ANC set to secure two thirds: Poll

[Arthur]

It's been a while since I did maths at varsity, but last time I checked two thirds = 66.6% not 66.1% as stated in the article.

You must look at constant 1994 percentages. Inflation has taken its toll, so it is closer to 59.87% in 2014.

 

[satanboy]

So the EFF stole votes from the DA....hahaha

 

[satanboy]

You ascribe the f/ups to the party. Their supporters see the f/ups not as the product of the party but as the rogue actions of people who sabotage the party. Cleaning the Corrupti out of the party is an internal party matter and cannot become a pretext for withdrawing support from the ANC. That's how most ANC supporters see it, as far as I can tell.

I am 100% sure the party does not support corruption.

 

[Mortymoose]

Why do you think that the ruling party has never been interrsted in investing in education?

 

[satanboy]

Why do you think that the ruling party has never been interrsted in investing in education?

I think they are, but doing a pretty poor job of it. People always seem to think a political party is only made up of it's worst supporters/officials.

 

[deweyzeph]

Why do you think that the ruling party has never been interrsted in investing in education?

Actually education takes up a massive part of the annual budget of the country. The problem is that most of the money never reaches the most needy schools because of ANC cadres stealing it before it can get there.

 

[LazyLion]

My guess is the ANC will get around 55 - 58%.

 

[Redeemed]

You ascribe the f/ups to the party. Their supporters see the f/ups not as the product of the party but as the rogue actions of people who sabotage the party. Cleaning the Corrupti out of the party is an internal party matter and cannot become a pretext for withdrawing support from the ANC. That's how most ANC supporters see it, as far as I can tell.

I am 100% sure the party does not support corruption.

Sane comments.

 

[Necuno]

ANC set to secure two TURDS: Poll

Zuma?
Malema?

 

[Dubes]

Interesting, I'd love to know the date of this survey as I just shared a link earlier which said this:

The Pulse of the People poll of randomly selected voting-age South Africans (18+), taken by Ipsos in November 2013 reveals that only 53 percent of eligible voters would vote for the ANC. This is 10 points less than in November 2008 (six months before the 2009 election); moreover, 80 percent of the decline in support took place between November 2012 and November 2013. In the Ipsos Government Performance Barometer, a poll of 3,564 adult South Africans, also taken in November 2013, only 46 percent of respondents rate President Jacob Zuma as doing his job well; 50 percent think he is not doing his job well. It is a substantial decrease from 2009, when 77 percent of those surveyed said he was performing well. The latest blow to President Zuma is the Nkandla scandal: the R215 million ($20 million) in public funds that President Zuma used for security upgrades to his private residence in Nkandla. The national government has not fared much better than President Zuma: 47 percent said it was not performing well, down from 70 percent in 2009.

The really interesting part is that it quotes the exact same sample size so I presume it is actually the same survey being referred to or they just happened to use the exact same number of people.... or, as is often the case, people are using the exact same stats to say two totally different things!

http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthr...pect-in-the-2014-South-African-elections-quot

 

[BUDDH4]

Stupid poll is stupid

I had my doubts too but Ipsos were fairly close for the last election plus they were the first to predict the ANC losing control of Gauteng. If this poll is accurate (and not conducted outside an ANC rally) I'm surprised at the EFF results - their rallies have had way larger turn outs than COPE who got twice as much in 2009. Maybe Malema has a higher rent-a-crowd budget?

I'm hoping this is one of Ipsos' missteps because the ANC are going to have a field day if they get two thirds!

 

[Dubes]

I had my doubts too but Ipsos were fairly close for the last election plus they were the first to predict the ANC losing control of Gauteng. If this poll is accurate (and not conducted outside an ANC rally) I'm surprised at the EFF results - their rallies have had way larger turn outs than COPE who got twice as much in 2009. Maybe Malema has a higher rent-a-crowd budget?

I'm hoping this is one of Ipsos' missteps because the ANC are going to have a field day if they get two thirds!

Please refer to this post: http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthr...hirds-Poll?p=12334890&viewfull=1#post12334890

Someone lying.

 

[BUDDH4]

Interesting, I'd love to know the date of this survey as I just shared a link earlier which said this:



The really interesting part is that it quotes the exact same sample size so I presume it is actually the same survey being referred to or they just happened to use the exact same number of people.... or, as is often the case, people are using the exact same stats to say two totally different things!

http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthr...pect-in-the-2014-South-African-elections-quot

I think that poll was conducted last year in November before Madiba's death and also the first poll showing the ANC losing Gauteng. The poll in my link was conducted recently by Ipsos & the Sunday Times - unfortunately I can't access the site without a paid subscription. If someone can maybe they can post that info plus I'd like to know the provincial results.

 

[Dubes]

I think that poll was conducted last year in November before Madiba's death and also the first poll showing the ANC losing Gauteng. The poll in my link was conducted recently by Ipsos & the Sunday Times - unfortunately I can't access the site without a paid subscription. If someone can maybe they can post that info plus I'd like to know the provincial results.

I questioned the date of the survey but can't find evidence thereof. I did find this coincidental though-

Yours:

However, a survey last month by Ipsos found that half of South African adults believe that Zuma and his government are not doing their jobs well. These were the results of face-to-face interviews with 3 564 randomly selected adult South Africans.

Mine:

In the Ipsos Government Performance Barometer, a poll of 3,564 adult South Africans, also taken in November 2013,

Do they always sample the exact same random number? Or was that reference at the end to a previous survey? Which would also call into question dates as they refer to "last month" when it was November 2013.


EDIT: I see your article is a file article too with no date, so possibly not a recent one after all?

 

[Dubes]

Looking at the IPSOS site I am not sure there is a more recent survey:

Ipsos survey: Political party support six months ahead of the election

The ruling party is currently less popular with eligible voters than in November 2008.

http://www.ipsos.co.za/SitePages/Support for political parties.aspx

I really would love to question News24 on that article and question the source.


Here is a discussion of the Gauteng polls:

The ANC in Gauteng has asked its volunteers to intensify their mobilisation campaign in townships to avoid getting less than 50% of the vote in the polls.

This was sparked by its own internal polls, which showed it could obtain at most 45% of electoral support in the country’s economic hub.

This would be a sharp decline from the 64.4% the party won in the 2009 general elections.

http://www.citypress.co.za/politics/ancs-45-poll-panic/

 

[copacetic]

I think they are, but doing a pretty poor job of it. People always seem to think a political party is only made up of it's worst supporters/officials.

I think what happens is that people quite reasonably notice and worry about the bad apples who are able to pull on the reigns of power to benefit themselves at the expense of the country they are charged with running.

I think it's safe to say that the balance of power in the ANC at this time is but a pale moral echo of the organization that played a huge role in bringing about the democracy and freedom we enjoy today.

 

[Albereth]

I had my doubts too but Ipsos were fairly close for the last election plus they were the first to predict the ANC losing control of Gauteng. If this poll is accurate (and not conducted outside an ANC rally) I'm surprised at the EFF results - their rallies have had way larger turn outs than COPE who got twice as much in 2009. Maybe Malema has a higher rent-a-crowd budget?

I'm hoping this is one of Ipsos' missteps because the ANC are going to have a field day if they get two thirds!

So this is how it works. Any speculation on how popular a party is is based on a poll of sorts. Ask around you office and you just conducted a poll.

Now, those who charge money to conduct a poll are doing pretty much the same thing but are asking what is. Rant to be a representative sample. We have huge diversity in this country and the sample that they used would be anything but representative and would end up being just speculation based on those opinions.

Polls would be a better gauge in a more homogenous society. Or you need to increase the sample size to pretty much the electorate. Which is what they're going to do in May.

 

[Stochos]

Did Ipsos get an advance copy of the results from the IEC?

 

[Alan]

I think what happens is that people quite reasonably notice and worry about the bad apples who are able to pull on the reigns of power to benefit themselves at the expense of the country they are charged with running.

I think it's safe to say that the balance of power in the ANC at this time is but a pale moral echo of the organization that played a huge role in bringing about the democracy and freedom we enjoy today.

Like ZanuPF who brought 'democracy' to Zim. What a coincidence they too 'changed'......

 

[Stochos]

Like ZanuPF who brought 'democracy' to Zim. What a coincidence they too 'changed'......

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