Will PE pull off a 'Cape Town' ?

[MickeyD]

The way I see it, the DA won't win. What they need is for the UDM and or COPE to somehow pull enough votes away from the ANC. A DA led coalition could work, but I don't see the DA getting 50% +1 on their own. Maybe if COPE wasn't falling apart this would be more likely. However, COPE is a joke at the moment, and the UDM has been losing support for years.

Looks like we are on the same wavelength.

It will definitely be a close run contest. Neither the ANC nor the DA will get 50% (+ 1 vote) and they will have to form a coalition with the other parties and independents.

The traditional "White" wards are mostly DA strongholds so the real battle will be for the Northern Areas (50/50) and the predominantly "Black" wards (ANC strongholds).

The current political climate in iBhayi is very negative towards the ruling party but this does not mean that the disillusioned electorate will vote for the opposition. There has also been plenty of dissatisfaction about the nomination process and the (voting) ward members are not happy with the ANC's final list.

Many ANC members/voters have expressed their intent to boycott or spoil their ballot and this plays into the hands of COPE (yes, better believe it!).

 

[cr@zydude]

Looks like we are on the same wavelength.

Yip, your post is just about perfect. The biggest battle will most likely be fought in the Northen Areas, which is why the DA did most of their campaigning there.