The Elections Thread - 7 May 2014

[LazyLion]

ZILLE PROMISES JOBS IN NWEST RALLY

The DA has a track record of managing the economy where it governs to create more jobs, party leader Helen Zille said at an election rally in the North West on Tuesday.

"It is no coincidence that the one province where the Democratic Alliance governs [Western Cape] has the lowest unemployment in South Africa," Zille said in a speech prepared for delivery in Klerksdorp.

"...Where South Africans have voted the DA into office, we are managing the economy well so that it grows fast enough to create many more real, permanent jobs."

She said national government had failed to deliver on its promises for job creation since 2009 and many more South Africans were now unemployed.

"As I cross the country, more and more South Africans are telling me that a better life for all might be promised by the African National Congress, but it is being delivered by the DA," Zille said.

Good governance without corruption was a formula for job creation, and this was working in DA-led areas.

"You will not find a Nkandla where the DA governs," Zille said in reference to controversial R246 million security upgrades to President Jacob Zuma's private Nkandla homestead in KwaZulu-Natal.

The DA's policies helped entrepreneurs to start small businesses, improved education and helped graduates to get internships.

"Other parties talk of the better life; we are delivering the job-creating economic growth that actually creates the better life."

Zille said her party was growing bigger and stronger, and she urged potential voters to participate in next week's general elections and refrain from spoiling their ballots.


Source : Sapa /mjs/jk/jje
Date : 29 Apr 2014 14:38

 

[Lycanthrope]

Serves you right for living in a foreign land...

Live in our timezone, or suffer for it

haha... Right now, we're in the same timezone (or at least, share the same time). I only went to bed at around 08:00 this morning. They phoned an hour later. The "hurr durr" effect was strong with me. Took me a moment to realise it was my phone ringing and not my alarm.

Still, the question remains: how did they get my number?

My eyes are fixed firmly on the IEC. They wanted a cell number when I registered to vote abroad--figured it was important in case they had any questions or something. It's the only thing election-related I've ever given any contact details to, ever.

 

[Vox Populi Vox Dei]

Why is Gauteng so important?

There's a lot more to this election in Gauteng than the Premier's race.

After we’ve all gone and voted, the Independent Electoral Commission shunts the numbers through a formula to determine who gets how many seats in the next National Assembly, and all the provincial legislatures. It isn't, however, just calculated from a national pie - half of the seats (that's 200 of them) are dependent on the results in each province. And since Gauteng is so big (in number, not territory), it determines a fat portion of who occupies them. In 2009 it determined which bum went in 47 of those 200 seats.

As an example, the Freedom Front Plus won four seats in the last assembly, three of which came from the national count and one from the provincial number crunching. Although its 1.38% in Gauteng was only its third best result (it absolutely caned in the Free State with 1.61%), it is this province from which the provincial seat was allocated.

How about another? In the 2009 election the Democratic Alliance won 48.7% of the vote in the Western Cape, snagging 12 seats in the regional calculation. From Gauteng it won 10 of them with only 21.27% of the vote. You can win a plurality in a province that is not Gauteng, and win a smudge over one fifth of the votes in Gauteng, and wind up with similar results.

Put simply: the better you do in Gauteng, the better you will do.

It's no secret the DA has made Gauteng the centre of its election campaign. Reportedly R100m of its R173m election budget is being spent in that one province, and anyone who has merely stood near a piece of media in the last four months or so has caught a whiff of Mmusi Maimane's campaign for the Premier's office.

This is how Gauteng looked after the 2009 elections, broken down by municipality.

That's ANC wins in every district. The big DA success outside the Western Cape is Midvaal (the lightest shaded municipality in the southernmost tip of the province), in which the DA holds control at the local level (and actually won a plurality of votes on the 2009 provincial ballot). Don’t get too excited by it, however, because in 2009 only 35 169 votes were cast in Midvaal, out of 4 199 863 in the province in total. That’s a measly 0.84%.

The secret to Gauteng, and therefore nearly a quarter of the regionally allocated seats in parliament, lies in three distinct municipalities: The City of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane Metro, where 83% of the province’s votes were cast. That is where all parties contesting Gauteng need to do their work, and when comparing the 2009 election with 2004, we can see the DA making some impressions in heavy ANC territory. Up to now, however, it has had a small effect on the overall Gauteng vote: a drop of nearly six points in the City of Johannesburg, two points in Ekurhuleni and a small gain in Tshwane Metro.







As you can see below, in 2009 the ANC cleaned up in the province even though its share of the vote dropped by four points. Outside the Tshwane Metro, the marginal decrease was pretty fairly spread out. Only four regions – the West Rand, Mogale City, Randfontein and Nokeng Tsa Taemane moved eight or more points (and it is worth noting that the latter was one of the absolutely worst-run municipalities in South Africa, and eventually disestablished and incorporated into Tshwane before the 2011 local government elections).

The spreading out of the drop meant that there was no specific geographical or local issue driving voters. In fact it was more than likely the Congress of the People that somewhat disturbed the ANC’s hefty majority.



In 2011, however, during local government elections, things started moving. The DA hauled in 33% of the local vote, swallowing up virtually the entire opposition vote, reducing Cope to just over 1% and the ANC down another four points. While the ANC retained a majority of provincial support, dropping eight points over the course of two elections is never going to be welcome.

Another four points and all of a sudden you have the DA at nearly 40% and the ANC beginning to smell the 50% mark. And in a year where the public is pissed with the president, the economy continues spluttering and service delivery is again a tumultuous issue, another four-point swing isn’t off the cards. Obviously there are many different variables moving all over the place between a general and municipal election, but the trends are moving in one direction.

Degree of success for DA

Although polls released this year have the ANC looking in a lot more danger than I would expect the party is, the DA can come away from this election with a fair degree of success, even if it fails to secure a majority in Gauteng. If another four-point swing does happen – and public and leaked internal polling shows it to likely be more than that – the 2012 allocation (which is up one from 2009 to 48 seats), would be around 26-27 parliamentary seats for the ANC, down from 31 in 2009, and 18-19 for the DA, up from 10. This is obviously hypothetical, as I haven’t taken into account Cope (which I expect to do terribly) or the Economic Freedom Fighters.

City Press reported in March that DA internal polls had the party at 36% and the ANC’s below 45%, while EFF would score 7%. Of the 200 provincially determined seats in the National Assembly, that would give the ANC 21 or 22 (down from 31), the DA closer to 17-18 and EFF three or four.

So even if the ANC retains control of the province, and Mmusi Maimane represents in Cape Town rather than Johannesburg (he’s on the national MP’s list too), the DA can make a significant difference to its chunk of parliamentary representation by going well in Gauteng. There’s a lot more in the province than the premier’s chair.

http://www.news24.com/Elections/OpinionAndAnalysis/Why-is-Gauteng-so-important-20140429

 

[Lycanthrope]

My eyes are fixed firmly on the IEC. They wanted a cell number when I registered to vote abroad--figured it was important in case they had any questions or something. It's the only thing election-related I've ever given any contact details to, ever.

Back to this.

I just got phoned by them... again.

Charming lady named Cindy, from Cape Town.

Apparently the DA got my number from "the consumer database."

Anyone care to explain how my Swedish cellphone number ends up on the South African "consumer database?" How they then also know my full name, identity number and which embassy I registered to vote at?

The only folks with that information is the IEC. Granted, they could find out which embassy I registered to vote at with just my ID number. The point remains.

Genuinely annoyed by this unsolicited "reminder" to vote like some naughty child. Twice, nogal.

 

[Bar0n]

Genuinely annoyed by this unsolicited "reminder" to vote like some naughty child. Twice, nogal.

WTF IS WRONG WITH YOU IF YOU DONT VOTE DA THE COUNTRY WILL BURN OMG OMG OMG.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Back to this.

I just got phoned by them... again.

Charming lady named Cindy, from Cape Town.

Apparently the DA got my number from "the consumer database."

Anyone care to explain how my Swedish cellphone number ends up on the South African "consumer database?" How they then also know my full name, identity number and which embassy I registered to vote at?

The only folks with that information is the IEC. Granted, they could find out which embassy I registered to vote at with just my ID number. The point remains.

Genuinely annoyed by this unsolicited "reminder" to vote like some naughty child. Twice, nogal.

Did you tell them to gtfo?

 

[Lycanthrope]

WTF IS WRONG WITH YOU IF YOU DONT VOTE DA THE COUNTRY WILL BURN OMG OMG OMG.

Did you tell them to gtfo?

Not in so many words. Was more curious to find out how they got my number. Lady was friendly and I don't believe it's her fault--her job is simply to sit behind a screen and phone people all day.

"Consumer database" pfff... What a load of horse****.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Not in so many words. Was more curious to find out how they got my number. Lady was friendly and I don't believe it's her fault--her job is simply to sit behind a screen and phone people all day.

"Consumer database" pfff... What a load of horse****.

Yeah, does sound like a BS excuse.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

 

[Nicci]

He looks like a teenage mutant ninja turtle.

 

[Lycanthrope]

He looks like a teenage mutant ninja turtle.

I always thought he looked more like an infected boil, personally. I guess that's where the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle green comes in.

 

[Wyzak]

Apparently the DA got my number from "the consumer database."

Consumer database is slang for we got your number through illegal means and we'll just give you this excuse. I hope you told them to go and shove it, it's none of their business who you vote for, and if they phoned me again I'd tell them that I'm less likely to vote for somebody who cold calls me after getting my number through dodgy means.

 

[Vox Populi Vox Dei]

http://ewn.co.za/Media/2014/04/24/Youth-election-debate

Debate I attended last week. EFF was hilarious!

 

[Lycanthrope]

Consumer database is slang for we got your number through illegal means and we'll just give you this excuse. I hope you told them to go and shove it, it's none of their business who you vote for, and if they phoned me again I'd tell them that I'm less likely to vote for somebody who cold calls me after getting my number through dodgy means.

I agree with you. In their defence, they didn't ask me to vote for the DA, just asked me to remember to vote tomorrow because something about it being a.... what was the word they used... I forget, but essentially implying that South Africa is closer than ever to booting out the governing party.

But yeah, I don't care about them calling, just grates me that they got my number from somewhere without my permission.

And there really is only one explanation, and that's precisely the one you've given: they acquired it through illegitimate means. Because there isn't a single institution in ZA apart from the IEC that has my Swedish cell number.

 

[Wyzak]

I agree with you. In their defence, they didn't ask me to vote for the DA, just asked me to remember to vote tomorrow because something about it being a.... what was the word they used... I forget, but essentially implying that South Africa is closer than ever to booting out the governing party.

But yeah, I don't care about them calling, just grates me that they got my number from somewhere without my permission.

And there really is only one explanation, and that's precisely the one you've given: they acquired it through illegitimate means. Because there isn't a single institution in ZA apart from the IEC that has my Swedish cell number.

Kudos to you for voting tomorrow.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Kudos to you for voting tomorrow.

Will vote until the day I can't any more. I'm tenaciously stubborn like that

But thanks for the kudos.

 

[Wasabee!]

Pity that MyBB poll shows DA winning but in real life the "masses" will vote ANC. Let's see if they learnt their lesson yet.

 

[Wall]

Just got this via email.

Validity?

Two Important issues . .. . . ..
Good advice - not too much to remember:-

1. Check for stamp at back of voting form

2. Use your own pen

Dear all

I am working at a local polling station (overseeing vote counting). Please tell all your friends to DOUBLE CHECK their voting paper is STAMPED at the back otherwise their vote does not count. I counted at the last election and ALL votes with no stamp of the local polling station were not counted. That is the very first item on the list that we check and the votes without stamps at the back are discounted immediately.

Use your own pen and not the one that they provide, ink disappears!

 

[Wyzak]

It has to be stamped on the back yes, saw that on a form I received in the paper as well.

 

[ToxicBunny]

Just got this via email.

Validity?

Definitely has to be stamped on the back...

And as far as I know, it has to be stamped in FRONT of you, they can't pre-stamp forms. Maybe just double check this, but if they give you a pre-stamped form, you should be informing the political parties that are present and they will deal with it.