Total electricity grid collapse warning for SA

[Swa]

I think there is almost zero chance of that happening.
That being said, I have made plans for quick passage out of the country to Europe if it does come to pass

By boat? Aviation could come to a standstill.

 

[JStrike]

By boat? Aviation could come to a standstill.

Private aviation

 

[Swa]

Private aviation

You own a plane?

 

[JStrike]

You own a plane?

Not personally, no

 

[cybershark]

Am I missing something? Is he saying that 1000MW is 2.5% of what is considered appropriate? That means he reckon 40GW is appropriate safety margin?

Yes, No(Eskom is saying 1000MW is their reserve margin for winter), No

“The normal safety margin around the world is 15%, that is roughly 6.5 GW.

 

[kolakidd]

Blom's background is in the financial and legal fields. He is not an "energy analyst" as stated in the article and is talking outside of his field of expertise. That is why the numbers do not make sense to technical people.

I'm not saying he is right, or not a bit of a tin foil hat, but to be fair if you look at his Linkedin profile he has done this:
"Eskom 1987 – 1989 (2 years)
Headed up team of 17 Post Grads internal consultants into all divisions of Conglomerate to sort out crises issues, restore order and implement solutions. Personally held portfolio for Coal procurement contracts and financial modeling of 40 yrs long term agreements."

..and then consulted on mining & energy since then pretty consistently. However, again, to emphasize. It doesn't necessarily make him right.

 

[Creag]

Despite the increasingly repetitive feel to these stories, I have learned something new today. "Bovine Scatology". And who said you can't teach an old dog new tricks.

/heads off to buy more gas bottles

 

[Seriously]

We are just making ourselves a laughing stock. We can’t call ourselves a developmental state if we can hardly keep the lights on as a country,” said Cosatu Gauteng secretary Dumisani Dakile.

Took you 20 years to come to that realization? You are part of the problem and not part of any solution Cocksatu.

 

[Sonic2k]

And another 30 years to realize Apartheid and Jan v Riebeeck are NOT TO BLAME for the current mess

 

[Creag]

And another 30 years to realize Apartheid and Jan v Riebeeck are NOT TO BLAME for the current mess

So this realisation will only occur +/- 50 and 393 years respectively after their exit and entrance (also respectively)? Eish!

 

[Fudzy]

Chris Yeillland needs to deliver this guy a PK.

 

[me_]

Yes, No(Eskom is saying 1000MW is their reserve margin for winter), No

“The normal safety margin around the world is 15%, that is roughly 6.5 GW.

I think there is some confusion between the different reserve margins.

The global standard is a 15% planning reserve margin. This differs from the operating reserve margin which is much lower.
Planning reserve is calculated as: total capacity - peak demand / peak demand
From the figures provided in the article, Eskom has a planning approximately 27% for peak winter demand. The planning reserve works off total capacity (including units out of service) and is used to allow for all planned and unplanned outages as well as increases above forecast demand.
Companies with a 15% reserve will usually use 7-10% for planned maintenance and leave the remaining 5 - 8% for unplanned outages and increased demand.

Operating reserve margin takes into account planned and unplanned outages and would therefore be a much lower percent. I'm not sure what the global best practice is here, but the most it could possible be is the allowance for unplanned outages above, however since companies would predict unplanned outages, it should be lower than this.

 

[riverdusty]

 

[Swa]

And another 30 years to realize Apartheid and Jan v Riebeeck are NOT TO BLAME for the current mess

Nah they never will. The next administration will just keep blaming this one 20 years in. Like in America where they keep switching and blaming the previous administration.

 

[Nerfherder]

I trust analysts more than I trust Eskom, even if they have shares in baked beans.

This guy just wants to get his name in the news.

Everyone is an analyst these days

 

[Necuno]

Total electricity grid collapse warning for South Africa

There is a more than 50% chance that the country’s energy grid will suffer a total collapse soon, energy analyst Ted Blom said on Wednesday.

oh yes, i'm prepared mybb told me to get my first aid kit together!

 

[ghostR]

oh yes, i'm prepared mybb told me to get my first aid kit together!

ahh, there's good ol' necuno back

 

[HavocXphere]

Whole thing is a waste of time. They're actively obfuscating the number judging by the fact that they stopped publishing them regularly imo. To me the fact that they regularly loadsheds points towards a zero/negative safety margin...thats kinda why they loadshed. Personally I consider the dark city blocks a much more reliable source of info than the claimed 1GW safety margin.

 

[johncgalloway]

Okay... not taking into account the state of the army, can't a para-military engineering force be trained up, then invade Eskom, take over the workings and get rid of the people holding us ransom, I mean if only at the management levels? It's silly and ridiculous I know, but at this point it feels like this entire country is being held to ransom, except I can't figure out if it's the government doing it, or the government.

 

[Sonic2k]

Okay... not taking into account the state of the army, can't a para-military engineering force be trained up, then invade Eskom, take over the workings and get rid of the people holding us ransom, I mean if only at the management levels? It's silly and ridiculous I know, but at this point it feels like this entire country is being held to ransom, except I can't figure out if it's the government doing it, or the government.

Won't help.
Once the machine is broken and you don't have the knowledge to fix it, it just sits there.
That is the reality of Eskom. You see they will rather let the machine just sit there, broken, and get Cubans in, than ask a whitey who knows something about it, to help and fix it.