Bitcoin Thread

[SaiyanZ]

Looking at history and the big picture, even if this is the start of a new bull run, it should drop back to retest $4200 before taking off. Happened every time after 2013, 2015 and 2016 lows.

Now:

2016:

2015:

2014:

So if we go far below $4200 without any major buying or bounce then it's safe to say that bear market is not over and sub $3k is possible. If we bounce at $4200 then there's a good chance that the market could explode like in the past.

 

[Swa]

Your calculations seem a bit off. 400k from 4k would require a move of 100% at 100x as it is in percentage terms so each percent would net your trading value. The most we had was around 12% in a day. From the values you posted the most you would have got is ~7% so only about 28k.

 

[saor]

I'm also not quite following how the 100x long position worked on that price action.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Your calculations seem a bit off. 400k from 4k would require a move of 100% at 100x as it is in percentage terms so each percent would net your trading value. The most we had was around 12% in a day. From the values you posted the most you would have got is ~7% so only about 28k.

It was $4000 (0.86btc) at 100x. So like trading $400k or 86btc. Opened at $4666 and closed at $5000 so about 7% move but on $400k. Or 700% on $4000. Made $28000 profit.

Not something I'll do again in a hurry but it felt worth the risk. Doubled this account:



Other account:



Think I might actually make a 3rd account soon. Scalping with the volatility we have now is very profitable. So can keep longer term positions open on some accounts whilst trading the smaller moves ($30 - $50) on another.

 

[Swa]

It was $4000 (0.86btc) at 100x. So like trading $400k or 86btc. Opened at $4666 and closed at $5000 so about 7% move but on $400k. Or 700% on $4000. Made $28000 profit.

Not something I'll do again in a hurry but it felt worth the risk. Doubled this account:

View attachment 642254

Other account:

View attachment 642266

Think I might actually make a 3rd account soon. Scalping with the volatility we have now is very profitable. So can keep longer term positions open on some accounts whilst trading the smaller moves ($30 - $50) on another.

Ah yes that makes more sense. Thought you meant you made $400k profit.

Just opened a Bitmex test account but there's about 7 buying options I'd have to check up on. Price action is also wildly different from real Bitcoin. I don't know why they can't just give a test account with mock trades like on a stock exchange. Oh well, will see what I can figure out. Getting tired of Luno lately as it doesn't change during several biggish moves and then sometimes just takeoff or drop for no real reason.

 

[phly]

Ah yes that makes more sense. Thought you meant you made $400k profit.

Just opened a Bitmex test account but there's about 7 buying options I'd have to check up on. Price action is also wildly different from real Bitcoin. I don't know why they can't just give a test account with mock trades like on a stock exchange. Oh well, will see what I can figure out. Getting tired of Luno lately as it doesn't change during several biggish moves and then sometimes just takeoff or drop for no real reason.

The test account is good to just learn the interface and basics but price is wildly off from actual bitmex trade prices so its both good to learn from but also not good due to lack of liquidity. only way to test actual mex is to try on with a live account. Thats where the magic happens. May I suggest you use a referral code as fees are cheaper that way last I checked.

 

[Swa]

The test account is good to just learn the interface and basics but price is wildly off from actual bitmex trade prices so its both good to learn from but also not good due to lack of liquidity. only way to test actual mex is to try on with a live account. Thats where the magic happens. May I suggest you use a referral code as fees are cheaper that way last I checked.

Yeah that's what I figured. So will just go wild trying to learn how it works and then use small amounts to test strategy. It mentioned something about a referral code when I registered the real account. Have no idea where I got it though.

 

[phly]

Yeah that's what I figured. So will just go wild trying to learn how it works and then use small amounts to test strategy. It mentioned something about a referral code when I registered the real account. Have no idea where I got it though.

loads of videos on youtube showing the ropes as far as interface is concerned. Just be warned you may experience issues trying to manually get out of trades when there is massive influx of activity in terms of orders. Other than that you can use 1x which is the same as trading on other exchanges to get the feel of it without the risk then once you get the hang of it increase the leverage

 

[John Tempus]

It was $4000 (0.86btc) at 100x. So like trading $400k or 86btc. Opened at $4666 and closed at $5000 so about 7% move but on $400k. Or 700% on $4000. Made $28000 profit.

Not something I'll do again in a hurry but it felt worth the risk. Doubled this account:

View attachment 642254

Other account:

View attachment 642266

Think I might actually make a 3rd account soon. Scalping with the volatility we have now is very profitable. So can keep longer term positions open on some accounts whilst trading the smaller moves ($30 - $50) on another.

You should have just gone and bought the lotto ticket at the same time. You would have clearly guessed the right numbers.

I mean $4k is not the end of the world if you did lose it but still throwing $4k at 100x is absolute massive balls of gambling proportions. I said it before and probably don't have to say it again but you do realize just how lucky you were to not get a measily 0.5-0.7% retracement right after you bought in which happens nearly 100% of the times during such massive rallies.

Honestly even if I had 100% inside info that there is no way the price will liquidate my 100x position when I buy in at 4666 I still would not do it. Would still seem way too reckless, were you in a gambling mood when you did it ?

Congrats on the winning outcome.

 

[SaiyanZ]

You should have just gone and bought the lotto ticket at the same time. You would have clearly guessed the right numbers.

I mean $4k is not the end of the world if you did lose it but still throwing $4k at 100x is absolute massive balls of gambling proportions. I said it before and probably don't have to say it again but you do realize just how lucky you were to not get a measily 0.5-0.7% retracement right after you bought in which happens nearly 100% of the times during such massive rallies.

Honestly even if I had 100% inside info that there is no way the price will liquidate my 100x position when I buy in at 4666 I still would not do it. Would still seem way too reckless, were you in a gambling mood when you did it ?

Congrats on the winning outcome.

Ye it was a gamble but with a big payoff if I caught the bottom and I had just lost almost 2btc with a liquidation during the pump whilst I slept. So was willing to risk a big long twice if the first one failed.

It was at the fib plus the price action had cooled off for several hours. These big surprise pumps in the past had quick rebounds so all I had to do was wait and catch the wick and my position would be safe, which is what happened. $4666 was also a little safer than some random order as $4650 would have provided more support. Last year $X666 prices also tended to be meme prices or fib levels where people/whales placed their orders. The price actually wicked to exactly $4666 (on Bitmex) a 2nd time after a little while after I had already placed my order.

So had several reasons to risk it.

Posted the below several hours before the order went through:

Lost a fair bit today as my liquidation was at $4800 on Bitmex. Never expected a squeeze to go so far past $4600.

The last few months now look like the April and July 2018 bottoms. If so there should be another pump up to around $5400 at some point and $4620/$4660 should be the support zone. I'm going big with a long in that area with high leverage.

Edit:. The 0.236 fib seems to be the support after a big pump. Happened both in April and July. Equivalent is about $4666 now.

Expecting $4660 area to hold. If I manage to get in long there I will hold till about $5300. Going to risk a 100x long with 1/4 of my balance. Next support is at about $4400 but I don't think it will drop that low. If it does drop further though I will long from $4400 to $4800.

Edit: I'm in. Got the wick with 100x at $4666.5 with $400k. Might get rich or rekt in one trade. Going to hold onto it for a while.

 

[Swa]

Can somebody explain to me how the price could move above my liquidation price without liquidating? Or is this simply on the testnet?
So fine I leave it and suddenly it drops to 1% below my entry and I close it with almost zero profit. Only now I try to place a long at an extraordinary low price that's going up but it says I can't because I'd be immediately liquidated.

 

[phly]

Can somebody explain to me how the price could move above my liquidation price without liquidating? Or is this simply on the testnet?
So fine I leave it and suddenly it drops to 1% below my entry and I close it with almost zero profit. Only now I try to place a long at an extraordinary low price that's going up but it says I can't because I'd be immediately liquidated.

The liquidation price is the mark price (the purple line - consider it a lagging indicator) to avoid your liquidation price being hit and you are out of the trade when price moves very fast, the mark price will lag abit to compensate for those fast movements meaning the price can hit your liquidation price but if the mark price has not reached it you will not get liquidated.

When you place a trade your exit is almost close to that price then you may end up losing money due to fees - think of it as your trade has to be price + 1% - and by 1% I mean like a few points higher or lower than your entry depending on whether you are longing or shorting. there is a better explanation out there i'm sure.

you cannot set a price that is far from an immediate range of price on Mex - no idea why - may have something to do with what your margin can/will allow - and therefore setting too low of a price does not accommodate that margin.

 

[Swa]

The liquidation price is the mark price (the purple line - consider it a lagging indicator) to avoid your liquidation price being hit and you are out of the trade when price moves very fast, the mark price will lag abit to compensate for those fast movements meaning the price can hit your liquidation price but if the mark price has not reached it you will not get liquidated.

When you place a trade your exit is almost close to that price then you may end up losing money due to fees - think of it as your trade has to be price + 1% - and by 1% I mean like a few points higher or lower than your entry depending on whether you are longing or shorting. there is a better explanation out there i'm sure.

you cannot set a price that is far from an immediate range of price on Mex - no idea why - may have something to do with what your margin can/will allow - and therefore setting too low of a price does not accommodate that margin.

Ok thanks for that, explains why I didn't get liquidated.

I ended up closing about 1% below my sell price. So with a 100x leverage I should have gotten 100% or 0.02 BTC but only realised about 0.0001 BTC. So did they take that much in fees?

Well this was after it dropped by 2% and it was already going up so there should have been zero risk buying there if I understand it correctly. This was at the market price so it was in the current range but yet it told me I'd be liquidated. Something to do with the fact it had just dropped 2% so it interpreted this as being above my liquidation price?

 

[Swa]

Bummer. Ok my mistake. Appears the quantity is actually the total order value and not just the amount you put up. I had it backwards so essentially only put up 0.01% of what I wanted to. So I did make practically everything I put up back in profit.

But the order book is just too thin to do any real trading. Oh the "perks" of a mock exchange. The mark price is also a lot closer to the actual price on the real exchange explaining why it thought I'd be liquidated on a long as it was already below my liquidation price.

 

[John Tempus]

Bummer. Ok my mistake. Appears the quantity is actually the total order value and not just the amount you put up. I had it backwards so essentially only put up 0.01% of what I wanted to. So I did make practically everything I put up back in profit.

But the order book is just too thin to do any real trading. Oh the "perks" of a mock exchange. The mark price is also a lot closer to the actual price on the real exchange explaining why it thought I'd be liquidated on a long as it was already below my liquidation price.

Yup its not worth to bother with testnet aside from learning how the GUI functions.

If you want to get a feel for trading then the best solution is to just throw $10 or $100 whatever minimum your comfy with and write it off as learning fee. You can trade with quite little that it could be essentially dust considering the minimum order is $1 worth in BTC.

 

[John Tempus]

Ye it was a gamble but with a big payoff if I caught the bottom and I had just lost almost 2btc with a liquidation during the pump whilst I slept. So was willing to risk a big long twice if the first one failed.

It was at the fib plus the price action had cooled off for several hours. These big surprise pumps in the past had quick rebounds so all I had to do was wait and catch the wick and my position would be safe, which is what happened. $4666 was also a little safer than some random order as $4650 would have provided more support. Last year $X666 prices also tended to be meme prices or fib levels where people/whales placed their orders. The price actually wicked to exactly $4666 (on Bitmex) a 2nd time after a little while after I had already placed my order.

So had several reasons to risk it.

Posted the below several hours before the order went through:

Well done then is all thats really in order.

I agree there is quality entry points that by all sanity should be safe to follow but crypto is just so eratic that even the best TA on such a zero-error-possible leveraged position is straight up big kahoonas.

Just stay sane and realize that luck carried you on this crazy move you made. It can become too tempting to try it again and again with bigger amounts until you strike out just once wiping out all previous luckbox gains, easy to lose your head when you grab such a win on single move.

 

[phly]

Bummer. Ok my mistake. Appears the quantity is actually the total order value and not just the amount you put up. I had it backwards so essentially only put up 0.01% of what I wanted to. So I did make practically everything I put up back in profit.

But the order book is just too thin to do any real trading. Oh the "perks" of a mock exchange. The mark price is also a lot closer to the actual price on the real exchange explaining why it thought I'd be liquidated on a long as it was already below my liquidation price.

Should have added that you actually have to hover over the unrealized PNL to actually see what your profit will be when you get out at that price - what it shows by standard is not what you will have in profits when you exit the trade.

 

[Swa]

Should have added that you actually have to hover over the unrealized PNL to actually see what your profit will be when you get out at that price - what it shows by standard is not what you will have in profits when you exit the trade.

Thanks, was still trying to figure that out. I have no idea what the default is supposed to show.

On another note seems the market is retesting $5300 after $5050 fell.

 

[John Tempus]

Thanks, was still trying to figure that out. I have no idea what the default is supposed to show.

On another note seems the market is retesting $5300 after $5050 fell.

Yup if we can break 5350 or ideally 5400 we could have another 15-20% day on our hands heading to 6000 magical mark.

 

[phly]

Price taking a young break from that breakout which i missed. Been picking up small things in the process - before i would have jumped to catch a falling knife or try get on a runaway train - now i know better - patience and strategy are key