The Tornadoes, Cyclones, Hurricanes & Typhoons Thread.

No name yet, but an intense tropical cyclone is predicted to develop in the Mozambique Channel over the next few days, with likely landfall somewhere near Beira in central Mozambique around Thurs 14th:

trajectoire[18S_201090309_1600].png
 
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The third time this season for cyclones to form in the channel! extremely unusual event!
 
New one now got a name. "IDAI". This season is now standing at 6 intense cyclones in the basin. Last seen in 2006/7.
 
TC Idai is a large and powerful Cat 3 tropical cyclone, and is likely to make landfall north of Beira in Mozambique later tomorrow (Thurs 14th).

Edit: Quite a detailed forecast by eNCA: https://www.enca.com/news/red-alert-mozambique-cyclone-idai-gathers-energy

There is likely to be significant wind damage, coastal surge, and inland flooding: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/index.html

IDAI IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
AT LANDFALL. THE INHABITANTS OF THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
FOLLOW OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED
BY THE MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE FINAL TRACK TO TALK ABOUT A PRECISE STORM SURGE
VALUE AT BEIRA. HAVING SAID THAT, AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
EXCEEDING 3 TO 4 METERS IS VERY LIKELY SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT AND
POTENTIALLY MORE IN THE PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH IF THE MAXIMUM OF STORM
SURGE HIT THAT PLACE. IF THE CURRENT TRACK IS CONFIRMED, THIS COULD BE A
WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR BEIRA.
Click to expand...

EUMetsat image at 1800Z on Wed 14th:
MET9_airmass-southernAfrica_20190313_1800[crop_25X2].jpg
 
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I'll never forget the mass hysteria caused in Durban when there were a couple waterspouts out at sea in the 2000s. People were saying they saw UFOs. Remember they interviewed an Indian uncle who looked and sounded like a saw a ghost.
 
I have been monitoring this storm while it was just a depression.
There is second one Lorna in mid ocean. This one is likely to dissipate quite quickly.
Kenneth is moving westwards towards the continent. No one is making any real predictions as yet about its intensity.
 
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Intense Tropical Cyclone Kenneth:

JTWC_sh2419.gif

Plenty of moisture will move over the continent south of the equator, which means we could see a spike in rainfall over us in a few weeks time. In the meantime, intense rain will fall over Northern Mozambique and Southern Tanzania for at least 10 hours from midday today. The cyclone will lose intensity quite quickly and turn southwards before move back over the channel. Then, we will have to see what happens. If it then turns southwards and intensifies some more, Moz is in for more flooding in an area already hard hit. Bad news overall.

At least, SAWS now seems to be taking much more interest in monitoring and reporting on tropical cyclones in the Indian basin. A long overdue move.
 
Another very late in the season rather ominous low pressure cell is forming just north of Madagascar, south of the Seychelles.
Also surprisingly, the unmonitored remnants of Kenneth is back over water and showing weak signs of consolidating again.
Will be watching these two events rather closely.
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49554537
Hurricane Dorian appears to have caused "unprecedented" devastation in the Bahamas, the country's leader says.

The storm, the second-strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, remains "extremely dangerous", said Prime Minister Hubert Minnis.

Some 13,000 houses are feared damaged or destroyed, according to the International Red Cross.

Pictures showed surging floodwaters, upturned cars and snapped trees.

Dorian is the most powerful storm to hit the Bahamas since records began and will later move "dangerously close" to the US east coast, according to forecasters.

It hit the Bahamas as a category five hurricane but has now weakened to a category four with maximum sustained winds near 155ph (250 km/h), says the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) in its latest update.
Click to expand...

_108582405_newgraph.png
 
Looking at the images on CNN: terrible.
 
The Bahamas are extremely low lying, so the hurricane has caused extensive flooding: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49561450
Hurricane Dorian is moving very slowly north west over the Bahamas, leaving devastation and flooding in its wake.

Satellite images showed large areas under water, including the Grand Bahama International airport and the town of Marsh Harbour on Abaco Island.

Dorian fell in strength on Tuesday to category two, but the northwest islands continue to endure heavy rain, high winds and storm surges.

Five people were killed when the storm hit the Abaco Islands.

Residents of the northern Bahamas, some trapped on roofs, sent out pleas for help as the storm thrashed the islands on Monday night, stalling at category five with 185mph winds.
Click to expand...

_108594970_trows.png


Grand Bahama's international airport was under 6ft of water, while residents posting on Twitter said a church in Freeport had lost its roof and scores of people were in danger.
Click to expand...

Neither the Abacos nor Grand Bahama are much higher than 40ft above sea level at their highest points. The International Red Cross said it feared wells may have flooded, making clean water unavailable. The organisation said 13,000 houses were feared damaged or destroyed across the nation.
Click to expand...

_108602249_bahamas.jpg
 
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