Computer perfectly predicts Springbok win over Wales
Principa’s data scientists have compiled statistics from over 6,000 rugby games played by 99 teams since 1995 to predict the results of the 2015 Rugby World Cup – a task which resulted in them perfectly guessing the result of the Springboks vs Wales quarter final game.
The project started with two teams within the company developing algorithms to predict the results of the tournament’s matches, which resulted in Team Nero being given the job of predicting the quarter final games.
“Due to the many human variables in a match – such as injuries, penalties, referee calls, last-minute player decisions and even health – we may not be able to predict the exact scores, but with each match we will be able to provide an increasingly high probability of our predicted outcome,” said Principa.
Nero predicted the Boks to win by 4 points against Wales – which they did – and New Zealand to beat France in their quarter final by 28 points. New Zealand ended up winning by 49 points.
The Ireland vs Argentina game sees the South Americans losing by 8, according to the prediction, and Australia beating Scotland by 24 points.
| Match | Prediction by Nero | Actual Result |
| 1. England vs Fiji | England by 24 | England by 24 |
| 2. Tonga vs Georgia | Tonga by 6 | Georgia by 7 |
| 3. Ireland vs Canada | Ireland by 49 | Ireland by 43 |
| 4. South Africa vs Japan | South Africa by 33 | Japan by 2 |
| 5. France vs Italy | France by 20 | France by 22 |
| 6. Samoa vs USA | Samoa by 14 | Samoa by 9 |
| 7. Wales vs Uruguay | Wales by 55 | Wales by 45 |
| 8. New Zealand vs Argentina | New Zealand by 27 | New Zealand by 10 |
| 9. Scotland vs Japan | Scotland by 13 | Scotland by 35 |
| 10. Australia vs Fiji | Australia by 24 | Australia by 15 |
| 11. France vs Romania | France by 29 | France by 27 |
| 12. New Zealand vs Namibia | New Zealand by 63 | New Zealand by 44 |
| 13. Argentina vs Georgia | Argentina by 15 | Argentina by 45 |
| 14. Italy vs Canada | Canada by 15 | Italy by 5 |
| 15. South Africa vs Samoa | South Africa by 25 | South Africa by 40 |
| 16. England vs Wales | Wales by 2 | Wales by 3 |
| 17. Ireland vs Romania | Ireland by 40 | Ireland by 34 |
| 18. Scotland vs USA | Scotland by 18 | Scotland by 23 |
| 19. Australia vs Uruguay | Australia by 56 | Australia by 62 |
| 20. Tonga vs Namibia | Tonga by 24 | Tonga by 14 |
| 21. Wales vs Fiji | Wales by 23 | Wales by 10 |
| 22. France vs Canada | France by 36 | France by 23 |
| 23. New Zealand vs Georgia | New Zealand by 51 | New Zealand by 33 |
| 24. Samoa vs Japan | Samoa by 3 | Japan by 21 |
| 25. South Africa vs Scotland | South Africa by 11 | South Africa by 18 |
| 26. Australia vs England | Australia by 11 | Australia by 20 |
| 27. Argentina vs Tonga | Argentina by 18 | Argentina by 29 |
| 28. Ireland vs Italy | Ireland by 29 | Ireland by 7 |
| 29. Canada vs Romania | Romania by 4 | Romania by 2 |
| 30. Fiji vs Uruguay | Fiji by 35 | Fiji by 32 |
| 31. South Africa vs USA | South Africa by 37 | South Africa by 64 |
| 32. Georgia vs Namibia | Georgia by 17 | Georgia by 1 |
| 33. New Zealand vs Tonga | New Zealand by 46 | New Zealand by 38 |
| 34. Scotland vs Samoa | Scotland by 17 | Scotland by 3 |
| 35. Australia vs Wales | Australia by 7 | Australia by 11 |
| 36. England vs Uruguay | England by 46 | England by 57 |
| 37. Argentina vs Namibia | Argentina by 43 | Argentina 45 |
| 38. Italy vs Romania | Italy by 14 | Italy by 10 |
| 39. Ireland vs France | Ireland by 8 | Ireland by 15 |
| 40. USA vs Japan | Japan by 14 | Japan by 9 |
| Q1 South Africa vs Wales | South Africa by 4 | South Africa by 4 |
| Q2 New Zealand vs France | New Zealand by 28 | New Zealand by 49 |
| Q3 Ireland vs Argentina | Ireland by 8 | Argentina by 23 |
| Q4 Australia vs Scotland | Australia by 24 | Australia by 1 |
Nero’s predictions can be viewed here.
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