Americans Imagine a World without Putin

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Skeptik

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Americans Imagine a World without Putin
// The future of Russia studied

A report called “Alternative Futures for Russia” will be issued in Washington today by the authoritative nonprofit Center for Strategic and International Studies. Besides the usual criticism of democracy in Russia, some parts of the report are downright fantastic. One of the alternative futures the report contains is a scenario built around the possible assassination of Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 7, 2008, in Moscow. Kommersant Washington correspondent Dmitry Sidorov has read the report.
The authors of the 59-page report are director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia program Andrew Kuchins, former senior director for Russian affairs at the National Security Council Thomas Graham, Assistant Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University Henry Hale, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Anders Aslund and others. On the report’s cover are five photographs: Russian President Vladimir Putin with the G8 leaders, Putin with the Chinese President Hu Jintao, the recent arrest of Other Russia leader Garri Kasparov, snow-covered oil wells and children in a computer class.

Although the scenarios for Russian development suggested by the American experts differ noticeably from each other in accordance with their personal points of view, they hold unanimous positions on a number of principle points. The authors are certain that Russia will not become a mature democracy in the next ten years. They do not consider the current political stability durable. One reason for that is that the political course of the country depends too heavily on a single figure, rather than on institutions of authority. In addition, as Aslund explains, the tension between the centralized political system and the market economy based on private enterprise will not abate. Aslund identifies “aggressive rationalization” as one of the main problems in the Russian economy, which, he says, has a negative effect on corporate management and economic effectiveness.

The most speculative part of the research is a discussion of the future of Russian politics and its leader. Graham thinks Putin will hand over power smoothly to the successor he chooses and will begin to fade from the political scene as that successor consolidates his position. Eight years later, according to Graham’s scenario, a new successor will calmly take over.

Kuchins has an entirely different vision. He imagines that “Russia and the world were stunned by the assassination of Vladimir Putin as he walked out of a midnight mass at the Christ the Savior Cathedral in Moscow on January 7, 2008 [Russian Orthodox Christmas] .” Kuchins continues that killer would not be caught and Russia would be thrown into immediate chaos. The stock market would collapse, mass strikes and demonstration would begin and, on January 20, a state of emergency will be declared. “What looked to be a fairly smooth transition to longtime Putin colleague Sergei Naryshkin taking over as president with Dmitri Medvedev stepping into
the prime minister position was disrupted by the killing of Putin,” Kuchins summarizes his scenario, and the enforcement bloc in the Kremlin will gain power, that is, Igor Sechin, Sergey Ivanov and Nikolay Patrushev. By naming Naryshkin, not Medvedev, Putin’s successor, Kuchins has already erred by that much.

As it continues, Kuchin’s scenario starts to sound more and more like a suspense novel. After the imposition of the state of emergency, he posits, head of Russian Railways Vladimir Yakunin would become president and order the shooting of striking oil worker in Surgut. St. Petersburg Governor Valentina Matvienko and Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov would be sentenced to death for the embezzlement of billions of dollars. Nationalism will rise significantly along the way. But, after a series political and economic shakeups, there is a happy ending in 2016, with Boris Nemtsov becoming president with the help and funding of the again-free Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Kuchins, the former head of the Carnegie Fund in Moscow, is one of the best-informed and authoritative Kremlinologists in the United States. He participates in practically all major international conferences on Russia. Before the July 2006 G8 summit in St. Petersburg, Kuchins sent a personal letter to Putin in which he explained to him how to observe democratic principles and assured him that America does not need a weak Russia, as the Kremlin believes. In spite of his continuing criticism of “sovereign democracy,” Kuchins is in the small circle of Western experts who meet annually with Putin at sessions of the so-called Valdai Club. At this year’s meeting, which took place in the president’s Sochi residence, Kuchins asked whether the “Putin plan” wasn’t for United Russia to win in the parliamentary elections and become the ruling party for decades to come.
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http://www.kommersant.com/p835684/r_527/futurology/
I understand now why some see the Americans as thick!
 
They just refuse to see anything going on in the world from anyone else's perspective. Despite being told about it, they just ignore the comments and criticism and do even more damage! Then they whine about not being popular and they can't understand why ...

That fits the definition of "thick".
 
Your reasons can go for every other country. Look at Mbeki wanting a permanent seat at the Security Council. Look at Putin helping Iran acquire
nuclear technology while at the same time preventing Poland and Czech
Republic from installing US ABMs. The Russians threw such a fit when the former Eastern Bloc was admitted to NATO - wth cares what Russia thinks? To hell with them. Yes I'm anti-Russian,
I have Russian friends and I don't mind Russian people but successive Russian governments have always been oppressive and belligerent towards their neighbours.
What about Red China supporting dictatorships in places like Sudan and North Korea. They all have their
BS agendas. None of these countries sees the world from anothers'
perspective. Your conclusion should be that everyone is THICK.
 
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PeterCH said:
Your reasons can go for every other country. Look at Mbeki wanting a permanent seat at the Security Council. Look at Putin helping Iran acquire
nuclear technology while at the same time preventing Poland and Czech
Republic from installing US ABMs. The Russians threw such a fit when the former Eastern Bloc was admitted to NATO - wth cares what Russia thinks? To hell with them. Yes I'm anti-Russian,
I have Russian friends and I don't mind Russian people but successive Russian governments have always been oppressive and belligerent towards their neighbours.
What about Red China supporting dictatorships in places like Sudan and North Korea. They all have their
BS agendas. None of these countries sees the world from anothers'
perspective. Your conclusion should be that everyone is THICK.
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Iran claims only to want nuclear power. Czech and Poland already have that.
You mention a lot of other countries, but none of them have as much power & influence as the USA. I don't recall Russia recently trying to change a country's political structure. They just deal with everybody as they find them. Besides, why does the US do so much business with a Communist, nuclear armed, militaristic country like China, yet tries to boss democratic Russia?? It's all very odd!
 
“What looked to be a fairly smooth transition to longtime Putin colleague Sergei Naryshkin taking over as president with Dmitri Medvedev stepping into
the prime minister position was disrupted by the killing of Putin,” Kuchins summarizes his scenario, and the enforcement bloc in the Kremlin will gain power, that is, Igor Sechin, Sergey Ivanov and Nikolay Patrushev. By naming Naryshkin, not Medvedev, Putin’s successor, Kuchins has already erred by that much.
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Isn't Medvedev the presidential candidate now anyway?

Skeptik said:
Iran claims only to want nuclear power. Czech and Poland already have that.
You mention a lot of other countries, but none of them have as much power & influence as the USA. I don't recall Russia recently trying to change a country's political structure. They just deal with everybody as they find them. Besides, why does the US do so much business with a Communist, nuclear armed, militaristic country like China, yet tries to boss democratic Russia?? It's all very odd!
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Russia's tried to influence the Georgian and Ukrainian political systems at least and I'm sure probably other neighbours too. I wouldn't call Russia very democratic anyway.
 
Syndyre said:
Isn't Medvedev the presidential candidate now anyway?


Russia's tried to influence the Georgian and Ukrainian political systems at least and I'm sure probably other neighbours too. I wouldn't call Russia very democratic anyway.
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Medvedev ("the Bear") is the chosen candidate for the most popular party, so he will most likely get in.

I'm sure Russia would prefer to deal with certain people, but they don't often try to change the political structure. I can't find any evidence of interference in Georgia or the Ukraine. Perhaps you read this in an American newspaper? I'm sure if they actually wanted to, they would have ousted the Georgian leader long ago because he is not aligned to Russia. (Georgia is not very democratic, but they are freindly with the USA and a candidate for NATO - another case in point)

Putin's Russia is the most democratic it has ever been!
 
Putin will be Prime Minister, Medvedev will be his puppet... and then Putin will be president again. Its going to be a blast.
 
Skeptik said:
Medvedev ("the Bear") is the chosen candidate for the most popular party, so he will most likely get in.

I'm sure Russia would prefer to deal with certain people, but they don't often try to change the political structure. I can't find any evidence of interference in Georgia or the Ukraine. Perhaps you read this in an American newspaper? I'm sure if they actually wanted to, they would have ousted the Georgian leader long ago because he is not aligned to Russia. (Georgia is not very democratic, but they are freindly with the USA and a candidate for NATO - another case in point)

Putin's Russia is the most democratic it has ever been!
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He's pretty much guaranteed to get in I think. There is some evidence, its not absolutely conclusive but it wouldn't surprise me:

Sunday's early-winter cut in gas supplies to Ukraine came as an unsettling reminder that promises of energy exports are not Russia's only method of using oil and gas to further its foreign policy goals - it can also turn off the valve of energy exports.

The election of Viktor A. Yushchenko as Ukraine's president last winter pulled the former Soviet country from Russia's sphere of influence. A gas shortage this winter could discredit him and weaken his party, with parliamentary elections coming up in March.

Tellingly, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was personally involved in the negotiations. It was he, rather than company officials, who made the final offer of a grace period on Saturday.
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TBILISI, November 7 (RIA Novosti) - Georgia's president said in a TV address to the nation Wednesday that Russia's special services were behind recent events in Tbilisi.

"Our special services report an alternative [Georgian] government has been formed in Russia," Mikheil Saakashvili said in his address.

"Monitoring conducted by our special services showed funds and instructions had been issued," the president said, adding that a foreign spy had been arrested amid mass anti-presidential protests, and that the suspect would be expelled.
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Its probably the most democratic its ever been but that doesn't mean its democratic, there's not much competition with the Czars and the communists!

Medvedev does seem like a better candidate than Ivanov, who seemed to be the other front runner.
 
Syndyre said:
Its probably the most democratic its ever been but that doesn't mean its democratic, there's not much competition with the Czars and the communists!
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LOL yeah stiff competition for Putin there

:D
 
Skeptik said:
Putin's party competed for Duma seats with 15 other parties. How many parties were there in SA. Is this country democratic comrade?
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It doesn't matter how many other parties there were it matters how the election was administered. This country has democratic elections but because there's no chance of anyone else winning its a de facto one party state.
 
Syndyre said:
It doesn't matter how many other parties there were it matters how the election was administered. This country has democratic elections but because there's no chance of anyone else winning its a de facto one party state.
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There was no need to fudge the elections because Putin's party is very popular anyway.

And no, it isn't a one-party state because Russia is run through proportional representation. Those parties with some support all end up in the Duma.
 
Skeptik said:
There was no need to fudge the elections because Putin's party is very popular anyway.

And no, it isn't a one-party state because Russia is run through proportional representation. Those parties with some support all end up in the Duma.
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True but there was some evidence of civil servants being expected to vote for the ruling party etc. IIRC. I was referring to SA being a de facto one party state. ;)
 
w1z4rd said:
Well according to independent election observers he did.
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The OSCE don't appear to be independent. Rather representing the interests of the bankers - US and the EU. Much of this criticism comes after various spats with Russia over missiles pointing at them & serious spy scandals, so you have to see it in context.
 
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