The Brexit Thread

Ancalagon

Honorary Master
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Interestingly our very own Daily Maverick has a good article on how the The Guardian newspaper was corrupted by the UK government into being overwhelmingly anti Labour, and it is around this time that the anti Semitism slur started to appear. Apparently the number of actual anti Semites in Labour is extraordinarily low, but it just gets harped on and made into a big issue.

Which is not to say there is no issue, apparently the media just harps on about it.

Anyway, this whole thing is a mess. Corbyn could never win this, but his ego is too big for him to admit it. The Labour party needs new leadership.

My prediction is that the Tories will win with a comfortable majority, and Labour will get a drubbing. Hopefully, that will encourage those in the Labour party to grow a pair and kick him out - finally. He needs to go.

Some of Labour's policies are not bad. I don't agree with nationalising everything - that just doesn't work. But the social care framework, including the NHS, does need more money. That much is true. I don't feel comfortable with Corbyn wanting to spend so much money - Brexit may be bad for the economy, but its difficult to argue that Corbyn would be better if he bankrupts it. Yes, some of his spending would act as a stimulus, but not all of it.

Tories will win, Labour will get shafted, Lib Dems... a little better than 2017 but not much.
 

Dave

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Interestingly our very own Daily Maverick has a good article on how the The Guardian newspaper was corrupted by the UK government into being overwhelmingly anti Labour
I think someone is confused, the Guardian is relatively kind to Labour in editorial policies. The Tory attack dogs in the press are the Telegraph, Mail, Sun and Express.
 

Chris_the_Brit

High Tory
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Shame....Labour activists are very slow mentally. This was said after the great YouGov MRP poll came out last night with Labour decimated in the Midlands.
 

Chris_the_Brit

High Tory
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Busy placing bets on Ladbrokes. 8 bets so far with 5 more to go! Only one I'm bleak about is Canterbury which I have the Tories to regain but the YouGov model has Labour winning by a bigger margin than last time. Got Labour @2.25 in Cambridge a few nights ago. Feel dirty betting on Labour winning constituencies but all the forecast Tory gains have low prices mostly. Also have Labour winning Hartlepool @1.73.

North Norfolk is an interesting one...
 

Gingerbeardman

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In the lead up to the 2017 general election, YouGov's MRP projection model accurately predicted a hung parliament at a time when many other pollsters were indicating a Conservative majority. As Statista's Martin Armstrong details, the MRP technique (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) is used to make estimates for small geographies for which only small sample sizes are available. Anthony Wells, Director of Political and Social Research at YouGov, explains:


"It works by using an extremely large number of interviews to model people's voting preferences based upon their demographics and the local political circumstances. Once this model has been developed it is applied to the demographic make-up and political circumstances of each of the 632 constituencies in Great Britain, providing projected vote shares for each and every seat".
As the infographic below shows, the projections for 2019 are a far cry from the hung parliament predicted for 2017.


Polls are fake, amirite? :sneaky:
 

Dave

Honorary Master
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And people try to argue the Conservatives aren't using lies and fake news.

Google bans eight different Tory election adverts as disinformation concerns mount
Conservatives accused of using ‘fake news’ and disinformation to win election

Google has banned eight different adverts paid for by the Conservativesover the last month because they broke its rules, The Independent can reveal.

The move by the search giant comes amid mounting concerns about the Tories’ use of disinformation and fake news as campaigning tools at the general election.
 

OrbitalDawn

Ulysses Everett McGill
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