Volatile middle east current events

w1z4rd

Karmic Sangoma
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Its on all the major news pubplications. http://www.cnn.com, http://www.bbc.uk, whereever you look basicaly. This conflict has a serious chance of spiraling out of control.

If any of the other arab countries join into this, or israel attacks any other countries, this could start a massive war...

We have wheel tappers in charge of Iran and the USA... this could really bad. Where do you think this is going to go?
 
Can't see it going too much further than it has already. The arab countries by now know they can't hope to match israel's military and with such a sizeable US force in the area they might be more reasonable then normal.

Stupidity abounds on every front in the middle east at the moment and I don't see it ever changing.
 
icyrus tell me :

thats what the US thought when it invaded iraq
now look at them, stuck fighting everyone in iraq because anyone can be the enemy

watch lebanon, big problems coming
once israel attack Iran the end of the world is near
 
IMO the US invaded Iraq for a number of reasons. Some are (as I see it) ...

- The US homeland cannot be sealed off and protected forever from the new kind of threat posed by terrorists after 9/11 - so the fight was taken elsewhere. Irag thus acts as bait pulling terrorists to an area far away from the US homeland. Sadam with all his longstanding issues offered the US the perfect battleground away from home. The US is thus far happier to fight "anyone can be the enemy" in Iraq instead of on US soil.
- The US wants to protect and appease the Saudi Royal family. Sadam has always posed a serious threat to the US-Saudi order. Yes, its also about oil as the US need it to fuel their economy. The US gains far more from a good relationship with the Saudi Royals than the price they now pay in Iraq.
- Iraq has always been a **** and Don pet project :)

Now back to Israel and Lebanon ...

Syria holds the key to where this fight is going. What Syria decides to do - or what Israel decides to do against it - will determine where this is going. Israel will not attack Iran. The US won't allow it. But Israel may have a go at Syria (but I doubt it very much). Pressure from Syria and Iran can force Hizb to hand over the kidnapped Israelis - bringing the whole thing to rest. But nothing in the Middle East happens in isolation. The question is why is Hizb so aggressive and cocky all of a sudden? It comes at a time when Iran is challenging the US with its nuclear programme. Is it a way of diverting attention or forcing the US' hand on another issue? To me the current flare-up seems more like a political chess game between Iran and the US than an actual Hizb-Israeli war that will grow to something bigger. But its a very dangerous chess game that can pull the wrong players. Mayb ethe idea is to move the dangerous players in Iraq to Lebanon to give the US some space in Iraq ... who really knows?!
 
Where I wrote "Hizb" it should read "Hezbollah". Took me a while to get the correct spelling.
 
Trafeye said:
Mayb ethe idea is to move the dangerous players in Iraq to Lebanon to give the US some space in Iraq ... who really knows?!

Interesting theory, I agree Syria is the key to this thing spiralling out of control.

Israel might be forced to act against Syria, their administration is not very experienced, trying to assert itself and got in on a "hard-line" ticket. Every news report now mentions the Katusha missiles from Hezbollah as Syrian weapons - focussing more and more attention on Syria. Scary.
 
Syria, as I see it, is not interested in a fight with Israel. The Syrians are more business than ideology and wouldn't want their vested interests in Lebanon to be damaged. Iran is more driven by ideology and might be fanning the flames - up to a predefined point. Maybe Iran is stirring Hezbollah in Lebanon with the aim of eventually playing the role as peacemaker in the current fight - to win US support for Iran's own Shia plans in Iraq. The actual fight might be over who gets control over the rich oil fields in southern Iraq.
 
I think Israel have the motives here, it was their idea to go missiles blazing at Lebanon - widely accepted as an "over-reaction" to Hezbollah crossing the border and kidnapping 2 soldiers, killing 8.

"Experts" on BBC agreed this plan was not hatched over-night and would have been carefully mapped out weeks or months beforehand. Nice to see the news still has time to fit in the Palestinian foreign ministery blown to bits between the bombs and missiles flying between Lebanon and Israel.
 
Israel have actions plans for all scenarios - so the current response was obviously not hatched over-night - but carefully mapped-out and "war-gamed". Anything less would be stupid in their situation. I sometimes wonder about these media "experts" ...

Hezbollah started this fight - knowing full well what Israel would do. They also planned this carefully - or I should rather say someone else planned it for them with a bigger prize in mind. Hezbollah is the hands and feet of others in the Middle East.
 
Found this little gem earlier: http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1822620,00.html

Unaware that his microphone was switched on President Bush was recorded telling Tony Blair that Syria should press Hizbullah to "stop doing this ****".

IMHO, watch carefully as the US propoganda machine goes to work to blur the lines between Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. The US dearly wants to (needs to?) invade Iran and they cannot get into Iran the same way they got into Iraq. Soon Iran will be "behind these attacks" and an "invasion is justified" will soon follow. Interesting times ahead.
 
kingmonty said:
Found this little gem earlier: http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1822620,00.html



IMHO, watch carefully as the US propoganda machine goes to work to blur the lines between Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. The US dearly wants to (needs to?) invade Iran and they cannot get into Iran the same way they got into Iraq. Soon Iran will be "behind these attacks" and an "invasion is justified" will soon follow. Interesting times ahead.


I would be very much suprised to see the US invade Iran anytime soon. Last I heard they were short on troops...
 
I've already stated that I believe Iran is behind these attacks. If one follows the events in Iraq - and the M-E in general - one can easily see the possibility without the US' assistance. The line between Hezbollah, Syria and Iran has always been a blur. The US propaganda machine doesn't even need to start its engine on this one.

I do not believe the US wants to invade Iran anyway - no dire need to do so and not enough to gain in compared to the expected blowback. North Korea is much higher on the US list - but China stands in the way. I hold to my theory that Iran is behind Hezbollah's moves to eventually play the peacemaker role with other gains elsewhere in mind. But it's anybody's guess ...
 
Coming soon to a DVD store near you...

World War III : The Return

...yes, you too can own the complete saga. WWI, WWII and now WWIII - the best sequel yet !

Critics are saying: "10/10 ! Best war yet ! A touching performance by military forces world wide."

Coming 2006....
 
lord_spaceman said:
Coming soon to a DVD store near you...

World War III : The Return

...yes, you too can own the complete saga. WWI, WWII and now WWIII - the best sequel yet !

Critics are saying: "10/10 ! Best war yet ! A touching performance by military forces world wide."

Coming 2006....

You left out Bush War I and Bush War II between WWII and WWIII :)
 
lord_spaceman said:
Coming soon to a DVD store near you...

World War III : The Return

...yes, you too can own the complete saga. WWI, WWII and now WWIII - the best sequel yet !

Critics are saying: "10/10 ! Best war yet ! A touching performance by military forces world wide."

Coming 2006....


I'm not sure about the "Coming 2006..." but yeah, it's coming.
 
Trafeye said:
I've already stated that I believe Iran is behind these attacks.

Indeed ... they are now fighting a proxy war for the Iranians and relieving pressure on Hamas in Gaza and also themselves regarding their nuclear program in the UN.

The two cruise missiles that was launched at the Israeli corvette was too sophisticated of an attack for Hezbollah to carry out ... it is no secret that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have "advisors" in the Beeka valley helping Hezbollah since they were formed by the Iranians.

Also those missiles that hit Haifa and other cities were of an Iranian type that was never used before in the conflict ... why suddenly now and not before in the past ???.

Yep the Iranians are running the show.
 
According to Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sources, the attack was conducted by Chinese C-802. Apparently, two missiles were launched toward the Israel Navy Ship (INS) Hanit (Spear), SAAR V class corvette patrolling the Lebanese coast 16 kilometers from the shore. The attack was a coordinated, simultaneous “high/low” attack - the first “high” missile passed over the Israeli ship. Missing the target, it continued flying, hitting and sinking a civilian Egyptian ship cruising 60 kilometers from the shore. The second missile followed a sea-skimming flight profile hitting the Israeli vessel at the stern, killing four sailors and setting the flight deck on fire and crippling the propulsion systems inside the hull. Surviving the potentially devastating attack INS Hanit returned to Ashdod naval base for repairs.

The simultaneous attack was probably using two techniques as well, ensuring maximum chances of success. The Israeli Navy believes the missiles used targeing data from Lebanese coastal radars, therefore maintaining low electro-magnetic signature throughout the attack prparation phase. The first missiles was apparently used as a radar-guided “bait”. seducing the ship to deploy its defensive systems against it, focusing all the attention on the “obvious” threat while the second sea-skimming missile closing below. A supporting fact for this assumption is the fact that the first missile locked on the unfortunate Egyptian ship 44 kilometers away, as it was the next visible target in its flightpath. The second, missile could have been guided by radar or, more probably, Electro-optically. This method would require the launch of two types of missiles, a C-801/802 for the “high” profile and a C-701 TV guided missile for the “low” profile.

http://www.defense-update.com/2006/07/ins-hanit-suffers-iranian-missile.html
 
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