What E-Tolling should have cost South Africans...

Bundu said:

did you see the OUTA fuel levy calculation? IIRC they said 10c/ltr country wide would have done the job

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I disagree with OUTA's figures on a few points (I actually think the figure is less):

1 - it was a cash flow issue. Government didn't have the cash on hand to make payments. They'd have had to have a lot of the cash on hand from the beginning.

2 - if we take this into account and split it over 6 years of construction (edit: it's 7 years if we factor in the additional year, which you will see later on), we can spread the payments over that term to figure out an average required increase.

3 - construction prices were inflated. But let's leave them out of the construction costs and leave the figure at R17,9bn.

Using these figures, and using a figure of 25bn litres of petrol and diesel consumed (an average between 2007 and 2013), I calculate that we required a single increase to the fuel levy of 10c per litre, and we'd have paid for the entire project by the time construction had been completed, and the 10c levy could have been removed.

The economy at the time could sustain a 10c increase. Just work it out for yourself. 10c multipled by 25bn multipled by 7.

[-]OUTA included the interest component of the debt in their calculations IMO (their calculations equate to a R30bn repayment), which wouldn't have been necessary.[/-] EDIT: OUTA's figures correlate with my calculations, although when you remove the price-fixing, it should have been less.

We could have actually funded this entirely from the fuel levy without going to the bond market at all, had they increased the fuel levy one year before construction began and negotiated a decent remuneration model with the construction companies. All that was required here was good leadership. We'd have saved ourselves R12bn in doing so, and in turn, saved 10c from every litre.

And let's not forget that this excludes the inflated cost that government should have managed. If we assume the prices were inflated by just 20%, the once-off required fuel levy decreases to just 8c per litre, is in place for 7 years, and is then removed.

We can factor in some admin costs there if need be, but it is negligible...

What's the financial impact to South Africans?

The total impact to road users would have been around R1627 over 7 years, per vehicle, had this method been adopted. That is it! R230 per annum. That's R19,37 per month, per vehicle, for 7 years, and then the charge would have been eliminated. It's just 64c per day

If only Gauteng road users were charged, then the cost would have been a total impact of around R4700 over the course of 7 years, which is R672 per annum, or just R56 per month, per vehicle had someone with brains been in charge, or had palms not been greased...

That is it! That is all that this should have cost...

To put this into context somewhat, we should be paying just 4.3% of the maximum E-Tag rate per month. We're in fact paying a 2322% premium for resurfacing of our roads. And that premium is about to get far worse as phase 2 and 3 kick in.

And guess what? Phase 2 has kicked in already without you knowing it - http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthr...bailed-out-again-And-they-re-starting-phase-2

thanks DJ!

I just hope people spend some time looking and absorbing these figures and then decide whether the continued support of this abuse of tax in a country, where there is so much poverty, can be allowed

we can say no.... specifically in this instance!

According to people I have spoken to, I got the following stats:
- The 2012 budget for provincial road infrastructure maintenance was R20bn (note, this excludes treasury contribution to Sanral or any funding for etoll is outside of this)
- In 2012 R5bn was generated in motor licensing fees
- In 2012 R28bn was generated from fuel levy (< this figure puzzles me, as the fuel levy is R2/l and South Africa consumes according to the petrol industry over 20bn litres of fuel - some big discrepancy here)

I think the motor- & transport industry should seek some clarity from government with regards to allocation of funds. Surely motor licensing fees and fuel levy should go towards it's originating purpose - i.e. road maintenance, road accident fund, contribution to traffic control etc.

It is clear that Sanral will struggle with the investor road show, as I think Moody's will downgrade them before that (around end of March/beginning of April). The 5bn Rand Sanral raised in September will run out by the end of this month, and they will require another funding run to continue going - so it's all dire for them. Such a pity that so much tax money was wasted on this and almost twice as much is now needed to repay unnecessary debt.

Must be easier to move etoll money around than from fuel levy, gotta keep the rich pigs rich

Reading things like this first thing in the morning makes me sick. I cannot believe that our leaders, who are people just like you and me, could be so careless, reckless, incompetent and down right foolish to have gone ahead with this. Do you honestly want to tell me that they do not give a flying ****it about what is happening to the people of this country or is it just a matter of them being complete bloody mindless idiots who have the reasoning skills of a 5 year old?

Sorry but I just cannot believe that people can be so stupid. Guess Einstein was 100% correct in his assumptions about human stupidity.

Well done ANC, you have gone from a liberation movement and the freeing of your people right to enslaving them again to foreign powers.

MKFrost said:

Reading things like this first thing in the morning makes me sick. I cannot believe that our leaders, who are people just like you and me, could be so careless, reckless, incompetent and down right foolish to have gone ahead with this. Do you honestly want to tell me that they do not give a flying ****it about what is happening to the people of this country or is it just a matter of them being complete bloody mindless idiots who have the reasoning skills of a 5 year old?

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It's been proven that the culture of greed and entitlement is dominating our govt. Fueled (ahem) by a catastrophic lack of education, we have the makings of a crumbling economy. Without some firm, insightful leaders, I don't see how this mess can be turned around. Perhaps I'm just similarly depressed by the never-ending increases in the cost of living, some of which are just so unnecessary, being caused simply by greed and short-sightedness. The debacle around freeway improvements seems insane considering the dire need for better education and basic services.

MKFrost said:

... them being complete bloody mindless idiots who have the reasoning skills of a 5 year old?

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That ^

#ProudlyBroughtByANC

Thanks DJ.

What I don't get is that our Treasury chaps are not uneducated - so how in the seven hells did they allow this bloated mess to develop?

The numbers are straightforward - you do not need any complex math to work it out.

Really a poor show - Pravin should have had oversight of this - shameful all round

The subsequent SANRALigans are the result of painting themselves into a corner.

AfricanTech said:

Thanks DJ.

What I don't get is that our Treasury chaps are not uneducated - so how in the seven hells did they allow this bloated mess to develop?

The numbers are straightforward - you do not need any complex math to work it out.

Really a poor show - Pravin should have had oversight of this - shameful all round

The subsequent SANRALigans are the result of painting themselves into a corner.

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It starts with Zuma.

Corrupt person of very little integrity steals presidency and calls all the shots.
Surrounds himself with loyal yes-men instead of the best people for the job.
The rest cannot afford to speak up/take a stand on anything lest they get axed.

That's why the ANC publicly endorse such an obvious bad choice for president.
That's why they build him Nkandla and covered for him afterwards.
That's why .. chaos.

AfricanTech said:

Thanks DJ.

What I don't get is that our Treasury chaps are not uneducated - so how in the seven hells did they allow this bloated mess to develop?

The numbers are straightforward - you do not need any complex math to work it out.

Really a poor show - Pravin should have had oversight of this - shameful all round

The subsequent SANRALigans are the result of painting themselves into a corner.

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They are smart, and on that basis it seems obvious that government wanted gantries, come hell or high water, irrespective of the consequences or problems associated with it. It was gantries or nothing with them...

Treasury were set up to be thrown under the bus on this one - and many others.

Greed. Plain and simple.

Goose that lays the golden egg is on its way to the mortuary.

Paul Hjul said:

Treasury were set up to be thrown under the bus on this one - and many others.

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Treasury quite happily went along to court to argue why it was a good thing. But when you have an idiot as the finance minister what do you expect?

DJ... said:

They are smart, and on that basis it seems obvious that government wanted gantries, come hell or high water, irrespective of the consequences or problems associated with it. It was gantries or nothing with them...

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Not smart, just bright enough to realise which side of the bread the butter goes on. Toll roads and gantries are a political decision, not an economic one.

As I posted earlier.....

If you look carefully at our country you will notice what is happening. Government collects all our taxes and distribute this among all the departments. They are however running an ever increasing deficit i.e. living way above their means. An easy way out of this is to finance the expenditure by other means.

Sanral is just one prime example. Essentially all road maintenance will in future come from tolls [national rollout of etolls]. Government no longer have to allocate all the funds destined for maintenance to Sanral as Sanral can now look after themselves so more funds remain in the central government.

Next one to come is the National healthcare. This will essentially result in the taxpayer taking over the national healthcare expenditure from the government in another form of tax. Look at all the Sita's etc.. which are also already being funded through a tax on payrolls.

So essentially what is happening is that you will pay your odd 40% to central government in taxes plus another 20 to 40% odd in other direct taxes to keep the rest of government humming i.e. gravy train going.

They could have just come out and say that income tax is going up say 20% to achieve the same but this would have met some serious resistance so in this way you are hit from several fronts and in such a way that most do not even realise they are milked dry and hardly anybody fight back.

I know a big generalization but just my opinion of where we are heading.

MKFrost said:

As I posted earlier.....

If you look carefully at our country you will notice what is happening. Government collects all our taxes and distribute this among all the departments. They are however running an ever increasing deficit i.e. living way above their means. An easy way out of this is to finance the expenditure by other means.

Sanral is just one prime example. Essentially all road maintenance will in future come from tolls [national rollout of etolls]. Government no longer have to allocate all the funds destined for maintenance to Sanral as Sanral can now look after themselves so more funds remain in the central government.

Next one to come is the National healthcare. This will essentially result in the taxpayer taking over the national healthcare expenditure from the government in another form of tax. Look at all the Sita's etc.. which are also already being funded through a tax on payrolls.

So essentially what is happening is that you will pay your odd 40% to central government in taxes plus another 20 to 40% odd in other direct taxes to keep the rest of government humming i.e. gravy train going.

They could have just come out and say that income tax is going up say 20% to achieve the same but this would have met some serious resistance so in this way you are hit from several fronts and in such a way that most do not even realise they are milked dry and hardly anybody fight back.

I know a big generalization but just my opinion of where we are heading.

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Sort of - but the Scumral set up isn't just another means to collect tax - it provides money to those in the 'value' chain for no return.

If one could assume that tax collection and expenditure was efficient you could understand R1 of tax provides R1 of health care (say). Right now we have R1 of tollroad tax providing about 2c of road.

Sinbad said:

View attachment 98225

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True. And as I show, just a 10c per litre, once off increase, for just 7 years would have seen the cost of the entire cost of construction paid for by the time all construction was completed, without the need for gantries whatsoever...

Albereth said:

Treasury quite happily went along to court to argue why it was a good thing. But when you have an idiot as the finance minister what do you expect?

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treasury's position - and problem - is a bit more complicated than that. They really do have the problem of having to give effect to cabinet decisions and a lot of tension exists over treasury acting as a break on great acts of idiocy

Treasury's argument while unfortunate in this case - and I submit that the Constitutional Court's approach to the matter was deeply misguided and ill-conceived within our democratic jurisprudence - has an element of importance to broader questions of government policy. The reality is that it is a critical fault in our Constitution that there has developed a rational purpose doctrine that allows policy to be read into hollow ordinance to salvage same ordinance whilst the Constitutional Court has no jurisdiction to strike down unconstitutional policy. This is a problem that exists because we have jettisoned both an "English" approach to administrative law and have not adopted Kelsen with any real sincerity.

Paul Hjul said:

treasury's position - and problem - is a bit more complicated than that. They really do have the problem of having to give effect to cabinet decisions and a lot of tension exists over treasury acting as a break on great acts of idiocy

Treasury's argument while unfortunate in this case - and I submit that the Constitutional Court's approach to the matter was deeply misguided and ill-conceived within our democratic jurisprudence - has an element of importance to broader questions of government policy. The reality is that it is a critical fault in our Constitution that there has developed a rational purpose doctrine that allows policy to be read into hollow ordinance to salvage same ordinance whilst the Constitutional Court has no jurisdiction to strike down unconstitutional policy. This is a problem that exists because we have jettisoned both an "English" approach to administrative law and have not adopted Kelsen with any real sincerity.

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Sure. But you still have an idiot as the boss at treasury. Oh. And he's also a cabinet member.