Thinking about State Failure - African and SA context

Rocco1

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RW Johnson |17 February 2021

"So the state is failing. And we ain’t seen nothing yet. Just wait as more and more SOEs collapse and savage spending cuts further deplete the state’s capacity. All of which has engendered considerable discussion of South Africa becoming a “failed state”. Indeed, in September 2020 Eunomix Business and Economics Ltd, a risk consultancy, forecast that without “a meaningful change of trajectory, South Africa will be a failed state by 2030”.

But it is no good talking as if there is some box labelled “failed state” which we will then neatly slot into. Indeed, such a conception is hopelessly ahistorical. To understand better we need to think about the processes set in motion by African independence across the continent which have, inter alia, produced some failed or failing states."
 

Rocco1

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headline - without “a meaningful change of trajectory, South Africa will be a failed state by 2030

Really like reading RW Johnson articles - Well researched, contextualised and thought through.

Following soon by a follow up article what happens next...
 

D.B.Cooper

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Elsewhere African presidents used similar techniques to those employed by Nkrumah, including rigged elections, violence and intimidation and, almost everywhere, attempts to buy off the educated elite with ludicrously inflated civil service salaries.

That sounds familiar.
 

Sollie

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What's Bretix?

PS. The world isn't going to end because some butterfly farted in Australia ;)
Goeie begryper ....

PS: Yes, and Zim 2.0r2893009v548588 is doing fine. Please tell them that.
 

Moto Guzzi

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RW Johnson |17 February 2021

"So the state is failing. And we ain’t seen nothing yet. Just wait as more and more SOEs collapse and savage spending cuts further deplete the state’s capacity. All of which has engendered considerable discussion of South Africa becoming a “failed state”. Indeed, in September 2020 Eunomix Business and Economics Ltd, a risk consultancy, forecast that without “a meaningful change of trajectory, South Africa will be a failed state by 2030”.

But it is no good talking as if there is some box labelled “failed state” which we will then neatly slot into. Indeed, such a conception is hopelessly ahistorical. To understand better we need to think about the processes set in motion by African independence across the continent which have, inter alia, produced some failed or failing states."

If the state is failed totally you see politicians flee the country one by one, but as long as they hang in there not all is lost yet, however for the middleclass & poor it can be failed state for all practical purposes as well as that no future is seen, difficult times with a future seen is something different and way forward.
 

rietrot

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If the state is failed totally you see politicians flee the country one by one, but as long as they hang in there not all is lost yet, however for the middleclass & poor it can be failed state for all practical purposes as well as that no future is seen, difficult times with a future seen is something different and way forward.
Unlikely. Look at Zim. The politicians stayed.

The opposition politicians might flee if they start prosecuting each other. There's also examples of that were you get plenty of exiles
 

rietrot

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When is a country a failed state?

What part of the government is left here by us that cannot be described as a failure or busy failing.

Maybe just grants, seems like government know that that still prevents the people from revolting.

When the grant money runs out maybe we would become a real failed state.
 

newklear

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When is a country a failed state?

What part of the government is left here by us that cannot be described as a failure or busy failing.

Maybe just grants, seems like government know that that still prevents the people from revolting.

When the grant money runs out maybe we would become a real failed state.

According to the definition on Wikipedia:
1613801704741.png
There seem to be some ticks on the criteria already.
 

surface

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headline - without “a meaningful change of trajectory, South Africa will be a failed state by 2030

Really like reading RW Johnson articles - Well researched, contextualised and thought through.

Following soon by a follow up article what happens next...
So, we have to wait 9 years then. Ah, well.
 

Mystic Twilight

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...

Maybe just grants, seems like government know that that still prevents the people from revolting.

When the grant money runs out maybe we would become a real failed state.

Social grants are currently voter buying disguised inside social welfare. The grants themselves are indifferent, but the anc have politicized it to portray it being an anc only thing, vote anyone else and the grants will disappear. To the poor there is no choice but to vote for the anc to keep the money flowing, this is literally vote rigging but indirectly.

Edit: So what I mean is, the high dependence on social grants at a high volume/percentage of the population is already an indicator of a failed democratic state as voting ballots is to some extent already predetermined/biased. It's not just the legal age grant recipients, minors also become preconditioned to believe that, income/survival = [child] grant = anc, therefore vote anc when you want the free uif, food parcel, rdp house, etc, vote anyone else and you get nothing.
 
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Supervan II

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Social grants are currently voter buying disguised inside social welfare. The grants themselves are indifferent, but the anc have politicized it to portray it being an anc only thing, vote anyone else and the grants will disappear. To the poor there is no choice but to vote for the anc to keep the money flowing, this is literally vote rigging but indirectly.
That's no lie. Just after turning 60, I approached DOHA to register for state pension. Was basically told to get lost - the amount of hoops you have to jump through is unbelievable, from various docs being certified / proof of unemployment? / bank statements (including spouse), etc.. I was also told that I also need to have a valuation done on our property?

Was retrenched in 2019 and have been unemployed since. Also "didn't qualify" for the R350 CoVid19 grant either,
This after being paying taxes since I was 16 years old! :mad:
 

Peon

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If only the Avengers could rock up and teach the anc a lesson. Reading the Johnson article suggests depressingly that's the only type of solution for Africa.
 

C4Cat

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Really like reading RW Johnson articles - Well researched, contextualised and thought through
Guy is like a stuck record, just repeating the same **** over and over again. His predictions generally go nowhere
 
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