The Brexit Thread

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Pitbull said:
No I guess it can only be sourced from an EU partner /facepalm
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It probably can be sourced elsewhere obviously, but now there would be spool up in terms of design, acceptance testing etc etc etc... and that might now be a totally unacceptable lead time addition to a project.
 
ToxicBunny said:
It probably can be sourced elsewhere obviously, but now there would be spool up in terms of design, acceptance testing etc etc etc... and that might now be a totally unacceptable lead time addition to a project.
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Yes, there will always be excuses if you look hard enough...
 
Pitbull said:
Weirdest part of it. most companies have resolved that there will be Brexit and already made plans to continue doing business the last 2 years. The Remoaners on the other hand was hoping it will sink and did fark-all. Now they are crying.
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Lol. So funny. The plan many companies put in place, was to relocate their HQ to the EU.

I wonder what that does to the UK economy?

In general business has no clear idea on what to expect. The current situation is a bish bosh of stockpiling as much as possible.

In 2018 it snowed for 2 days. People panicked as for 1 day . All regular stores were empty for a week afterwards. The UK has no resilience to a shock in its supply system.

Government has no clue, hence they made the funds available to stockpile medicines etc.

This uncertainty is what us affecting the pound.
 
ToxicBunny said:
Ok yeah... 100's... its all roses and the UK will blossom after Brexit...
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UK will eventually find it's stride and grow from strength to strength. You know it as well as the next person and that there will be a growing phase of pain. But it's better to just be a doomsday prophet I guess. Makes it so much more fun right?
 
Pitbull said:
UK will eventually find it's stride and grow from strength to strength. You know it as well as the next person and that there will be a growing phase of pain. But it's better to just be a doomsday prophet I guess. Makes it so much more fun right?
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You are assuming that it will grow from strength to strength... there isn't any evidence that that will happen, its just as likely that the economy will slide backwards and never fully recover, and also as likely that they will come out of this mess in an ok state but never really grow to the levels that they would have as part of the EU
 
Pitbull said:
You can import them from SA, you are aware of that right?
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Sure we could. UK has a trade agreement with SA as part of the EU trade agreement, ley me place an order now.

Oh fxxk on 31 October the UK will no longer have a trade agreement with SA and will have to abide by WTO rules.

What will the tarrifs be? What will that do to the supply line?
 
ToxicBunny said:
It probably can be sourced elsewhere obviously, but now there would be spool up in terms of design, acceptance testing etc etc etc... and that might now be a totally unacceptable lead time addition to a project.
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Exactly. I am on a nuclear power station.

I need CE certificates of conformity, shop drawings, F3.1 certificates. Mill certificates. Which an SA company or anyone could provide, but how quick and would they do it all before 31 October.

We actually buy steel pipes from South Africa. Bought 31km worth in a bulk buy to mitigate against Brexit.
 
buka001 said:
Sure we could. UK has a trade agreement with SA as part of the EU trade agreement, ley me place an order now.

Oh fxxk on 31 October the UK will no longer have a trade agreement with SA and will have to abide by WTO rules.

What will the tarrifs be? What will that do to the supply line?
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They don't need a trade agreement to buy some random thing.
 
buka001 said:
Exactly. I am on a nuclear power station.

I need CE certificates of conformity, shop drawings, F3.1 certificates. Mill certificates. Which an SA company or anyone could provide, but how quick and would they do it all before 31 October.

We actually buy steel pipes from South Africa. Bought 31km worth in a bulk buy to mitigate against Brexit.
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These are just details of course, they're meaningless for those who want to believe everything will turn out ok after Brexit (even if there is just a bit of pain to start with)
 
ToxicBunny said:
You are assuming that it will grow from strength to strength... there isn't any evidence that that will happen, its just as likely that the economy will slide backwards and never fully recover, and also as likely that they will come out of this mess in an ok state but never really grow to the levels that they would have as part of the EU
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Long term, I see two scenarios:

A) The UK votes to rejoin the EU after a decade of slow or no growth
B) The EU collapses after more countries leave, but another pan European body is formed in its place
 
Pitbull said:
You don't know how the transport industry works obviously...

Longer delays doesn't mean you need to freight less items /facepalm
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Supply and demand. Supply will not be able to match demand due to restricted flows through the border.

Demand drops. Costs also increase.

Suppliers have to make it more efficient.
 
Ancalagon said:
Long term, I see two scenarios:

A) The UK votes to rejoin the EU after a decade of slow or no growth
B) The EU collapses after more countries leave, but another pan European body is formed in its place
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I would tend to agree with you ultimately...

I see A being the more likely of the two scenarios, as the remaining EU countries will watch the chaos in the UK and any thought of leaving the EU will vanish from their political landscapes.

But of course, with option A, the UK will be worse off than if they just stayed as part of the EU in the first place... they will never get the same sweetheart deal they currently have.
 
rietrot said:
They don't need a trade agreement to buy some random thing.
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Yes we do? What customs value is subscribed to the importation of those bolts?

Under which agreement are those rules applied?

WTO.

What does that do to my delivery lead time?
 
buka001 said:
Sure we could. UK has a trade agreement with SA as part of the EU trade agreement, ley me place an order now.

Oh fxxk on 31 October the UK will no longer have a trade agreement with SA and will have to abide by WTO rules.

What will the tarrifs be? What will that do to the supply line?
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You can import what you want from where you want... Only difference is the customs duties and checks.

Wait you actually knew this... right?
 
buka001 said:
Supply and demand.
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I think you understood the part you just said incorrectly :eek:

Supply and demand affects price.

So if the demand exceeds the supply, price increases. If the Supply exceeds the demand the price falls. I think I know why you're in construction now...

Slower delivery times will create a scenario where demand exceeds supply. Thus companies are willing to pay more to get what they need. (Doesn't affect transport in the least) Freight companies will demand higher transport costs and clients will pay as they need their supplies. This in the end affects the end consumer, however, the rest of the business chain will be run as normal.

Raw material increase, transport increases, final product increases and the consumer bears the brunt of it.
 
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buka001 said:
Yes we do? What customs value is subscribed to the importation of those bolts?

Under which agreement are those rules applied?

WTO.

What does that do to my delivery lead time?
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Whatever you agree with the supplier.

I'm amazed that you need the government to to hold your hand throughout this. Add a day or two for the border check.
 
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rietrot said:
Whatever you agree with the supplier.
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I'm seriously starting to wonder if these remainers actually know anything about global trade and trade agreements. UK can import anything from anywhere but it will be custom taxed, something EU purchasers and suppliers are exempt from.

Import Bolt from Germany at 1 Euro with no custom charges vs purchasing bolt from SA at 0.85 Euro + (25%) custom duty and probably VAT (20%) = 1.28 Euros

Same bolt, just slightly more expensive due to custom charges and VAT.

So you still receive your Bolt, it's just 28% more expensive even if you get it for cheaper.
 
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