Bitcoin Thread

[SaiyanZ]

I am not denying anything but to be honest the only rational drop you could have predicted at that level would be to 6k. Sure I would not call you a mad man for making that call. I still would have thought you were mad for predicting below 6k which did happen. I am just approaching this from a "cui bono" perspective. Assesing what level makes sense and to whose benefit. Below 6k doesn't make sense to me from a profit taking individuals perspective given all the news has been positive. It reeks of manipulation now and apparently to me at 7k it did too.

It demands a degree of absurdity however to believe a move below 5k can happen without somehow whale investors have aquired a taste for hari kiru. Nobody can convince me that somehow that is a rational outcome after three times defending the 6k level.

Sure some whale can sell off his btc so that he can buy in at lower levels....but that is called market manipulation. My claim is if there is no manipulation the price should not go lower.

That's why I mentioned in my first post earlier that you sound pretty similar to before. Back then before we even broke $7k you spoke about triple bottom, lack of sellers, people selling for losses, etc.

Now you're say pretty much the same thing about the $6k and $5k levels. Sometimes it's important to take a step back and make sure we're not making the same mistakes again.

 

[Countcrypto]

That's why I mentioned in my first post earlier that you sound pretty similar to before. Back then before we even broke $7k you spoke about triple bottom, lack of sellers, people selling for losses, etc.

Now you're say pretty much the same thing about the $6k and $5k levels. Sometimes it's important to take a step back and make sure we're not making the same mistakes again.

Remember I am not commenting about if it is possible to go lower. I am saying that rationally it should not and if it does manipulation is no doubt in play.

 

[saor]

Well if you ask me to predict the price of any commodity must I factor in market manipulation ? Then yes, I agree that btc might not bottom at 6k and go down further.

Markets have been manipulated since people were trading cotton and corn.
Those with the money and means will leverage their power to move markets in directions profitable to them.

Asked to assess it only based on rational, healthy, good faithed trading

Trading can be those things, but not the market. The market will always include those factors and actors that aren't rational, that aren't healthy or good faithed (from our perspective). I think you'd be hard-pressed to assess any market, at any time in history based on 'rational, healthy, good faithed trading'.

 

[Countcrypto]

Markets have been manipulated since people were trading cotton and corn.
Those with the money and means will leverage their power to move markets in directions profitable to them.

Trading can be those things, but not the market. The market will always include those factors and actors that aren't rational, that aren't healthy or good faithed (from our perspective). I think you'd be hard-pressed to assess any market, at any time in history based on 'rational, healthy, good faithed trading'.

So given your price prediction relies on nefarious trading can we all safely agree price manipulation in crypto is rampant ?

 

[saor]

can we all safely agree price manipulation in crypto is rampant ?

Just to be clear: Are you suggesting that crashes / heavy corrections in other (non-crypto) markets were also due to 'rampant price manipulation'? Or were those all natural, healthy events and crypto is different?

 

[Countcrypto]

Just to be clear: Are you suggesting that crashes / heavy corrections in other (non-crypto) markets were also due to 'rampant price manipulation'? Or were those all natural, healthy events and crypto is different?

No ,that is almost the opposite of what I am suggesting. I am specifically pointing out that the agents who stand to lose all their ill gotten gains (banks) have an interest in tanking crypto. And yes, they have a hand in trading it into the ground with minimal interest in profit. After all they can literally type money into a computer so they have nothing to lose in their pursuit of destroying non fiat currency.

It is the chief reason I cheer on crypto and thus what needles me about those who naysay it.

The more I correctly point out how btc (for example) has no rational reason to further tank, and then it does.... the more I can awaken people to the absolute ponzy scheme that the banking system ((( is )))and always has been.

 

[SaiyanZ]

We currently don't have a lot of buyers to push up the price. Pretty much every major move up in the last month has been due to shorts getting squeezed. So it makes sense to pay some attention to what's going on with shorts. We need more people to short so that a big squeeze can be the catalyst for a longer move up to $10k+. This can only happen if we either drop down a lot or if we drop a little and start building a bigger triangle like early April. People seem to only want to short after a price drop so that's why I think we will drop further. Doesn't seem like many are shorting at $6400.

 

[saor]

No ,that is almost the opposite of what I am suggesting. I am specifically pointing out that the agents who stand to lose all their ill gotten gains (banks) have an interest in tanking crypto. And yes, they have a hand in trading it into the ground with minimal interest in profit. After all they can literally type money into a computer so they have nothing to lose in their pursuit of destroying non fiat currency.

If every market crash ever has seen the price drop to low levels that seem absurd - gold, cotton, dot-com etc. why do you assume bitcoin is any different? I don't understand how a well-established market trend (low prices in a crash) is not a suitable answer when it's applied to a market you care about?

Even if it's true that banks are trying to destroy bitcoin - there's absolutely no market indication that such a thing is happening. Maybe if bitcoin gets to $500 we can start pointing fingers but again - right now the market is exhibiting what is arguably healthy and normal behavior for any market that crashes / pulls back deeply after such exuberance.

To make the claim that banks are trying to destroy the market, you'd need to point toward some market behavior that's different to any other market. Even if BTC goes to $3000 and bounces back - that's still within normal market parameters. Where is this oddity you've found that's motivating your speculating that this is different?

 

[Temujin]

No ,that is almost the opposite of what I am suggesting. I am specifically pointing out that the agents who stand to lose all their ill gotten gains (banks) have an interest in tanking crypto. And yes, they have a hand in trading it into the ground with minimal interest in profit. After all they can literally type money into a computer so they have nothing to lose in their pursuit of destroying non fiat currency.

It is the chief reason I cheer on crypto and thus what needles me about those who naysay it.

The more I correctly point out how btc (for example) has no rational reason to further tank, and then it does.... the more I can awaken people to the absolute ponzy scheme that the banking system ((( is )))and always has been.

I don't see it just being banks pushing to tank it... its whales and big mining too. They have loads of cash already and can afford to tank it to force others out the market... much like big oil, if you have the cash sitting around, force others out so you get more, get it cheaper by bankrupting smaller guys and then push it all the way up again... basically a big game of chicken, who is willing to make a loss longer before running out... banks will lose that battle, they have shareholders and whatnot to keep happy, whereas parasites like ver and co just adjust dif and take another billion off the top to fund themselves

 

[Countcrypto]

I don't see it just being banks pushing to tank it... its whales and big mining too. They have loads of cash already and can afford to tank it to force others out the market... much like big oil, if you have the cash sitting around, force others out so you get more, get it cheaper by bankrupting smaller guys and then push it all the way up again... basically a big game of chicken, who is willing to make a loss longer before running out... banks will lose that battle, they have shareholders and whatnot to keep happy, whereas parasites like ver and co just adjust dif and take another billion off the top to fund themselves

We may disagree on the source but at least you see it.

 

[broadone]

Quotem` some whale can sell off his btc so that he can buy in at lower levels....but that is called market manipulation.'

BS that's not manipulation by selling off an asset, waiting for price to dip, then buying back in.
Plenty of baby whales do that regularly, buy the dips, take profit, repeat...

 

[SaiyanZ]

I think the best chance we have to get out of this medium term bear market is to do something like the green line below. Needs to drop and slingshot upwards. The key is for people to think it's going to drop hard so that short positions get opened and then squeezed as we get closer to the yellow region. Right now I don't see any further reason/buyers for a move up from $6400.

There should be some reactionary buying at around $6200 hence why it should go back to $6400 from there.

 

[saor]

There should be some reactionary buying at around $6200 hence why it should go back to $6400 from there.

Move back to $6200 would make sense.



(Can't figure out why these images blur when I upload them but not on my work pc)

 

[saor]

Another move down to $6200'ish, then....?

 

[Thor]

Going sideways a little longer than I thought, but either way resistance is futile, it will go down.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Another move down to $6200'ish, then....?

I think it's taking too long now so it might fall through all the way to about $6k. Most who were waiting to buy at $6200 would have already got in around $6300. It might hold there for a little while but fall through eventually. Shorts are also still low. I've decided to buy again only when shorts start climbing fast because this market recently seems to rely mostly on short squeezes for a move up.

After this weekends price action I've come to the realization that we can fall a lot more, even to $5k and below as Thor mentions. Not right now but maybe in a month after a few smaller moves up and bigger moves down. We can still go up to between $7k and $8k but fall afterwards.

 

[SaiyanZ]

There's a bit of volume now. Next move coming soon. I think down but could spike up close to $6500 first and then drop fast. Shorts are still low so I think any move up won't be strong and hold.


Edit: Well that was quite a move. I didn't trade it because I thought it might be one of those quick spikes up and then down. Surprised it went so far and seems to be holding around $6600 for now.

Seems like shorts got hit a bit but there had to have been a lot of buying as well for a $300 move up.

Seems like it's up against one of the last major resistance lines in the $6000 region.

 

[Thor]

https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-custody-is-officially-open-for-business-182c297d65d9

 

[SaiyanZ]

Difficult to say what the next move is. This $300 move up is quite bullish as the last time we had two decent sized moves up in succession without much of a correction down was 1st and 2nd April. So there's not much to compare to right now. Maybe sideways and a big drop back to around $6k like in April but hard to say. Will just watch for now.

You got the trip down, the two lows, then the spike up after coming down a long way previously. Also sitting just below resistance. So the situation is fairly similar.

 

[saor]

Difficult to say what the next move is.

I'll thumbsuck some bullish optimism .