2014 Matric pass rate 75.8%

OrbitalDawn said:
Uh, yeah. That's kind of it, you want to know what happened that so many fell out before finishing matric - which is an important milestone. It's natural that a certain amount would fall out, but it's bloody high at the moment, which is a problem.

If you have 1000 kids going to school and 60% don't finish matric, you can still look only at the pass rate of the 400 that remained, but it's more important to know why the hell 600 didn't finish.
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The assumption here is that all of the 60% actually dropped out and that's a very big assumption.
 
JungleBoy said:
To come to such a conclusion would require a thorough breakdown of what exactly happened to the missing pupils that started grade 1. As I have noted above, there are so many reasons why those pupils are not in matric. Some of the reasons like death, relocation to private schools, etc have nothing to do with the success rate of the scholing system.

All of that would just add a layer of complexity and yet very little value can be derived from such an exercise.
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???
 
JungleBoy said:
The assumption here is that all of the 60% actually dropped out and that's a very big assumption.
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Compared to your assertion that 60 percent died or went to private school?
 
JungleBoy said:
The assumption here is that all of the 60% actually dropped out and that's a very big assumption.
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True matric pass rate less than 45%: Afriforum

Of the 1,187,961 children in Grade One in 2003, only 689,625 (58 percent) made it to matric last year, the civil rights group’s deputy CEO Alana Bailey said, citing figures from the basic education department and Umalusi.
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...

And anyway, I was making an analogy, not citing specific numbers, to illustrate a point. Which you've yet to address...
 
Sinbad said:
Quote statistics showing that more kids matriculated from ieb schools than enrolled in ieb schools from grade 1 or gtfo with your speculation.

You know very well that the reality is that most kids just do not complete school. Either because they don't care, their parents don't care, or the government does not care.
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Actually this all speculation without any emperical studies done. Curro Holdings for example has been opening schools in almost all the mushrooming security estates. Where exactly are they getting their enrolment from? Mind you when they open a school it's usually all grades opened on the same year.
 
Sinbad said:
Compared to your assertion that 60 percent died or went to private school?
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I never asserted that. All I said was that there are just too many variables for this to be confined to just one possibility.
 
JungleBoy said:
So did this give a breakdown of what happened to the rest? If not then it proves exactly my point.
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What do you think happened to the 42% of students that dropped out? They all died or left the country?

It doesn't matter if they moved to a private school, it would still be in the numbers. It seems the reasons include lack of funds, dysfunctional schools, not enough qualified teachers, lack of support structures at home etc.

http://www.enca.com/media/video/high-dropout-rate-sas-school-system

Nic Spaull, education researcher at Stellenbosch says the vast majority of these fall out in Gr.10/11 and 12, just before the exams.

He puts it another way: 100 students started grade one, only 48 reached matric, 36 passed, and 14 qualify to go to universtity...

You're saying we should only focus on the 36, not on the 52 that didn't even get there...
 
OrbitalDawn said:
You're saying we should only focus on the 36, not on the 52 that didn't even get there...
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Nope. You completely misunderstood me. All I'm saying is that let's break down further the 52 that didn't get there. Just assuming that they have all dropped out of the schooling system is nonsense and amounts to lazy research work.

If 100 pupils started grade 1 then how many of that 52 that didn't make it to NSC grade 12 have enrolled for the IEB, Cambridge grade 12 exams, how many are still in grade 9,10,11, how many have dropped out, died etc?
 
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wow 75% ? seems a bit high to me. Sure they didnt get it backwards. Like 75% failed ? :)
 
JungleBoy said:
Nope. You completely misunderstood me. All I'm saying is that let's break down further the 52 that didn't get there. Just assuming that they have all dropped out of the schooling system is nonsense and amounts to lazy research work.
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Why is it nonsense? If they didn't make it to the end then they did drop out... :wtf:

I've given the reasons.
 
JungleBoy said:
Nope. You completely misunderstood me. All I'm saying is that let's break down further the 52 that didn't get there. Just assuming that they have all dropped out of the schooling system is nonsense and amounts to lazy research work.

If 100 pupils started grade 1 then how many of that 52 that didn't make it to NSC grade 12 have enrolled for the IEB, Cambridge grade 12 exams, how many are still in grade 9,10,11, how many have dropped out, died etc?
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Don't forget then to include all the people who repeated years and finished this year and are thus inflating the school leaver numbers (as they didn't start 12 years ago)
 
JungleBoy said:
Nope. You completely misunderstood me. All I'm saying is that let's break down further the 52 that didn't get there. Just assuming that they have all dropped out of the schooling system is nonsense and amounts to lazy research work.

If 100 pupils started grade 1 then how many of that 52 that didn't make it to NSC grade 12 have enrolled for the IEB, Cambridge grade 12 exams, how many are still in grade 9,10,11, how many have dropped out, died etc?
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The figures are from Umalusi, and the IEB, Cambridge etc. still fall under them. They also have the NSC. So those figures include that. It doesn't matter if the learners moved from public school to IEB school.

And they all dropped out, that's the point. As in, they started school, but didn't finish.
 
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