Analysing Eskom's claims about EAF

Jan

Jan

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Eskom's real saviour — And it is not government

The massive increase in PV solar adoption among South African households and businesses is the primary reason the country is experiencing its longest load-shedding break in over two years.

That is not only according to feedback from a respected energy expert but also the Eskom official in charge of ensuring the stability of the grid.
 
And currently a large chunk of PV power is wasted because of lack of practical feed-in options. Even CoCT has the ridiculous AMI cost.

I know that I am generating less than 50% of what I can during summer. And frankly if I got paid to feed in it might be practical to throw more panels on my roof - that is the cheap part. The expensive inverter etc already taken care of.
 
I thought the peak-periods were from 18:00-23:00, when there is no sun?
 
LCBXX said:
I thought the peak-periods were from 18:00-23:00, when there is no sun?
Click to expand...
Actually 4pm to 9pm and then 5am to 9am. By the time peaks are kicking in businesses and malls are switching back to the grid, so at peak we may see a 2GW loss in demand, but that doesn't take into account what we've lost.
 
LCBXX said:
I thought the peak-periods were from 18:00-23:00, when there is no sun?
Click to expand...
Uh. You very obviously haven't read the article. But I will quote relevant parts:
While the utility still needs to tap into its emergency generation reserves to meet demand during peak periods, the increased solar production has helped ensure it can replenish these power stations’ reserves during the day for dispatching during evening peak periods.

These “peaking” power plants include pumped storage capacity and diesel-powered open-cycle gas turbines, which previously had to be used more frequently during the day, resulting in insufficient capacity by peak demand.

Many solar users also have backup batteries with sufficient capacity to carry them through the peak period, shifting their bigger demand to later in the evening or early morning hours when overall demand is lower.
Click to expand...
 
Johand said:
Uh. You very obviously haven't read the article. But I will quote relevant parts:
Click to expand...
Can you point on this graph where this "the increased solar production has helped ensure it can replenish these power stations' reserves during the day" is?
1714632805346.png

Station build-up for the last 7 days - Eskom Data Portal

This shows how resources were used to build-up the demand over the past 7 days, and it includes both generation and demand side resources that Eskom has contracts with.
www.eskom.co.za www.eskom.co.za
 
wingnut771 said:
Can you point on this graph where this "the increased solar production has helped ensure it can replenish these power stations' reserves during the day" is?
View attachment 1701951

Station build-up for the last 7 days - Eskom Data Portal

This shows how resources were used to build-up the demand over the past 7 days, and it includes both generation and demand side resources that Eskom has contracts with.
www.eskom.co.za www.eskom.co.za
Click to expand...
Look at Solar PV in green, pumped water SCO and pumped water generation.
 
wingnut771 said:
Can you point on this graph where this "the increased solar production has helped ensure it can replenish these power stations' reserves during the day" is?
View attachment 1701951

Station build-up for the last 7 days - Eskom Data Portal

This shows how resources were used to build-up the demand over the past 7 days, and it includes both generation and demand side resources that Eskom has contracts with.
www.eskom.co.za www.eskom.co.za
Click to expand...

The problem is that the stacked chart cannot show pumping (since it needs to be shown as negative), so you have to look at the underlying data instead (manually graphed below: CSP and PV solar are stacked, line charts are not). Blue arrows indicate daytime pumping. Orange arrows indicate pumping while CSP is still providing power, but this actually due to reduced demand. The actual reason, however, seems to be that it was windy over this period (and obviously solar is boosting daytime supply/reducing demand).

Screen Shot 2024-05-02 at 09.38.29.png

For the most part, their other chart shows pumping more clearly (solid lines indicate dam levels -- note this is a different timespan from the above)
Screen Shot 2024-05-02 at 09.01.10.png
 
G.A.S said:
The problem is that the stacked chart cannot show pumping (since it needs to be shown as negative), so you have to look at the underlying data instead (manually graphed below: CSP and PV solar are stacked, line charts are not). Blue arrows indicate daytime pumping. Orange arrows indicate pumping while CSP is still providing power, but this actually due to reduced demand. The actual reason, however, seems to be that it was windy over this period (and obviously solar is boosting daytime supply/reducing demand).

View attachment 1701983

For the most part, their other chart shows pumping more clearly (solid lines indicate dam levels -- note this is a different timespan from the above)
View attachment 1701963
Click to expand...
You’re looking at the wrong graph, look at the one I posted.
 
wingnut771 said:
You’re looking at the wrong graph, look at the one I posted.
Click to expand...
I did, my first graph is based on the same data -- use the download data file option.

As mentioned, their own stacked bar chart cannot show pumping as the data is negative. But it is in the underlying data.
 
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Nothing is as counter productive as the government providing no incentives (the stingy one ended on 28 Feb 2024) AND charging VAT on solar panels, inverters and batteries.

Given the electricity crisis which is now two fold— a constrained Eskom supply and very expensive unit costs —solar panels, inverters and batteries should be zero VAT rated.

At a stroke prices will be cut by 15%, enabling more people to install these rooftop solar which is much cheaper per kilo Watt hour than Eskom/municipal tariffs.

The government will get the amount lost, and more, via increased economic activity due to less business closures and/or job losses.
 
G.A.S said:
I did, my first graph is based on the same data -- use the download data file option.

As mentioned, their own stacked bar chart cannot show pumping as the data is negative. But it is in the underlying data.
Click to expand...
Here you go:

11MW at mid day and 2330MW at mid night
1714641840850.png1714641861940.png
 
If the end is in sight what is SPARKLES going to do without a JOB.

LOADSHEDDING will NEVER END.

JOB SAFE.
 
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