Will the Rand ever reach R8.50/$ Again?

Mortymoose

Mortymoose

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Straight forward,

Will we ever see the exchange rate come back to R8.50/U$ again?

Always thought if it did come back to that range, then would be the right time to get dosh out of Africa.... but it would appear that the ship has sailed without me treasure.

What happens if a financial crises hits the world like last time, expect it was worse and 1st world currencies dropped in value?

Could this happen?

Or ..... will the Rand head off into the horizon at R20/U$?

Some economists think the rand is undervalued!

:confused:
 
The ZAR will continue its steady decline. It is impossible for us to have 8% interest rate here while it's 0.5% overseas and not have devaluation.
 
The Rand is undervalue. However it's in the best interest of the country for it to be higher than $8.50. We export more than we import. Once our revenue stream changes from export to import then only will you see a change for the better. It's a balancing act I'm glad I don't need to be doing.
 
Mortymoose said:
Straight forward,

Will we ever see the exchange rate come back to R8.50/U$ again?

Always thought if it did come back to that range, then would be the right time to get dosh out of Africa.... but it would appear that the ship has sailed without me treasure.

What happens if a financial crises hits the world like last time, expect it was worse and 1st world currencies dropped in value?

Could this happen?

Or ..... will the Rand head off into the horizon at R20/U$?

Some economists think the rand is undervalued!

:confused:
Click to expand...

Yes, by as much as R5.00 to the $.
 
It can.

We just need most of the following to happen:
* SARB to increase rates before the US Fed - Possible
* No further downward ratings action by the ratings agencies. (In fact we probably need some upgrade to have any effect.) - Very unlikely
* More stable electricity supply - Even more unlikely
* Economic growth greater than 3% - improbable

These are not independent, and one can lead to another
 
Hypothetical: The Rand continues to devalue. SA earns junk bond status at mid-year. The deficit continues to grow. Another one million jobs are lost under Zuma's leadership. There is an exodus of a further one million skilled, experienced people out of SA. He continues to tighten his control over state security departments and essential state utilities.
Where does SA likely then stand at the end of 2018?
 
See old showerhead has bloated his cabinet even more, to strengthen his support base...
 
the eskimo said:
It can.

We just need most of the following to happen:
* SARB to increase rates before the US Fed - Possible
* No further downward ratings action by the ratings agencies. (In fact we probably need some upgrade to have any effect.) - Very unlikely
* More stable electricity supply - Even more unlikely
* Economic growth greater than 3% - improbable

These are not independent, and one can lead to another
Click to expand...

On rating agencies, since when have they become the such powerful entities...??
 
Milano said:
Hypothetical: The Rand continues to devalue. SA earns junk bond status at mid-year. The deficit continues to grow. Another one million jobs are lost under Zuma's leadership. There is an exodus of a further one million skilled, experienced people out of SA. He continues to tighten his control over state security departments and essential state utilities.
Where does SA likely then stand at the end of 2018?
Click to expand...

2018 = hopefully at a point where more of the 63%'ers decide, its time for a change...
 
yebocan said:
On rating agencies, since when have they become the such powerful entities...??
Click to expand...

Always, but the reason its such a big deal now is because we are on the edge of investment grade and dropping out of that is a big issue. Higher up on the list a notch downgrade isn't as big an issue.

@OP: According to our chief economist (I work for a bank), it should pull back to purchasing power parity (which would be about R8 currently) at some point. But that point could be in 2 to 5 years time.
 
Jehosefat said:
@OP: According to our chief economist (I work for a bank), it should pull back to purchasing power parity (which would be about R8 currently) at some point. But that point could be in 2 to 5 years time.
Click to expand...

That is what I am led to believe..... it will return, but shall take a good few years.....
 
Milano said:
Hypothetical: The Rand continues to devalue. SA earns junk bond status at mid-year. The deficit continues to grow. Another one million jobs are lost under Zuma's leadership. There is an exodus of a further one million skilled, experienced people out of SA. He continues to tighten his control over state security departments and essential state utilities.
Where does SA likely then stand at the end of 2018?
Click to expand...

Could very easily see this scenario playing out.
 
Pitbull said:
The Rand is undervalue. However it's in the best interest of the country for it to be higher than $8.50. We export more than we import. Once our revenue stream changes from export to import then only will you see a change for the better. It's a balancing act I'm glad I don't need to be doing.
Click to expand...

As far as food goes, sadly we import more than we export (we became a net importer in 2007). Expensive food = not good, especially for the low-income classes.
 
Mortymoose said:
That is what I am led to believe..... it will return, but shall take a good few years.....
Click to expand...

I reckon 4-7 yrs.. much like before, i think many are curious how/if Sa will survive the current issues and if Zuma will step down
 
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