The Brexit Thread

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Opinions appear to be changing, who would have expected the Daily Mail to run a piece like this?

The Brexiteers used to tell us about the money that would be saved for the NHS and the jobs created through new trade agreements. Remainers warned that Brexit would be economically disastrous (albeit with an immediacy and exaggerated sense of drama that was probably counter-productive).

But there has been a subtle change. The Remain argument about economic damage is now largely accepted. Mounting evidence of a slowing economy and rising inflation give substance to earlier warnings. The issue has become one of how to minimise or postpone the damage. And instead of countering the arguments, more and more Brexiteers are embracing economic pain as a price worth paying for 'taking back control': almost as a badge of honour.

Last week saw a sinister twist in Brexiteers' tactics. Hardliner Iain Duncan Smith called on some of Britain's parliamentary trade envoys to be sacked. Their crime? Daring to criticise aspects of our withdrawal from the European Union.

One of the envoys (all of whom are unpaid and do it to serve their country) targeted as a result of Duncan Smith's intemperate attack was Lord Janvrin, the Queen's former private secretary. An ex-Royal Navy submarine officer and distinguished public servant with no political ties, he was 'named and shamed' merely for wanting to protect the rights of EU nationals.
Labour MP Rushanara Ali, trade envoy to Bangladesh, was another in Duncan Smith's firing line. She has won praise from diplomats for her efforts to boost Anglo-Bangladeshi trade. And, with Bangladeshi roots, she is better placed than Mr Duncan Smith or one of his fellow white, male, middle-aged Brexiteers to win trade.

Outrageously, the Right-wing Brexit Central website that launched Duncan Smith's tirade quoted an unnamed Minister as accusing the envoys of 'talking down our country' and said 'others in the Government feel the same way'.
This is how McCarthyism started. At this rate, we will have Brexit thought crimes before long. Perhaps it is not surprising that the Brexiteers are becoming desperate.

Rather than closing down dissent, they might like to explain how Britain can possibly flourish if cut off from the world's largest single market after what senior civil servants have called a scandalously wasted year, with Ministers waging civil war rather than working out what they want from Brexit.

Another concern is that the self-declared martyrs may be planning to sacrifice other people rather than themselves. It is striking that the martyrs appear predominantly elderly (indeed the YouGov poll confirmed that fact). This is unsurprising since 64 per cent of over-65s voted Brexit in the referendum and 71 per cent of under-25s voted Remain.

The martyrdom of the old comes cheap, since few have jobs to lose. And even if the country were to become poorer, their living standards are largely protected by the 'triple lock' on the state pension and many can rely on occupational, final salary, pensions which are closed to younger people. When I joined the Coalition Cabinet in 2010, we took pride in the 'triple lock' to banish the scourge of pensioner poverty. But one of its unintended consequences has been a growing rift between generations.

At the Election, the young took their revenge, or thought they had. They got behind Jeremy Corbyn, seeing in him a pro-European champion, and punished Theresa May's Tories for pursuing an extreme Brexit.

Little did they realise that Mr Corbyn detests the EU, believing it, and especially Margaret Thatcher's single market, to be a major obstacle to Britain embracing revolutionary socialism. And he is probably right about that.
Britain is now in a bizarre place with a Remain Prime Minister pursuing a hard, extreme Brexit and a Brexit leader of a Remain Opposition actively helping her. Only the Liberal Democrats are fighting to remain in the single market and customs union.

At the centre of government, meanwhile, there has been a shift in the balance of power.

The grown-ups, led by the Chancellor and Business Secretary, have been seeking to postpone Brexit for three years, keeping the full discipline of the single market, to give our companies time to adjust. Sensible enough, even though it is postponing pain rather than avoiding it. They appear to have lost the argument.

No 10 confirms that freedom of movement will end in 2019. Therefore, the single market ends. There will be no transition. The cliff edge draws closer. For the Brexit martyrs, paradise beckons.
No longer Project Fear but Project Near. After that it will be Project Here.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...LE-attacks-Brexit-fanatics.html#ixzz4ozc3nGG0
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Full article at link above.
 
@Chris_the_Brit

What will you do now that your beloved Daily Mail is publishing such terrible anti-Brexit propaganda?


:whistle:
 
Still waiting to hear any kind of coherent plan...of any sorts from any of the players. Wish they'd hurry the f up with that...need to make a career decision that will be impacted by this.

At this pace their going to end up using the "Ask the audience" joker. AKA second referendum
 
HavocXphere said:
Still waiting to hear any kind of coherent plan...of any sorts from any of the players. Wish they'd hurry the f up with that...need to make a career decision that will be impacted by this.
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+1, life is in limbo at the moment.
 
HavocXphere said:
Still waiting to hear any kind of coherent plan...of any sorts from any of the players. Wish they'd hurry the f up with that...need to make a career decision that will be impacted by this.

At this pace their going to end up using the "Ask the audience" joker. AKA second referendum
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If the Daily Mail is running pieces like the above it's safe to say they've seen a change in sentiment to enough of a degree to start moving their opinion pieces away from only pro-Brexit stuff.
 
Dave said:
If the Daily Mail is running pieces like the above it's safe to say they've seen a change in sentiment to enough of a degree to start moving their opinion pieces away from only pro-Brexit stuff.
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Not too concerned with sentiment to be honest. That'll come round one way or the other.

It's the political realities and the lack of a clear path forward that alarm me.

Reverse decision >>> A political non-starter
Soft Brexit >>> Clusterfk of compromises everywhere, uncertainty and inefficiencies. More likely a Worst of Both World rather than have your cake and eat it
Hard Brexit >>> They've got about a year to figure out what to do about ~23 000 laws and negotiate something new with the main UK trade partner...the one they just antagonised.

I kinda get why there is no coherent plan in place: Because there are no good options & any politician presenting a bad one commits political suicide. Still...annoying as hell.

Think a hard brexit is feasible...but not on this time scale. Not even close.
 
HavocXphere said:
Not too concerned with sentiment to be honest. That'll come round one way or the other.
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If public opinion changes sufficiently I can just see those Tory snakes doing a prompt turnabout on a second referendum to ensue the Brexit deal is "the will of the people".

You can be pretty sure that the last election shook them quite severely and they're just thanking whatever deity they believe in that they have an anti-EU leader of the opposition or they'd be royally screwed already.
 
OrbitalDawn said:
Would he care much about a Lib Dem opinion piece either way?

Interesting move from DM, though. Likely just enjoying stirring the pot.
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Well, the Daily Mail is one of his bibles, he's probably sobbing in the corner at what the Mail has done, he's been posting on the forum tonight but for some reason has studiously avoided this thread (for probably the first time ever) :p
 
HavocXphere said:
Still waiting to hear any kind of coherent plan...of any sorts from any of the players. Wish they'd hurry the f up with that...need to make a career decision that will be impacted by this.

At this pace their going to end up using the "Ask the audience" joker. AKA second referendum
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There won't be a second referendum. There will be a brexit. The question is how hard. I reckon 60% chance of a "Norway" type arrangement, but not exactly the same. The Irish border issue is still going to get messy. Free movement will end, but movement itself won't end. A deal will be struck to allow EU workers to work in the U.K. with some conditions, skills etc. The Tories will spin it like even though it's a generous deal for EU workers, it's not free movement, but similar to what is in place for skilled migrants from other countries while "recognising the UK's special shared history with the EU" or some bs like that :)
 
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zippy said:
There won't be a second referendum. There will be a brexit. The question is how hard. I reckon 60% chance of a "Norway" type arrangement, but not exactly the same. The Irish border issue is still going to get messy. Free movement will end, but movement itself won't end. A deal will be struck to allow EU workers to work in the U.K. with some conditions, skills etc. The Tories will spin it like even though it's a generous deal for EU workers, it's not free movement, but similar to what is in place for skilled migrants from other countries while "recognising the UK's special shared history with the EU" or some bs like that :)
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You mean like it is already? But now the government will actually enforce the current conditions?
 
zippy said:
I reckon 60% chance of a "Norway" type arrangement, but not exactly the same.
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Remind me...how many years did the negotiations for that take? UK has 600 days (to the minute) left to cleanly cut EU ties, and replace it with something usable....all while there is a whole lot of tension in the air while negotiating.

And I do actually think there will be a 2nd ref...to legitimise the deal with the EU. There will be riots if the politicians accept anything without a ref I think regardless of the deal's contents. Questions of this magnitude politicians can't really take on their own (and frankly won't risk to either). Asking people to vote for a brexit deal is going to be tricky too when chances are good by then sentiment will have turned towards "we don't want brexit". Recent polls seem to be pointing that way now already...another 600 days of stumbling around aimlessly isn't going to help.

zippy said:
The Irish border issue is still going to get messy.
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Show me something about Brexit that isn't going to get messy? From what I can tell it's looking like slow motion car crash across the entire board & the only ones happy about it are the "we got our sovereignty back" types - king of the ashes style.

Normally I'd be laughing at this entirely predictably corner they've painted themselves into with so much determination...unfortunately I need them to get their sht together. I don't even particularly care which option they pick...personally I can make them all work...except the one where they act like a bunch of 5 year olds fighting over a TV remote...and by the time they're done fighting they missed all the TV shows they wanted to watch. That scenario is a problem for me (and well UK too I suppose).

Anyway...rant over.
 
HavocXphere said:
Remind me...how many years did the negotiations for that take? UK has 600 days (to the minute) left to cleanly cut EU ties, and replace it with something usable....all while there is a whole lot of tension in the air while negotiating.

And I do actually think there will be a 2nd ref...to legitimise the deal with the EU. There will be riots if the politicians accept anything without a ref I think regardless of the deal's contents. Questions of this magnitude politicians can't really take on their own (and frankly won't risk to either). Asking people to vote for a brexit deal is going to be tricky too when chances are good by then sentiment will have turned towards "we don't want brexit". Recent polls seem to be pointing that way now already...another 600 days of stumbling around aimlessly isn't going to help.


Show me something about Brexit that isn't going to get messy? From what I can tell it's looking like slow motion car crash across the entire board & the only ones happy about it are the "we got our sovereignty back" types - king of the ashes style.

Normally I'd be laughing at this entirely predictably corner they've painted themselves into with so much determination...unfortunately I need them to get their sht together. I don't even particularly care which option they pick...personally I can make them all work...except the one where they act like a bunch of 5 year olds fighting over a TV remote...and by the time they're done fighting they missed all the TV shows they wanted to watch. That scenario is a problem for me (and well UK too I suppose).

Anyway...rant over.
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The reason I don't think there will be a 2nd referendum is because there is a general election very close to the Brexit date. The message from this last election is clear: no hard brexit.

Yes it will be messy, nobody disputes that. But it is both parties interests to get it done. For example, I saw that the Danish fishing industry is very dependant on access to U.K. waters. A deal will get done. Maybe not in 600 days, but it will get done, because for both parties they have constituents who will vote them out of office if it's not done. Remember, European majorities are very slim and in some cases there are fragile coalitions. They do not want to "rock the boat" to much, or seen to be the cause of job losses.

There is already talk of a "transition period", which I think recognises the fact that a deal is impossible in the current timeframe.

What doesn't help is the posturing by both parties. But that is more for the media than anything else. They all want to give the impression that they are the ones calling the shots. But, it's the European govts, who will force the EU negotiators on. If they are not already doing so behind the scenes.

On the UK side, local industry will force the hand of the UK govt. Foreign manufacturing companies have already told the govt to get their sh##t together(Nissan, US Banks etc.) Retailers are already feeling the pain because of plummeting consumer spending which due to the negativity coming out of both the UK and the EU camps. I'm not sure how much of the UK media coverage you get, but there has been a distinct softening from the UK side. MP' are been told to by the only people they take seriously(no it's not No 10), British Industry, to wake the f##k up and get this business over with.
 
Dave said:
:confused:

Next general election is June 2022.
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there wont be a deal in 2019. You cant have as referendum about the deal until its contents are at least known. I doubt that will be before 2021

There will be a transition period for at least 2 years.

EDIT: Saw an interview with an investment banker based in London. He said something to effect that nobody in the City believes there will be a deal in time for the Brexit date in 2019 and anyone who thinks there will be is either naïve, stupid or both :)
 
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zippy said:
there wont be a deal in 2019. You cant have as referendum about the deal until its contents are at least known. I doubt that will be before 2021

There will be a transition period for at least 2 years.
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Something has to happen in 2019 or it's off the cliff, any transition deal is still a deal and there will have to be agreement as to what happens at the end of the transition period.

You see, those idiots trumpeting what a good idea Brexit is haven't got an idea of what they're doing, some people are starting to think May has been quite clever putting them into the negotiating team...
 
UK made weekly net payment of around £156m to EU in 2016/17

Figures suggest the UK's weekly payment was far below the controversial £350m figure touted during Brexit campaigning.

The UK made a net payment of roughly £156m a week to the European Union in 2016/17, the lowest level for five years.

Treasury figures suggest the total amount for the 12 months to March 2017 was £8.1bn.

It is the first time a figure has been given for the period that included the EU referendum in June 2016.

The exact amount the UK pays was one of the key issues of the referendum campaign.

Vote Leave, the official Brexit campaign, was criticised for printing a slogan on the side of its battle bus that said: "We send the EU £350m a week."

Backers of the Remain campaign said this was misleading because it did not take into account the money the UK gets from the EU in its rebate, as well as payments made to the public sector.

The estimate of £8.1bn for 2016/17 is the lowest since 2011/12 and down more than a quarter on the figure for 2015/16 when adjusted for inflation.

Before the application of the rebate, the UK's gross contribution to the EU budget in 2016/17 was £16.9bn, or around £325m a week.

But, as was pointed out by the UK Statistics Authority during the referendum campaign, the Treasury pays the UK's contributions to Brussels after taking away the value of the rebate.

The rebate in 2016/17 was £4.8bn, which when taken from the gross contribution gives a figure of £12.2bn.

Once the EU's payments to the UK public sector are subtracted, this gives the final figure of £8.1bn, or around £156m a week.
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