The Brexit Thread

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NarrowBandFtw said:
again comparing apples and oranges

when we talk of direct contribution to the EU political body you can't conflate it with the performance of either economy, the UK will feel it when they stop paying those stupid fees, as a nett positive to the EU political body's nett negative

I'm sure they won't complain about not wasting 8 billion anymore
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The collapse of the GBP has already cost the UK way more than a paltry 8 billion.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
Except polls mean f-all as Trump and Brexit showed us.

and more importantly, any EU member can trigger article 50 at will, Scotland cannot gain independence without the UK's permission

spot the difference?
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Any EU member wouldn't do that without a referendum first. And why would the UK deny democracy to Scotland? They're all about self-determination.
 
JayM said:
Any EU member wouldn't do that without a referendum first
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That's an assumption on your part, not enforced by legislation.

JayM said:
And why would the UK deny democracy to Scotland? They're all about self-determination.
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Because Scotland already voted and they voted wrong, not the UK's problem, they gave them the referendum they asked for when Brexit's referendum was already on the cards.

By UK-in-or-out-of-the-EU standards, you get those referendums once every 40 years, the Scots can wait.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
That's an assumption on your part, not enforced by legislation.
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You're going beyond the realms of fantasy here. No country is going to invoke A50 without a referendum backing it. Are you getting this nonsense from the Daily Mail?

Because Scotland already voted and they voted wrong, not the UK's problem, they gave them the referendum they asked for when Brexit's referendum was already on the cards.

By UK-in-or-out-of-the-EU standards, you get those referendums once every 40 years, the Scots can wait.
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But why wait though? The conservatives and brexiteers have already indicated that they don't mind if Scotland leaves.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
"collapse" :ROFL::ROFL::ROFL:

yeah speculative currency fluctuation that jumps up and down is now a permanent "collapse" ... pull the other one
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It's dropped 25% against the EUR since just before the referendum. To spin this as fluctuation or speculation is daft.
 
JayM said:
That seems rather arbitrary, since the amount will be split across all the remaining members of the EU. Germany alone could get the amount from petty cash and not notice. :laugh:
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Not how it works... you know how the EU Nett is determined right? Everyone will be paying more or receiving less in order to make up the loss.

Think of it this way. In a Socialist state X amount of tax payers pay for Y number of recipients of grants. Now if let's say Rupert removes his money from SA, that is a pretty big chunk of Revenue not being collected. So now X (-1) will have to make up that shortfall. Meaning EVERYONE in X now pays a bigger portion in order to balance the sheets. If that shortfall is not made up in collection, it's removed from Y in grants. So EVERYONE is affected one way or the other.
 
Pitbull said:
Not how it works... you know how the EU Nett is determined right? Everyone will be paying more or receiving less in order to make up the loss.
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No sh*t Sherlock. I'm saying the amounts are so small they are insignificant and will hardly be noticed.
 
JayM said:
No sh*t Sherlock. I'm saying the amounts are so small they are insignificant and will hardly be noticed.
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You sure?

I think look at those calculations again. What they bring and what they take out will have a massive impact on other EU members. Making the Nett €8b (Contribution/Loss) out to be nothing is making me laugh. That is an €8b Nett gain the EU needs to make up, not taking into account the contribution in total given.

Would have been different if the nett Gainer of €8b (Poland) left. But you're aware of that already...
 
Pitbull said:
You sure?

I think look at those calculations again. What they bring and what they take out will have a massive impact on other EU members. Making the Nett €8b (Contribution/Loss) out to be nothing is making me laugh. That is an €8b Nett gain the EU needs to make up, not taking into account the contribution in total given.

Would have been different if the nett Gainer of €8b (Poland) left. But you're aware of that already...
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If the population of the EU was like 100K, then it would be significant. But it's like 500M. Per capita the amount is miniscule...probably the price of a few pints or burgers. I guarantee you, the effect for people living in Britain is going to be far more than that.
 
JayM said:
It's dropped 25% against the EUR since just before the referendum. To spin this as fluctuation or speculation is daft.
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Spin?

Currency exchange rates change ALL.THE.TIME. and in the case of brexit it is purely based on sentiment, you know, seeing as brexit has not happened.

They've priced in all the worst assumptions, if brexit actually happens and the UK actually starts showing decent results the GBP will recover as certain as the sun will rise tomorrow.

Will you still be calling it a collapse then?
 
JayM said:
If the population of the EU was like 100K, then it would be significant. But it's like 500M. Per capita the amount is miniscule...probably the price of a few pints or burgers. I guarantee you, the effect for people living in Britain is going to be far more than that.
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No one is denying the people of the UK will feel it and feel it for sure. We've already covered that.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
Spin?

Currency exchange rates change ALL.THE.TIME. and in the case of brexit it is purely based on sentiment, you know, seeing as brexit has not happened.

They've priced in all the worst assumptions, if brexit actually happens and the UK actually starts showing decent results the GBP will recover as certain as the sun will rise tomorrow.

Will you still be calling it a collapse then?
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I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong. In fact I'll be happy full stop, I have over GBP100K in a IOM account and want to move to the UK. But so far all evidence points to the fact that things will be bad, for a very long time.
 
JayM said:
I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong. In fact I'll be happy full stop, I have over GBP100K in a IOM account and want to move to the UK. But so far all evidence points to the fact that things will be bad, for a very long time.
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I reckon it is far too early to tell if it will be good/bad/how long it will take to turn things around.

If the brits back themselves and really put their best efforts into making brexit work, I have no doubt they can make it into a positive. Even with a hard / no-deal brexit, as long as they execute it with intent and purpose it'll be alright in the end.

Admittedly happy to not have a vested interest either way though.
 
The brexiteers here make out that being part of the EU was the most terrible thing ever, like being enslaved and oppressed and the sooner it ends the better, as it will stop the suffering the poor brits have had to endure at the hands of the oppresive EU. Such utter BS. A negotiated exit that takes 2 years, or 10 years to complete would not be the tragedy they are trying to make out it would be. A proper transition period where business, finance and border related issues can be worked out, in good faith, would have been positive for everyone, but especially for the UK. It could have been all done with a recognition of a close relationship being maintained, a brexit done while maintaining friendship and support over a period of time. Instead it's become a UK full of bravado and arrogance, doing their best to insult and make an enemy of their neighbours. Suddenly the EU is the enemy who must be defeated. This will definitely turn out well for everyone :rolleyes:
 
C4Cat said:
The brexiteers here make out that being part of the EU was the most terrible thing ever, like being enslaved and oppressed and the sooner it ends the better, as it will stop the suffering the poor brits have had to endure at the hands of the oppresive EU. Such utter BS. A negotiated exit that takes 2 years, or 10 years to complete would not be the tragedy they are trying to make out it would be. A proper transition period where business, finance and border related issues can be worked out, in good faith, would have been positive for everyone, but especially for the UK. It could have been all done with a recognition of a close relationship being maintained, a brexit done while maintaining friendship and support over a period of time. Instead it's become a UK full of bravado and arrogance, doing their best to insult and make an enemy of their neighbours. Suddenly the EU is the enemy who must be defeated. This will definitely turn out well for everyone :rolleyes:
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You seem to be under the impression this is a UK vs EU situation. The UK is just the first domino to fall, mark my words.

and as the saying goes, if you are going to panic, panic first
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
You seem to be under the impression this is a UK vs EU situation. The UK is just the first domino to fall, mark my words.

and as the saying goes, if you are going to panic, panic first
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When is the EU going to collapse. Let's put money on it. I'll give you 10/1 odds, how about that?
 
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