Johannesburg - Beer drinkers everywhere know when their favourite brew tastes a little too hoppy or bitter and connoisseurs could be in for a surprise this year.
Small brewers from Australia to the US face the daunting prospect of tweaking their recipes or experimenting less with new brews due to a worldwide shortage of one key beer ingredient and rising prices for others.
Oh, and one other thing: Beer prices are likely to climb. How high is anybody's guess. Craft brewers don't have the means to hedge against rising prices, like their industrial rivals.
"I'm guessing, at a minimum, at least a 10% jump in beer prices for the average consumer before the end of the year," said Terry Butler, brewmaster at central Washington's Snipes Mountain.
Sales have been relatively flat in recent years among the country's big three brewers - Anheuser-Busch, Molson Coors Brewing and SABMiller unit Miller Brewing - while small, independent brewers have experienced tremendous growth.
The craft brewing industry experienced a 12% increase by volume in 2006, with 6.7m barrels of beer. Sales among microbreweries, which produce less than 15 000 barrels per year, grew 16% in 2006.
Now the bright spot in the brewing industry is facing mounting costs on nearly every front. Fuel, aluminum and glass prices have been going up quickly over a period of several years. Barley and wheat prices have skyrocketed as more farmers plant corn to meet increasing demand for ethanol, while others plant feed crops to replace acres lost to corn.
A decade-long oversupply of hops that had forced farmers to abandon the crop is finally gone and harvests were down this year. In the US, where one-fourth of the world's hops are grown, acreage fell 30% between 1995 and 2006.
Australia endured its worst drought on record. Hail storms across Europe damaged crops. Extreme heat in the western United States hurt both yields and quality.
Big brewers can hedge against rising prices for raw ingredients and can negotiate better, longer-term contracts for ingredients, while smaller brewers generally are left with whatever is left.
SABMiller's South African operations, South African Breweries, earlier this year had a supply scare due to high demand and a shortage of glass.
High demand for brands in returnable bottles has put pressure on the availability of these packs. At the same time, the increased demand on non- returnable bottles has resulted in an intermittent glass shortage from the major suppliers, and a temporary shortage of stocks in certain brands, SAB said.
SAB spokesperson Shirley Scriven said at the time consumers were buying increased volumes across the spectrum of SAB premium brands, which include Peroni Nastro Azzurro, Pilsner Urquell and Miller Genuine Draft, as well as in mainstream brands.
The glass shortages forced SAB to import bottles, while reprioritising glass production from its suppliers.
Back in the States, Snipes Mountain saw its barley malt prices grow between 10-15% this year, and paid $12.35 per pound for Cascade hops, far beyond the $5.60 per pound allotted last year.
Those rising prices and, in some cases, shortages, may force Butler to rethink his lineup of 13 beers in the months ahead.
He'll also be tinkering with a Hefeweizen recipe that relies on Saaz hops, a mild variety popular with Bohemian pilsners, after severe weather in Europe dinged as much as 40% of the crop.
"Palate-wise, it may change the flavour a little bit, but only a little bit," he said.
- AP
Then she is back in my class again
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