Bitcoin Thread

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I'm going to hold now until things turn sour again. If the price holds this level for a while more buyers will come. There's also strong support around $6640. That would be the area to break below to start losing bullish momentum. Heavy resistance is at around $6810 to $6840. If the price starts pushing up against that region in the next day it will be a very good sign for more up. Have to just watch if there is a lot of steady selling at the highs just below resistance like the last time.

Futures closes tomorrow so this move is quite interesting. Was initially expecting the price to close quite low so we might be in for a volatile day as Bitmex and Bitfinex whales fight it out.

01oNukDD


Daily trend indicator has also switched to bullish after today's push.

y76Yh1vu


Edit: Turned at $6730 but there's plenty of support above $6600. Safe hold for now.

6IQfku6M
 
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just a question - Luno is an exchange of crypto currency is it not?
Got an sms earlier saying my "LUno wallet" needs to be updated blah blah blah.

These dudes are getting creative!
 
$6730 down. This level should normally be a support now for the next push. There is some resistance at the $6760 fib but I expect it to not pose much resistance. It's just above this bull flag so momentum is with the bulls.

d14c76Db
 
Slootvreter said:
Do all your predictions and charts actually play out the way you think it will?
Click to expand...

Nope. Market conditions change very often, especially when it pumps. There can suddenly be a few thousand BTC pump from nowhere (like yesterday) breaking though resistance levels and changing everything. Impossible for anyone to know when those are coming so you can only react to it.
 
Personally I think technical analysis for short term predictions is like astrology...sometimes it is right, and sometimes its wrong. I dont see how any TA can predict any news, or major event that can drastically affect the price. The charts show you what has happened in the past, not the future. TA can only show you many possibilities of what might happen, so pretty much the same as guessing. On one hand if enough people around the world are doing TA and reaching to the same conclusions, then its possible that it can become a self fulfilling prophecy, if enough people react the same way. Problem is that if enough people react the same way, then nobody makes any profit.
There has to be a buyer and seller in every trade...so there needs to be someone with the opposite decision to buy or sell to you, in order to make any trade. Even the best traders in the world are not really accurate, especially in a highly volatile market like bitcoin, and that is why they only risk a very small part of their bitcoin at any time. I dont know any traders that would risk large amounts of money on any of their predictions, because they just dont know for sure, it could 100% do the exact opposite of what is predicted. Doing short term trading is basically gambling, because you are betting on the price going up or down based on the information you have....kind of like playing poker :p
 
I've been watching fib levels for a couple months now. Seems like it is possible to have a decent idea of short term movement by watching how the price reacts to the fibs and the volume. But when that instant 1000BTC buy/sell comes it just smashes through everything creating a new trend. Doesn't happen too often these days though.

eg. Right now the price just hit the next fib exactly to the cent at $6826. There's a pullback but we had several hours consolidation just below the $6730 fib. So we should bounce from there for another attempt up. Only thing that would change this is someone coming and dumping hundreds of BTC in the short term.

tz8QKEgs


Of course I'm also just looking at one exchange but when a big pump/dump comes, it usually will happen everywhere.
 
Solid dump back down to the supports. However I see it's only Bitfinex trying to bounce back up quickly with their price $20/$30 higher than the rest.. So got to be cautious here. Bitmex futures closes at 2pm our time today so might be related to that.

I took profit when it broke below $6640. Probably best to wait and see what else is in store today.

9TP7WVaw



Edit: It's now also below the diagonal support/resistance. So best to wait for it to break upwards again.

g3kt2n3g
 
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Slootvreter said:
Do all your predictions and charts actually play out the way you think it will?
Click to expand...
It's also about entering into a trade where the risk of loss is potentially at it's lowest. If I can enter a trade and set my stop-loss a few % below my entry point with a strong pattern to support upward movement, it's better than just picking a random place to buy and setting a stop that's almost guaranteed to be triggered. It's not about being right all the time, it's about being better than chance some of the time.

I'm not too bothered about the TA debate, I just find it fun & interesting and enjoy watching how markets behave. I don't have the time or knowledge to get deep into quant stuff, so this is where I view the market and the tools I use to interact with it.
 
Attacking $6666 again. Not sure how important that blue diagonal from the previous peaks is as yet. The price is reacting to the fib levels.

gkRduBql
 
I don't care about TA. Patterns have been reliable for the last year. If it goes down a few hundred people are bound to start buying again. Just don't stay in too long for it to drop further and you're usually right more often than not. That would at least cancel out any losses most of the time.
 
Luno seems to be anticipating something huge.
 
Temujin said:
:D
Must be SaiyanZs weekend buy order:whistling:
Click to expand...

:ROFL: No just watching for now. I don't normally place my orders beforehand these days. Especially when waiting for the next big move like right now. Rather let the price move on it's own and then surprise instant buy/sell when it pumps/dumps. If you put up a wall then the price doesn't move and people are reluctant to buy/sell.

The two volume spikes below are me in the last day. Not all the volume is mine but I initiated the pump yesterday from the low and and the dump today from the high. Both times I bought out the walls.

luno-btczar-Sep-28-2018-20-47-38.png
 
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Should be an interesting weekend. I've decided to get back in again because of the quick reversals from the lows and the last break above $6666 with volume. Didn't expect it to fall so easily below afterwards though but it's still ok. Probably easier to fall now too as we have weaker supports at $6666 and $6640 because of the dumps today. So just have to be a bit cautious and be ready to take a loss if it dumps hard again.

4pXOJgI2
 
Supports proved to be too weak after being pierced a few times. I got out with a small loss as I'm not willing to take major risks right now. Price seems to have bounced from a couple fibs and diagonal support. However it's approaching resistance and from the weakness shown at $6600+, I don't think it will go up much. It will need to go above $6666 again for me to change my mind.

I think there's a high chance we fall all the way to around $6385 very soon.

av9827HQ


Zoomed in:

The yellow area is the weakness I'm referring to above. Fell through those supports with barely any volume.

wDIe4GF8


Daily trend indicator has switched back to red. Trend flips like this have barely happened this year. Usually we go at least 3 days in one direction with some sideways action. Shows that we might be in for a big move soon. We just had 4 days green, 3 days red, 2 days green and now back to red.

kudSWGbJ


There are actually only two other areas where we had trend flips occurring this often this year. Just before the drop from $12k to $6k in January and also just before the short squeeze in April which started the wave up from $6.8k to $10k.

1hlq1VHr
 
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Luckily still in the green. Market seems to be pushing for a bit higher. Strangely BTC has been a bit more erratic but without the same recovery. So hoping for $6650 or either a big push.
 
Yeah it moved up a bit to $6600 and there's a bit more volume. Though I still think this move up will fail soon. If people/whales wanted to buy at $6600 and push the price up further, it would have been much easier to accumulate 12 hours ago in this region and then push it up afterwards. Instead of letting it drop all the way below $6500 first. Now there's going to be a lot more work to do to push it up again to $6700+. People are going to be more bearish and also you'll have people taking profit from the lows. So the logic behind a push now just shortly after there was no effort to hold this area (yellow bubble - dropped with no volume) doesn't make sense to me.

TSagDPHL
 
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