The worst ever tech predictions in SA
Over the past few years many local technology and government leaders have made predictions which were short sighted, and in some cases simply stupid. There were also some predictions which were right on the button.
Some of the most prominent predictions revolved around the sustainability of uncapped ADSL, the launch of 3G in South Africa, local loop unbundling and more recently, e-tolling.
The people mentioned in this article are however in good company. Bill Gates, Sir Alan Sugar and even Lord Kelvin failed miserably to predict the future in some instances.
Microsoft founder Bill Gates’ prediction in January 2004 at the World Economic Forum that “Spam would be dead in 24 months” was less than prophetic. Gates even got it wrong about his own company when he said in 1983 that “we will never make a 32-bit operating system.”
Other less-than-prophetic predictions include: IBM chairman Thomas Watson’s 1943 comment that “there is a world market for maybe five computers”; Lord Kelvin’s 1897 prediction that “radio has no future”; and Sir Alan Sugar’s 2005 prediction that “next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.”
Here are some of the prominent South African predictions which made headlines. For good measure we will start with a prediction from former MWEB CEO Rudi Jansen that did indeed turned out to be prophetic.
Rudi Jansen - MWEB CEO
In October 2010 former MWEB CEO Rudi Jansen said that the excitement and uptake of its uncapped ADSL products showed the massive pent-up demand of uncapped services, and that anyone who thinks that one can go back to a ‘capped world’ is completely misguided. “You can never go back. You can never offer an inferior service,” said Jansen.
At a time when many people questioned the sustainability of uncapped broadband solutions, Jansen’s words were prophetic. Uncapped ADSL is now commonplace with all the major Internet Service Providers (ISPs) offering uncapped services.
Justin Spratt
Former Internet Solutions executive Justin Spratt wrote in April 2010 that “there are technical reasons why ‘uncapped’ isn’t what most think it is. Overseas experience tells us that uncapped products are not the future … The better solution is higher capped products that provide excellent user experiences.”
A few years on and uncapped ADSL is stronger than ever – even Internet Solutions has strengthened their uncapped ADSL product range. Jansen 1, Spratt 0.
In April 2010 Neotel said that it does not believe that the current price war is sustainable by its participants who are all low-margin resellers of Telkom’s ADSL services. “There is likely to be significant consolidation or even failure of some players if Telkom continues to capture most of the margin on these services,” Neotel said.
Uncapped ADSL ISP prices continued to drop, and after Telkom’s IPConnect price cuts this trend simply accelerated. Neotel themselves had to cut their prices to remain competitive.
In April 2011 Brian Armstrong, Senior Managing Executive for Enterprise Markets at Telkom, said that Telkom has been investigating the feasibility of an uncapped ADSL solution, but early indications are that businesses should not expect an uncapped ADSL solution from them any time soon. Armstrong added that only 3% of their current 9GB ADSL subscribers exceed their cap, which tells them that the current account sizes are adequate for most of their subscribers.
Only a few months later (30 September 2011) Telkom launched uncapped ADSL services at competitive prices. Telkom said that thanks to cheaper bandwidth and better network management tools, uncapped ADSL services were sustainable and profitable.
Siphiwe Nyanda
In a press statement issued on 15 July 2010, Communications Minister Siphiwe Nyanda dismissed as “false, spurious and malicious” allegations that he was about to suspend the Director-General in his Department, Mamodupi Mohlala.
Either Nyanda had no clue what was going on in his department or it was the worst attempt at spin ever. His statement came only days before another statement from the ministry issued on 23 July stating that: “In the interests of the Department, the staff and the government, the Minister has come to the conclusion that it would be best to release Ms Mohlala from her position as Director General with effect from 23 July 2010.”
Tshilidzi Marwala
Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) Committee chairman Tshilidzi Marwala said in mid-2007 that the LLU process will be completed in 2011. Marwala said that he believed that “by the end of 2007 all the mechanisms will be in place for Telkom to open up the local loop to rivals” and that he expected Telkom to start giving rivals access to its copper infrastructure by January 2008.
Marwala clearly was not well versed when it comes to the local telecommunications environment and dealing with ICASA and Telkom. Five years after Marwala made his less-than-prophetic predictions, the only real development was that Telkom dropped the price of their wholesale ADSL service by 30%.
Jeffrey Hedberg
Former Cell C CEO Jeffrey Hedberg said in early 2008 that “3G is hype and we won’t fall prey to hype,” arguing that there is no business case for 3G.
Mobile broadband is extremely important for any mobile operator, and Hedberg’s decision definitely had a negative impact on Cell C’s ability to compete against Vodacom and MTN. Less than two years after Hedberg’s comments, Cell C invested billions into a 3G network to stay competitive.
Exactmobile’s Gavin Penkin also questioned Vodacom’s 3G network rollout in 2004, saying that “For the most part, corporates are not using GPRS, so why would they use 3G? … The market is 18 months away from being ready to use 3G services and, until then, launching a 3G network would just be a waste of money.”
Vodacom’s early launch of 3G gave it a particularly strong position in the corporate data market, a lead which their competitors are still battling to narrow.
Jimmy Manyi
Cabinet spokesman and GCIS chief Jimmy Manyi said in February that Gauteng toll fees are set to become a fact of life. “This is not just a bad dream; it’s a reality, it’s going to happen.” With effect from April 30, he said the new toll fees will kick in.
It is now mid-May, and Gauteng motorists are happily using the highways without paying toll fees. SANRAL has been interdicted and restrained from levying and collecting tolls, the High Court in Pretoria ruled on Saturday 28 April.
The Department of Communications (DoC) missed so many deadlines that it is challenging to know where to start. Here are two prominent deadlines from the DoC which were missed (by a country mile).
Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri
On 22 May 2001 the late Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri said that the licensing of the second national operator (SNO) to compete with Telkom will be finalised in the first half of 2002.
The SNO (now known as Neotel) was eventually licensed on 9 December 2005, nearly four years behind schedule.
Sentech is on schedule to meet government’s commitment by providing about 80% Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT) coverage by 2010 FIFA Soccer World Cup. Further, Sentech intends to launch at least one high definition television (HDTV) satellite channel, in time for the 2010 Soccer World Cup.
Let’s be short here – it did not happen. Not even close!
Do you know of any other poor predictions? Post them using the forum or comment below.
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