Paul, I like some of your insights here. Much of the cost of LTE networks is the fiber back haul. If that could be arranged on an open access basis as part of the licensing regime and not just the last mile, then the regulator would be in a position to advance broadband penetration across all current channels far more effectively than just looking at LTE.
Thanks,
My general argument in almost all of these things is that we simply need to have a proper Rule of Law approach to the regulatory framework. An ECN licence (class or individual) carries with it certain structures of behaviour - mandatory facilities leasing, the privilege of digging up roads, access to spectrum - and working from the first principles found in the ECA ECNOs need to conduct their affairs in their best interests and make the necessary commercial arrangements that flow. There was a major disconnect with the Broadband Infraco saga and Sentech has been a bottomless pit of nonsense.
Spectrum is a
spes and not property - the argument to make spectrum property is a separate debate - and it should be treated according to the regulations as they find themselves. A heck of a lot of the regulatory framework and so forth coming from ICASA has historically not been inherently awful and often contains some fairly sound principles as starting positions - the problem is that our market is so badly politically abused and regulatory capture is so deeply ingrained into structures
Paradoxically I think many of the sound principles have made their way into the framework by virtue of each of the players seeking regulatory capture finding an idea or principle which they think will be a big stick or shield for their business (technology medium neutrality for example) without understanding or accepting the full ramifications.
The reality is that Neotel as a going concern of Vodacom is in the long term good for Vodacom (and the industry)- what it won't do is deliver results in the performance metrics which is used to give big executive pay and this is why it isn't being viewed as Plan A.
The reality is that Solidarity actually needs to be honest with their members and say that if Solidarity supported LLU on a facilities leasing basis back in 2011 and it was implemented the job shedding would not be as severe - thus far all that the union has moved on is away from opposition in 2011 to "neutral" in 2013. LLU is in the long term good for Telkom and every day that it doesn't happen more jobs in the sector are put at risk. However we are instead seeing the creation of more opportunities for regulatory capture and corruption with the new ministry and these massive investment demands from Infraco - and silly threats from MTN.
The reality is that MTN were manifestly idiotic in their litigation approach on CTR and Vodacom silly to follow suit. The entire handling of the issue by executives in the sector was an embarrassment and a clear indicator of a lack of confidence in the ICT future of SA. The sad thing is we are two months away from the full weight of round 2 in this little tiff and no evidence of common sense coming to the fore has come from any quarter - if anything the indications coming from CellC is that round 2 will be on steroids.
If Vodacom (Neotel wholesale operations) and Telkom have wholesale LTE and fibre operations and Infraco and DFA have wholesale fibre and Sentech wholesale LTE the future starts to look very bright.