US Government shutdown and Dollar

Drifter

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You would think the dollar should take a pounding with the US Government shutdown, but no, the Rand just weakens further against it:


Washington - The United States lurched into a dreaded government shutdown early on Tuesday for the first time in 17 years, triggering agency closures and hundreds of thousands of furloughs as Congress missed a deadline to pass a budget.

Ten minutes before midnight bells rang throughout a deeply divided Washington, and after a day of furious brinkmanship President Barack Obama's Democrats and rival Republicans, the White House ordered federal agencies to initiate their shutdown procedures.

"We urge Congress to act quickly to pass a Continuing Resolution to provide a short-term bridge that ensures sufficient time to pass a budget for the remainder of the fiscal year," Management and Budget director Sylvia Mathews Burwell said in a memo to agencies.
http://www.news24.com/World/News/US-slides-into-government-shutdown-20131001
 
That's because a blow to the US economy means a knock-on effect all around the world for other economies as well.
That far outweighs any currency gains made by opposing currencies.
This could well end up like another 2008 meltdown depending how long it goes on for.
 
Quite something. Went onto the NOAA site just now and found this:

US shutdown.jpg

Then - Reuters - Dollar tumbles to 8-month low on government shutdown
"Expectations that the first U.S. government shutdown in 17 years could hurt the world's largest economy sent the dollar to its lowest level against a basket of major currencies in nearly eight months on Tuesday."

:erm:
 
Fema camps for all.i really enjoy the youtube videos that predicted this years months before this happened
 
Folks are suggesting that Congress should also not be paid salaries, etc. until the situation is resolved! Great idea:D
 
Folks are suggesting that Congress should also not be paid salaries, etc. until the situation is resolved! Great idea:D

http://nolan.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/nolan-no-pay-for-congress-in-federal-shutdown

“No Government – No Pay Act of 2013”
WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan (MN-08) today introduced the “No Government – No Pay Act” of 2013 – legislation requiring that Members of Congress be paid no salary during a government shutdown. Following introduction, Nolan issued this statement:

“The inability of this Congress to collaborate, compromise, and get things done has led me to introduce legislation to prohibit Members from being paid when failure to do their job results in a government shutdown.

In the event of a shutdown, Congress must work around the clock without pay to resolve a budget crisis.

Meanwhile, if other working people are to go without pay, and important government services are shut down – jeopardizing jobs and our economic recovery – then the Congress responsible for the mess should not be paid either.

It’s time for Congress to start living in the real world – where you either do your job, or you don’t get paid.
The American people sent this Congress to Washington to use common sense – to collaborate, compromise, solve problems and govern – not to shut down the federal government. It’s time to restore Regular Order and put an end to government by crisis.”
 
Just a side note and this is a bit of a generalization but:

Many people expect the dollar to do badly when things are difficult in the US but in most cases the opposite happens. This is due to the fact that money is returned to the US in difficult times i.e. when things get difficult companies tend to scale down investments abroad and bring money back to the US resulting in more dollar buying thus supporting the dollar.

When things are going well they are more inclined to risks and thus invest more abroad and thus the selling of dollars takes place i.e. the dollar weakens.

I know, a [big] generalization but often people don't understand why the markets can move in the 'wrong' direction.
 
Stupid issues local like strike action hurt the rand more than these foreign knock-on effect issues do.
 
Shutdown deepens fears of looming debt crisis

Washington and international officials raised the alarm Thursday on a potentially disastrous clash over the U.S. debt limit, as Democrats and Republicans remained no closer to resolving a separate budget feud that has shut down much of the government.

The government limped into its third day of the shutdown, with both sides digging into their stances on the health care dispute that triggered it. House Republicans are refusing to pass a temporary spending bill without steps to seriously curtail Barack Obama's signature health care law. Democrats who control the Senate refuse to negotiate on those demands.

Now, the dispute could grow to encompass legislation needed by mid-October to raise the debt limit.

That has raised fears of a worst-possible outcome: If Congress fails to raise the borrowing cap, the U.S. could default on its obligations for the first time and send shockwaves across the world.

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde warned the U.S. not to allow the standoff to get that far.

"The government shutdown is bad enough, but failure to raise the debt ceiling would be far worse, and could very seriously damage not only the U.S. economy, but the entire global economy," Lagarde said in a speech.

"So it is "mission-critical" that this be resolved as soon as possible," she said.

The U.S. Treasury warned that failure to raise that debt ceiling could spark a new recession even worse than the one Americans are still recovering from.

Obama laid the blame Thursday at the feet of the Republican leader of the House. He cast Speaker John Boehner as a captive of a small band of conservative activists who want to extract concessions in exchange for passing the short term spending bill that would restart the government.

"The only thing preventing people from going back to work and basic research starting back up and farmers and small business owners getting their loans, the only thing that is preventing all that from happening right now, today, in the next five minutes is that Speaker John Boehner won't even let the bill get a yes or no vote because he doesn't want to anger the extremists in his party," Obama said.

Boehner swiftly shot back, criticizing Obama and his "my-way-or-the-highway approach." Boehner said that if the president would negotiate to fix flaws in "Obamacare," the shutdown could end.

"The president's insistence on steamrolling ahead with this flawed program is irresponsible," he said.

The exchange came a day after a White House meeting between Obama and congressional leaders yielded no progress.

At issue is the sweeping overhaul of the U.S. health care system that is the centerpiece of Obama's domestic policy agenda. The 3-year-old law is designed to extend insurance to millions of Americans without coverage. Republicans - led by a core of conservatives aligned with the small-government tea party movement - argue the plan is costing jobs and intruding on private decision-making by requiring Americans to have health insurance.

The shutdown is keeping hundreds of thousands of federal workers home and affecting Americans in ways large and small. Scores of government programs, from feeding pregnant women to staffing call centers at the federal tax agency, were disrupted. Obama truncated a long-planned trip to Asia.

The shutdown itself is estimated to trim only about 0.2 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product each week. But that could grow worse if the impasse begins to erode consumer and business confidence.

The U.S. stock market sank to its lowest level in a month Thursday, while indexes in Germany and France also fell.

The shutdown closed national parks and forced 800,000 employees - nearly a third of the federal workforce - off the job, amid mounting anger from the public.

For two dozen couples, the shutdown meant they may be forced to cancel their October weddings scheduled for closed off monuments in Washington. Prospective home owners applying for mortgages were facing delays because many need government confirmation of their financial data. For American Indian tribes, the effects were more immediate. Programs including health care for the elderly and disabled and bus service for rural areas were suspended indefinitely for Montana's 13,000-member Crow Tribe.

"We're already taking calls from people saying, 'Who's going to take care of my mom? Who's going to take care of my dad" said Shar Simpson, who leads the Crow's home health care program.

People classified as essential employees - such as air traffic controllers, Border Patrol agents and most food inspectors - continued to work.

On Thursday, Republicans planned to continue pursuing their latest strategy: muscling bills through the House that would restart some popular programs.

Democrats demanded that the entire government be reopened. They said the Republican strategy showed the party was buckling under public pressure.


Source : Sapa-AP /cls
Date : 03 Oct 2013 20:49
 
US Stocks tumble on third day of shutdown

US stocks suffered hefty losses Thursday as the partial government shutdown dragged through a third day and worries climbed that the budget battle could escalate into a default.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 136.28 points (0.90 percent) to 14,996.86.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell 15.30 (0.90 percent) to 1,678.57, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 40.68 (1.07 percent) to 3,774.34.

While the shutdown has fueled jitters, analysts have generally expressed even deeper concerns about the October 17 deadline to raise the debt ceiling.

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde warned that a US failure to raise the ceiling could wreak havoc on the global economy, while the Treasury Department said a default could have a "catastrophic" effect on the economy.

The comments likely raised the anxiety of some investors, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of BMO Private Bank.

But Ablin said swings of 400 and 500 points occurred during the last big fight on the debt ceiling in 2011. "As we close in on the deadline, we could see heightened levels of volatility," he said.

Ablin also cited "somewhat disappointing" data from the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM reading on non-manufacturing activity fell to 54.4 percent in September, down 4.2 points from August.


Source : Sapa-AFP /cls
Date : 03 Oct 2013 22:17
 
US warns of catastrophic shutdown

US President Barack Obama demanded an end to a three-day government shutdown he decried as a reckless "farce," piling pressure on Republicans Thursday to climb down first on a budget impasse.

The US Treasury meanwhile warned of "catastrophic" consequences if there is no deal within weeks to raise the US debt ceiling, and the IMF chief said finding a way out of that next crisis was "mission critical."

Obama traveled to the Washington suburbs to lambaste Republican House Speaker John Boehner, who emerged from a White House meeting late on Wednesday complaining that Obama would not negotiate with him.

"Take a vote, stop this farce and end this shutdown right now," Obama said during a fiery speech in the Maryland suburb of Rockville, which is home to many federal workers laid off in the shutdown.

Branding the crisis a "reckless Republican shutdown," Obama said that Boehner could reopen the government and get hundreds of thousands of people back to work "in just five minutes" by passing a temporary operating budget with no partisan strings attached.

"Speaker John Boehner won't even let the bill get a yes or no vote, because he doesn't want to anger the extremists in his party," Obama said.

The government ran out of money on Monday, after Congress failed to pass a budget, forcing authorities to send all non-essential workers home and to close museums, monuments and national parks that are all popular with tourists.

The Democratic-led Senate had turned back repeated Republican efforts to pass a budget while defunding or delaying Obama's health care law, which is a centerpiece of his political legacy and reviled by Tea Party conservatives.

The talks at the White House between Obama and congressional leaders made no progress, and there is no sign that the dispute will be solved before dragging into a second week.

Attention is increasingly turning to the next fight -- over Congress's responsibility to raise the $16.7 trillion US statutory borrowing limit.

If there is no resolution before October 17, the government could begin running out of money to pay its bills and an unprecedented US debt default could result.

But Republicans are again demanding concessions on Obamacare before voting to raise the debt ceiling, raising fears of unpredictable consequences, which the Treasury said in a report Thursday could plunge the United States into deep recession and rock global markets.

"In the event that a debt limit impasse were to lead to a default, it could have a catastrophic effect on not just financial markets but also on job creation, consumer spending and economic growth," the report said.

"Credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, US interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse."

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said finding a way out of the debt limit dead end as soon as possible was "mission critical."

The New York Times reported Thursday that Boehner had privately told House Republicans that he understood the dangers of a default and was ready to pass a debt limit increase with the help of minority Democrats if necessary.

Obama has refused to negotiate with Republicans over raising the debt ceiling, saying Congress is simply authorizing borrowing to pay bills it has already run up and that offering concessions would set a poor precedent for future presidents.

In the minds of key players on Capitol Hill, the government shutdown and the debt ceiling fight have now merged into one massive political crisis.

There was some talk among Republicans that Boehner may try to craft a face-saving way out by reviving a stalled drive for a "grand bargain" on debt and spending with Obama.

But there is skepticism on the Democratic side that there is time to pull together a pact -- following repeated failed attempts in Obama's first term -- before the debt limit needs to be raised by October 17.

The president was meanwhile wrestling with whether to cancel the rest of an already truncated Asia trip that would see him leave on Saturday for the APEC summit in Bali, Indonesia and the East Asia summit in Brunei.

Going ahead would open him to charges of deserting Washington at a time of national crisis.

But Obama is also keen to demonstrate that political problems at home should not be taken as a sign of weakness abroad, and wants to bolster his signature rebalancing of US military and diplomatic power to the dynamic Asian region.


Source : Sapa-AFP /cls
Date : 03 Oct 2013 22:43
 
This...

"Credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, US interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse."
:cry: - the potential repercussions are so significant. Another major stock market crash is just NOT what is needed. Hoping they resolve the impasse before too much damage is done. On the other hand, maybe the Americans will realise just how little Congress is actually needed to run their daily lives? Or is that not realistic? Interested.
 
......On the other hand, maybe the Americans will realise just how little Congress is actually needed to run their daily lives? Or is that not realistic? Interested.

What do you think the impact of taking those billions of dollars of US govt spending out of the US economy will have on the South African economy and hence your livelihood ? Be careful of what you wish for :)
 
What do you think the impact of taking those billions of dollars of US govt spending out of the US economy will have on the South African economy and hence your livelihood ? Be careful of what you wish for :)
Not wishing for it AT ALL. Precisely the opposite, hence my concern.

Not sure that you get what I meant, which was that if daily life is continuing more or less as usual in the States (not sure whether it is or not) - the average American may begin to wonder what they are actually paying Congress to do? The "terrorism" by the Republican-lead contingent might not be unprecedented, but it may well lead to an unprecedented collapse of a whole load of economies. Not nice at all.
 
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