The Brexit Thread

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Dave said:
The other problem is if the UK was to go no deal and move to WTO trading, WTO rules do not allow discrimination in trading, if the UK allows border free access without restriction to goods from Eire/the EU, it must also give free (zero tariff) access to goods from every other country in the world who it trades with (its known as the “most favoured nation” rule), which isn’t something the UK wants (or will allow).
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They can however use standards as a trade barrier - allowing EU goods in whilst keeping goods from other countries out if it does not comply with the standard set. (eg US beef can be banned because of the use of antibiotics)
 
Cray said:
It's not an explicit breach but the problem is how the populace of NI will view a hard border and how it will affect the peace, you cannot just wish away the history of the conflict by saying "feels"



NI voted by 55% to remain in the EU - how do you figure that to mean that they voted for a hard border?
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The Irish government views it as a breach of the spirit of the GF agreement - off course a court will have to be the final arbiter.
 
Verde said:
They can however use standards as a trade barrier - allowing EU goods in whilst keeping goods from other countries out if it does not comply with the standard set. (eg US beef can be banned because of the use of antibiotics)
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Yes, it can outright ban an item, but it cannot allow free trade with any nation and not then allow free trade with any other WTO member. The USA beef and chicken is often brought up as something that might be forced on the UK if it wants a new trade deal with the US after leaving the EU agreements.

A better example would be dairy products, tariff free for eu states, but up to 30% duty for some other countries outside the EU, if dairy products can freely cross the Eire/NI border then the same must happen for all other countries that export dairy products to the UK.

Here’s another explanation:
Only a slightly less gung-ho approach would be for the UK could decide to apply no restrictions at all on the movement of goods into Northern Ireland from Ireland, in order to avoid the need for controls in the first instance. Most-favoured nation rules would mean that it would have to have the same policy for goods entering its territory from all other countries. The competitiveness of British producers and manufacturers would be placed under severe pressure in such an eventuality. More to the point, to have no restrictions on goods entering the UK would somewhat undermine the motivation of other states to negotiate ambitious trade agreements with it.

Secondly, such checks and controls typically require the use of physical infrastructure. At the very least, designated entry points are required for goods entering a different customs territory. In terms of a land border, this tends to take the form of ‘approved’ roads. This means that customs procedures can be facilitated as effectively as possible, so paperwork (even electronic versions) can be checked, exit and entry can be recorded, and inspections can be performed on those rare occasions where they are deemed necessary.
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Page 23
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/What-would-trading-on-WTO-terms-mean-Long-Guide.pdf
 
Dave said:
The other problem is if the UK was to go no deal and move to WTO trading
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A temporary situation, only until another agreement is put in place

Dave said:
WTO rules do not allow discrimination in trading
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pffff, a toothless rule that is never strictly applied, our very own MIDP / APDP has been flagged by the WTO a couple of times, there's never been any backlash
 
Oh dear, some exploding heads in the Brexiteer camp this evening.

Theresa May risks fresh Brexit clash with Tories after saying she is 'not proposing' to replace Irish backstop
Hardline anti-EU Tories issue immediate threat to prime minister - 'Even if she doesn't mean what she said, we still do'
Rob Merrick2 minutes ago

Theresa May has risked another bitter clash with anti-EU Tories by saying she is “not proposing” to replace the Irish backstop in her Brexit deal.

The prime minister appeared to go back on last week’s Commons vote – to replace the backstop “with alternative arrangements” – by saying she was only seeking “changes”.

Brexiteer Tories have already warned such a compromise would be unacceptable – ruling out either a unilateral withdrawal clause or an end date to the backstop.

The hardline European Research Group reacted immediately to the speech, in Belfast, saying: “Even if she doesn't mean what she said, we still do.”
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...mons-vote-parliament-withdrawal-a8764311.html
 
Pitbull said:
Why?

One step closer to no deal... Remoaners creating own goals :D
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I don’t think there’s much of a chance they’ll allow a no deal exit to happen, watch the extension of article 50 happen if nothing changes by late Feb/early March.
 
Pitbull said:
Why?

One step closer to no deal... Remoaners creating own goals :D
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Indeed, as if any actual brexit supporter wants May's shitty deal.

May is undoubtedly trying to reinforce "my deal or the end of the world" thinking in order to cancel / postpone brexit indefinitely though.
 
Dave said:
If it gets to an art50 extension that probably becomes a more likely outcome in the end.
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True enough, it would save us all a hell of a lot of time if they just own up to the ultimate goal though.

Parliament, and most definitely May herself, simply do not want brexit. They were never going to make it happen in any meaningful way, but they sure put on a show pretending they're working towards it.

Time to grow a pair and call it off, dare the lynch mob into action or submission.
 
Pitbull said:
NI is already semi independent they should just be completely Independent and decide what they wan to
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You really probably should read up on the Good Friday Agreement, they’ve already been asked and in terms of the GFA have the right to join Eire (the republic) at any time the majority decide to. The majority is currently unionist, not republican.
 
@Pitbull

The wording from the GFA
1. (1) It is hereby declared that Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom and shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll held for the purposes of this section in accordance with Schedule 1.

(2) But if the wish expressed by a majority in such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland, the Secretary of State shall lay before Parliament such proposals to give effect to that wish as may be agreed between Her Majestyüs Government in the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland.
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http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_friday/full_text.html
 
Dave said:
You really probably should read up on the Good Friday Agreement, they’ve already been asked and in terms of the GFA have the right to join Eire (the republic) at any time the majority decide to. The majority is currently unionist, not republican.
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I'm well aware of that. If you took the time to read, you would have noticed I have been talking about the Belfast agreement all morning...
Only 44% on the last vote was in favor. So, if they don't unify with Ireland, they can be independent. UK closes shop and bam. All done!
 
Pitbull said:
I'm well aware of that. If you took the time to read, you would have noticed I have been talking about the Belfast agreement all morning...
Only 44% on the last vote was in favor.
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You’ve been talking about it but the general consensus from everyone trying to discuss it with you was that you didn’t really know much about it.

The last vote in NI was 71% in favour of the GFA and remaining in the UK...

78BB9DD7-C9DB-4D71-8925-B7D66491C145.jpeg

Pitbull said:
So, if they don't unify with Ireland, they can be independent. UK closes shop and bam. All done!
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Where do you get this idea from? It’s never even been discussed as an option and none of the sides want it.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
Indeed, as if any actual brexit supporter wants May's shitty deal.

May is undoubtedly trying to reinforce "my deal or the end of the world" thinking in order to cancel / postpone brexit indefinitely though.
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Ah but as one of my favourite magazines points out, the public mood outside of the Westminster bubble is more for No Deal than many would one believe. Also all the Labour MPs who voted against Cooper's amendment last week - unlikely to change. They are getting bombarded by their constituents not to sell out. Almost exclusively represent areas with huge leave majorities.

Yet there is reason to believe that the opposition to Cooper’s plan remains strong – and in part that’s because of the public mood. Despite all the no deal warnings, the idea of the UK leaving the EU without a deal has been growing in popularity among Leave voters. New polling suggests it is now the preferred outcome with a majority of those who voted to Leave. Speaking on the Today programme this morning, Lisa Nandy – the Labour MP for Wigan – said that she had been ‘overwhelmed’ in recent weeks with emails from constituents who want to leave without a deal. It’s something Ross Clark has observed too. He has noted on Coffee House that there has been a shift in mood in the Question Time audiences recently – showing impatience with those who show sympathy with the idea of delaying Brexit.
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Pitbull said:
So, if they don't unify with Ireland, they can be independent. UK closes shop and bam. All done!
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No one in NI wants independence. Not an option.
In the 2017 election Unionist parties got 49% of the vote (the 1st time their share fell under 50%) and Republican parties got 42%.
 
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