Bitcoin Thread

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All this indecision has got people shorting again. Perhaps the real move will start tomorrow when futures close. The price has almost been forced to stay around $6300/$6400 for two weeks now.

nMTMteAS
 
What the eish is going on with this price.
Price down, then up.

wut.png
 
Seems like it's still toying with that pink trendline. Could also be forming a larger parallel channel between the blue line. Though it's not very steep by BTC standards. Too much sideways.

nwyZEGfs



Edit: Volume has picked up on Bitfinex in the last hour. Bots are buying lots of tiny amounts.
 
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SaiyanZ said:
Seems like it's still toying with that pink trendline. Could also be forming a larger parallel channel between the blue line. Though it's not very steep by BTC standards. Too much sideways.
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Price has been surprisingly resilient to dumps - seems to get bought up almost immediately. Gonna be interesting to see which way price will break out of this region, or possibly down and up again within your blue uptrend.

rkd.png
 
Cool how all that buying occurs when the price drops...seems to be a more common occurrence the last few days / weeks. That dump will probably succeed at some point, but there does seem to be a bit more positive sentiment in the market with these prices recovering and holding. This is the first decent sideways movement in a while.

bought.png
 
SaiyanZ said:
Pushing upwards again now. Took off from the pink trendline for the 5th time.
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Yup - broke resistance last nigh, not on much volume tho.
If price pulls back and finds support on that line - could be the start of a (momentary?) upward move.

break.png
 
One possible bullish scenario is finding support on that line and heading up again.

bull.png
 
Important level for price right now.

It's back testing that $6500 area for support - if that price can hold things are probably looking up in the short-term. If it falls back into the sideways area it was previously in - could weaken market sentiment and price heads down again.

cm.png
 
Maybe a bit premature as price could break higher from here but if it doesn't, if it heads back down to test support at A, that's fine - it can test that level as much as it wants before heading up.

(hour)
a.png

But if it breaks through A back to area B, then there's a very big chance of this H&S pattern forming on the daily chart which could potentially be the start of an even lower move down.

(daily)
b daily.png
 
Still in the channel but I think it will break up to around $7400/$7500 by the end of the week.

JCvAxxql


We are in a similar situation to the last rise where we were pushing up against resistance as well the 0.5 fib retracement level. The yellow areas are equivalent. The 0.618 fib retracement level has been the tops of the last two big moves up and that is now just below $7500. So there's good reason to expect a break upwards to that level. Shorts are still high so a bit of squeeze will also help power the move.

6xK7PVvz


Edit: Looking back, April was also pretty similar. Just under 0.5 fib and diagonal resistance before breaking up to 0.618 fib.

PMEPvB9u
 
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SaiyanZ said:
Still in the channel but I think it will break up to around $7400/$7500 by the end of the week.

JCvAxxql


We are in a similar situation to the last rise where we were pushing up against resistance as well the 0.5 fib retracement level. The yellow areas are equivalent. The 0.618 fib retracement level has been the tops of the last two big moves up and that is now just below $7500. So there's good reason to expect a break upwards to that level. Shorts are still high so a bit of squeeze will also help power the move.

6xK7PVvz
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Thanks - always good to read your analyses. My opinion: It looks like this is a more stable (maybe even organic?) upwards trend than the previous one. If it can go sideways above 7000 for a week or two, maybe it can form new support from which we can see a trend reversal from the long Bear winter and actually see the beginning of a more Bullish trend... Anyway, just my gut feel. Will be interesting to see where we end up in Nov/Dec this year...
 
balrog said:
Thanks - always good to read your analyses. My opinion: It looks like this is a more stable (maybe even organic?) upwards trend than the previous one. If it can go sideways above 7000 for a week or two, maybe it can form new support from which we can see a trend reversal from the long Bear winter and actually see the beginning of a more Bullish trend... Anyway, just my gut feel. Will be interesting to see where we end up in Nov/Dec this year...
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I think the futures market now controls the price. So far it's been up one month, down the next especially considering how the price was almost forced to stay down at around $6400 until the last Friday of August. So taking that into account, we might see these ups and downs without the price really taking off upwards. Seems like upwards has been the chosen direction for this month given the movement this week. Lets see if it lasts till the last week of September.

I also think we might have two months of downtrend before the end of the year, where we might go to $5k and below. We haven't really had a big V-shaped panic dump since Feb and there should now be lots of stop losses between $5k and $6k. Whales know this and might use it to their advantage to drive the price down for a period.
 
Interesting how shorts are being closed steadily for a few days yet the price is stable and even went down a bit. Over 10k BTC worth of shorts were closed on Bitfinex.

Seems like a neutral sign to me. People who shorted think the price is going to go up so they are closing their positions here. Most would be loss-making or close to break-even. Yet others are happy to sell here hence why we're not going up with even with all those shorts closing.

OQCNqKxy
 
A massive amount of shorts were just opened on Bitfinex in the last hour. More than ever before in such a short space of time actually and it's still climbing. Makes things quite difficult to predict now as with this many shorts opened, all TA goes out the window. Can squeeze up quickly or there might be a solid push downwards now with planned manipulation.

hyxNjQq7


A similar sort of thing happened on 23rd July. We hit the upper resistance and shorts went up quickly, although not to this extent and at this speed. That time the shorts got squeezed shortly after. This time the pattern is a bit more bearish as the larger trend looks like an ascending wedge.

FIHgsPQ2
 
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There's definitely interesting times ahead. There was a load of buying yesterday on Bitfinex, over 10k BTC in a short space of time but the price didn't go up afterwards. The same people that sold to this big buyer(s) shorted the market resulting in shorts going up by over 10k BTC very quickly. The big bear vs bull battle is on right now. More so than I've seen for several months.
 
SaiyanZ said:
There's definitely interesting times ahead. There was a load of buying yesterday on Bitfinex, over 10k BTC in a short space of time but the price didn't go up afterwards. The same people that sold to this big buyer(s) shorted the market resulting in shorts going up by over 10k BTC very quickly. The big bear vs bull battle is on right now. More so than I've seen for several months.
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Thx for the updates. Been away for a few days and been nice to get away from the price for a while. Still kind of expecting it to bottom lower but let's see what happens, be nice if it can break up above the long term trend here.
 
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