EU & and which currency would they use?

The Haggis?

 

[Arthur]

Well part of the problem is Scotland would be bankrupt without English subsidising them (Scotland is a net receiver of tax).

Scotland would also not automatically be part of the EU & and which currency would they use?

Being a nett receiver of tax doesn't necessarily mean they'd be bankrupt. That's a very extreme and unlikely claim.

Poorer, perhaps. Or slightly less rich, to be more accurate. But not bankrupt.

Matters like currency and membership of trade associations are trivial and resolved in two ticks.

It is very reductionist to collapse the debate into mere economic considerations. Principles are primary, and if life and limb are not immediately threatened, these should be tabled and discussed. Otherwise you simply sell out to the highest bidder.

The Scots have a long and proud history - largely aspirational since the Picts - of political independence and self-determination. Not everyone likes being ruled by their neighbour, even if he invites you to meetings in his own house and feeds you with gravy you wouldn't otherwise have.

Personally, I can understand that. And I can sympathise with the aspiration to recover full self-control.

 

[ponder]

Well part of the problem is Scotland would be bankrupt without English subsidising them (Scotland is a net receiver of tax).

I was under the impression scotland paid more towards taxes than what spending they are allocated, their debt % is also lower than that of the uk. Then there's the north sea oil & gas reserves which could contribute to a substantial % of the gdp

EDIT: (Yes i know it's wikipedia.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland#Relationship_with_the_United_Kingdom

Relationship with the United Kingdom

In the run up to the referendum on Scottish independence opinions on the likely state of a post-UK Scottish economy are varied. Some commentators believe that a current account surplus would accrue to Scotland (including oil and gas revenues).[71] In response, a spokesman for finance secretary John Swinney referred to “the UK’s deteriorating growth outlook" and noted that Scotland was the only area of the UK outside London to record output growth between 2007 and 2010 and that "among the 12 nations and regions of the UK, Scotland is the third most prosperous in terms of output per head – behind only London and the South East of England.”[72]

Scotland has 8.4% of the UK population, 32% of the land mass and generates 9.9% (£56.9bn) of UK tax revenues, and receives 9.3% (£64.5bn) of UK spending back from Westminster.[73] In 2011-2012, this amounted to a budget deficit of 2.3% of GDP, lower than the UK's overall budget deficit for the same period of 6.0% of GDP.[73]

The Scottish unemployment rate stands at 7.3% as of April 2013, which is below the UK figure of 7.9%. Scotland's youth unemployment rate is also lower, standing at 16.1% compared to 20.6% for the rest of the UK.[74]

 

[Billy]

I was under the impression scotland paid more towards taxes than what spending they are allocated, their debt % is also lower than that of the uk. Then there's the north sea oil & gas reserves which could contribute to a substantial % of the gdp

EDIT: (Yes i know it's wikipedia.)





http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland#Relationship_with_the_United_Kingdom

If all the Scots were returned to Scotland from England those figures would change dramatically.

(It would also solve the flooding problems in England.)

 

[Paul Hjul]

Actually Scotland has more economic muscle than England and Wiki - with a citation to back it - suggests that Scotland net contributed to tax

The issue is that currently most of the North Sea profits accrue in England rather than Scotland.

In reality splitting up the UK is idiotic but Scotland already has its own superior legal system (and I mean both in that it is superior to English law and that it has autonomous superior courts) its own financial systems which whilst integrated into the Pound Sterling are not under the control of the Bank of England. What Scotland is missing is diplomatic representation and membership of the international community in its own right which can be well accommodated by a formal declaration of sovereignty etc ... while still preserving the United Kingdom. The UK Supreme Court (which is a bad idea anyway) would have to be reformed a bit but a nice Supreme Court of Appeal in London is not a bad way to go

 

[Arthur]

Spoken like a true Roman-Dutch lawyer. Amen.

 

[Vox Populi Vox Dei]

I was under the impression scotland paid more towards taxes than what spending they are allocated, their debt % is also lower than that of the uk. Then there's the north sea oil & gas reserves which could contribute to a substantial % of the gdp

EDIT: (Yes i know it's wikipedia.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland#Relationship_with_the_United_Kingdom

Here is the Economist's take on it. I will admit I was a bit quick off the mark...

Opinions on the economics of independence are starkly divided. Nationalists argue that, mostly thanks to North Sea oil and gas, Scotland subsidises the union and would be better off alone. The more sneering sort of unionist argues the opposite, that Scotland is a parasitic subsidy junkie.

Both are wrong, in the short term at least. Assuming it keeps the oil and gas extracted from under Scottish waters, an independent Scotland would currently gain roughly as much in taxes as it would lose in subsidies (see article).

The future, however, looks much dicier. This is a stormy economic world, and an independent Scotland would be a small, vulnerable barque. It would depend on oil for some 18% of its GDP, making it subject to shifts in global commodity prices. Though high oil and gas prices have pushed up tax revenues, if they drop production as well as receipts would plummet. The richest reserves have already been exploited, leaving inaccessible oil that becomes uneconomic when prices fall. North Sea production has been falling by about 6% a year for the past decade. Eventually the oil will run out entirely.

A small country is more vulnerable to other shocks. In 2008 the British government had to bail out Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and HBOS, Scotland's two biggest banks. At its peak, RBS's balance sheet was 13 times Scottish GDP. Edinburgh has faltered as a financial centre since, and would be hard to revive. There is a limit to how large a financial sector an independent Scotland—a new, small economy—could support. Mr Salmond has already rebuffed suggestions that he should take a share of RBS's £187 billion of toxic assets.

The sexy Swedish model

By virtue of its size, an independent Scotland's borrowing costs would almost certainly be higher: its bond market would be small and illiquid. But Scotland's biggest problem could be its currency. The SNP's enthusiasm for the euro has faded: it wants Scotland to stick with the pound for the moment. That would mean entering a monetary union without fiscal union, a set-up that has proved disastrous in Europe. Though Mr Salmond claims Scotland would enjoy automatic EU membership, European Commission lawyers are doubtful. A candidate Scotland would have to negotiate entry terms—and commit to join the euro one day

More reading here: http://www.economist.com/node/21552564

Arthur: Well that is how people are viewing the independence debate - through economic lenses (even if, as the article states below, it is not so much about EU/currency issues but about Scotland's own economy)

(Reuters) - The Scottish government brandished a drop in unemployment to its lowest in almost five years as proof of the strength of its economy, saying this backed its argument that Scotland would be better off as an independent country.

The unemployment rate fell 0.9 percentage points to 6.4 percent in the three months to November, giving Scotland a lower unemployment rate and higher youth employment rate than the rest of the UK where the overall jobless rate was 7.1 percent.

The figures came as a survey on Wednesday showed that the economy mattered more to voters ahead of September's independence vote than issues such as European Union membership and staying in a currency union with the British pound.

While most polls only show about 30 percent support for independence, a ScotCen Social Research survey found over half of voters, 52 percent, would support independence if breaking away made them 500 pounds a year better off.

By contrast, only 15 percent would vote to end Scotland's 307-year union with England if it made them 500 pounds a year worse off while 72 percent would oppose such a move.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/22/uk-scotland-economy-idUKLNEA0L00W20140122

 

[cr@zydude]

From what I have read most people's fear is the currency issue. If they can keep the pound support spikes. Most people agree that to join the EU they would need to join the euro zone.

 

[Spizz]

I was under the impression scotland paid more towards taxes than what spending they are allocated, their debt % is also lower than that of the uk. Then there's the north sea oil & gas reserves which could contribute to a substantial % of the gdp

EDIT: (Yes i know it's wikipedia.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Scotland#Relationship_with_the_United_Kingdom

There's a lot of information and misinformation being bandied about at the moment with regards to this and it's difficult to know who to believe.

But one thing is telling to me. If we are to believe the unionist argument that Scotland is a net beneficiary of the union and it does indeed receive more than it spends, why are they trying so hard to keep them?

The Tories have courted everyone from the BBC to Vladimir Putin in their efforts to retain the Scots. Why?

Well for a start they don't want their nukes back and the oil revenue is nice to have, but really, in all aspects from high ranking politicians and civil servants, to taxes, education and science, Scots have contributed more to the union than they have ever received.

As an expat I don't get the vote, but the way that the smarmy lying tories are conducting themselves in this campaign is insulting and I hope for a resounding YES.

 

[daveza]

Leave it up to the Scots to decide what they want.

If the state of England is anything to go by I would would in favour of going it alone before the rot seeps into Scotland.

 

[Paul Hjul]

Spoken like a true Roman-Dutch lawyer. Amen.

I am most certainly not sufficiently educated to be a Roman-Dutch lawyer

Also I have always been under the impression that a true Roman-Dutch lawyer was much like a true Scotsman
Beyond the Scots legal system: my sister carries a Scottish surname these days and I my matriculation was at St Andrews - the school not the University.

The real challenge the UK has in getting devolution right is actually England. Then there are also a few anomalies to figure out like Cornwall and Cambridge & the complete dump.

 

[bwana]

From what I have read most people's fear is the currency issue. If they can keep the pound support spikes. Most people agree that to join the EU they would need to join the euro zone.

Why would the UK want to let Scotland keep the pound?

 

[Paul Hjul]

Why would the UK want to let Scotland keep the pound?

um because "the UK" does not have a monopoly on the pound and if Scotland moved over to the Euro a whole pile of contracts and legal tender issues would arise

 

[bwana]

um because "the UK" does not have a monopoly on the pound and if Scotland moved over to the Euro a whole pile of contracts and legal tender issues would arise

Thanks - I've just read up a bit on currency substitution.

 

[ponder]

...why are they trying so hard to keep them?

Letting a liability go should be a no brainer, but obviously not in this case

I must actually ask these two ex pat scots at the pub what their feelings are just out of interest.

 

[ponder]

Thanks - I've just read up a bit on currency substitution.

Even if they don't keep the pound whatever new currency they create they can still pin that to the pound (1:1) if they wanted to but ja the uk can't stop them.

 

[cr@zydude]

Why would the UK want to let Scotland keep the pound?

Countries make money by having another use their currency. This works as long as the money does not get returned.

The Scots want to keep the pound but it won't be possible if they want to join the EU.