Bitcoin Thread

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Swa said:
My concern is more with how Luno isn't moving and just building up these big walls. Someone's been selling BTC sub 0.01 in hundreds of transactions per day for weeks now.
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The big buy wall the last few days is most likely not crypto followers but instead people hedging against the rand. There's talk about Moodys finally putting us at junk status soon.

Also will have to beware of tax withdrawals in the next month. Might get a few random sell walls because some crypto whale needs to pay his tax.
 
A bit of a dump after long sideways today. Not looking so great on the Bitfinex chart. It broke below the two month support line and the price is another $100 lower in real USD if you allow for Tether value.

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Zoomed in, it's below and has a clear path to $6260 which will make the USD exchanges sub $6200.

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Edit: Based on the recent movement I think it has a decent chance of dropping again like so:

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Swa said:
WTF? I knew Wex was scammer central but this? https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/usdt/trades/USD
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Looks like they're missing a decimal on the display price for Tether. I only follow Kraken though to know what's going on with Tether as that has the most volume.


Price bounce yesterday on Bitfinex was on the yellow support at $6320 which is drawn from the last two major lows. Noticed that there was hidden buy orders at $6320.7 yesterday but people gave up trying to break it very soon without much volume. Will probably see another attempt today.

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Posted this elsewhere. It's my long term view on BTC (5 year+):

I've done a fair bit of reading on BTC and look at charts etc. My long term verdict is that we won't see those massive 1000% growth anymore unless the price drops quite low first, like to $1k and then bounces from there.

The issue that it's going to run into is market cap. At high prices, like $100k or $1000k per BTC, the market cap of BTC will start to be bigger than entire sectors and even bigger than the entire global stock market cap.

The value of BTC and what it enables will come into question at those high prices. People will ask the question: Is BTC more valuable than the entire mining or agricultural sector? I don't think it ever can be more valuable. Without BTC the world will go on. If there is no mining or agriculture then the world will be in chaos.

So long term BTC growth is limited in my view. There is no moon. It's more likely to stabilize in some zone and be rangebound for years/decades until the next thing comes around. Similar to how Gold has been rangebound for the last 8 years.

So the real question left is whether we are already in that range or whether it's around $1k, $3k, $20k or $50k.
 
SaiyanZ said:
Posted this elsewhere. It's my long term view on BTC (5 year+):

I've done a fair bit of reading on BTC and look at charts etc. My long term verdict is that we won't see those massive 1000% growth anymore unless the price drops quite low first, like to $1k and then bounces from there.

The issue that it's going to run into is market cap. At high prices, like $100k or $1000k per BTC, the market cap of BTC will start to be bigger than entire sectors and even bigger than the entire global stock market cap.

The value of BTC and what it enables will come into question at those high prices. People will ask the question: Is BTC more valuable than the entire mining or agricultural sector? I don't think it ever can be more valuable. Without BTC the world will go on. If there is no mining or agriculture then the world will be in chaos.

So long term BTC growth is limited in my view. There is no moon. It's more likely to stabilize in some zone and be rangebound for years/decades until the next thing comes around. Similar to how Gold has been rangebound for the last 8 years.

So the real question left is whether we are already in that range or whether it's around $1k, $3k, $20k or $50k.
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I hope it is $50k......
 
SaiyanZ said:
Posted this elsewhere. It's my long term view on BTC (5 year+):

I've done a fair bit of reading on BTC and look at charts etc. My long term verdict is that we won't see those massive 1000% growth anymore unless the price drops quite low first, like to $1k and then bounces from there.

The issue that it's going to run into is market cap. At high prices, like $100k or $1000k per BTC, the market cap of BTC will start to be bigger than entire sectors and even bigger than the entire global stock market cap.

The value of BTC and what it enables will come into question at those high prices. People will ask the question: Is BTC more valuable than the entire mining or agricultural sector? I don't think it ever can be more valuable. Without BTC the world will go on. If there is no mining or agriculture then the world will be in chaos.

So long term BTC growth is limited in my view. There is no moon. It's more likely to stabilize in some zone and be rangebound for years/decades until the next thing comes around. Similar to how Gold has been rangebound for the last 8 years.

So the real question left is whether we are already in that range or whether it's around $1k, $3k, $20k or $50k.
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And may you be wrong on this one.... and it goes to $500K in a year or 2......:rolleyes::D:D
 
Hxx said:
And may you be wrong on this one.... and it goes to $500K in a year or 2......:rolleyes::D:D
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Nothing is impossible. Highly unlikely to get there though I think. I see a lot of people posting TA's on tradingview saying it went up 1000% in 2011 and 2014 so it will do it again now. The market cap was tiny back then so it was easy to grow. Now it's not going to be nearly as easy and its total value is going to approach other more "real" assets.
 
SaiyanZ said:
Looks like they're missing a decimal on the display price for Tether. I only follow Kraken though to know what's going on with Tether as that has the most volume.
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Don't think so. Even Wex lists it at $9. You can see the gradual rise from $1 from around July.
 
Should be a breakout soon. It went below that hidden order at $6320.8 yesterday but it wasn't huge. The BTC drop on Bitfinex was mainly because of Tether moving towards $1 as the other exchanges held their price at the time. Hope it doesn't just crawl out sideways as it would probably mean a lot more sideways action. Not sure how important that upper yellow trendline is though. Will know soon enough.

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Edit: On the 1hour chart the upper yellow trendline seems more important as it just has wicks above. Though I prefer to use the 15 minute chart to watch the reaction to levels more closely.

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There's the break down with the first bounce back. These types of drops usually will have more than one wave down. The first bounce is just from FOMO buyers. There was a bit of indecision in the yellow area until the volume and dump came.

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Edit: So that bounce back up seems to have caught everyone by surprise. Broke through a few levels but now the sellers are coming in. The blue trendline seems to be the most important level right now. Zoomed in on the 1 minute chart you can see the penetration and rejections from the levels one at a time:

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I considered buying but I don't think it's worth it unless you can get in without fees on Luno. Otherwise with these 1% movements you won't even be able to break even with the fee cost and chances are this level won't hold for too long. So only reason to buy now is if you expect the price to go up even more from here towards $6500.
 
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Temujin said:
Heh... btc's 10yr bday today... who knew /shrug
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Birthday of the release of the White Paper - yes.

9 Jan is the Birthday of the actual Bitcoin Blockchain - generation of the Genesis Block.

Which is the real birthday?? I say let Bitcoin have 2 Birthdays! :)
 
Just looking at the Tether action recently, there seems to be a bearish wedge. If we assume that people are speculating on the Tether price as well and have been buying Tether because "it has to go back to $1", then we could see another Tether dump in the next couple days. Since if it starts to drop, speculators will get out again and possibly trigger a panic dump.

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This time I don't think such a dump will cause any major move on the other exchanges. When it dropped to 85c a few weeks ago, people didn't know what was happening and thought it was BTC starting a new bull run. So people bought BTC on all exchanges when Bitfinex BTC price went up. This time everyone will know that it's just Tether not holding its value.
 
A few failed breakouts. The plus side is it's low volume so resistance doesn't seem very strong. Most exchanges will only take a few BTC to move in either direction. Bitmex has thousands lined up on either side.
 
Bakkt and VanEck - when?? Could be the catalyst the market needs to go bullish...
 
balrog said:
Bakkt and VanEck - when?? Could be the catalyst the market needs to go bullish...
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Seems like it will be better for the market than the CBOE and CME futures because actual BTC will be traded.

ICE, via Bakkt, will offer the first physically delivered daily futures contracts on Bitcoin traded with the dollar. According to Investopedia, physical delivery is a term for a “futures contract which requires the actual underlying asset to be delivered upon the specified delivery date.”
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https://cryptobriefing.com/bakkt-to-the-futures-bitcoin-settled-usd-pairs-to-go-live-on-dec-12th/


CBOE and CME futures are a blight on the crypto market because it throws the scarcity variable of BTC out the window since they don't trade the actual asset. The max cap and future scarcity of BTC is one of the major drivers of it's price. All these contracts do is allow people to bet on the future price of BTC (average of certain Exchanges). Futures contract volume is also huge these days on Bitmex, much larger than actual BTC traded. So what we have currently and probably will get worse in future, is the tail wagging the dog. Traders are making huge bets on the BTC price on Bitmex and then use a small amount of money to influence the price on exchanges so that their massive bets with future contracts are profitable.

These future contracts have already done their work on the market and seem like they're here to stay though.
 
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