Bitcoin Thread

[Swa]

This might seem a bit extreme but it's happened a few times before. I think in one month from now we could touch $4200:

You're seeing exactly what I'm seeing. The +$5000 shouldn't have happened. It seems to be following the line as a low now rather than a high.

People have no idea how this space works. Manipulated to the core, crypto in a whole is just one big experiment and bitfinex is coining it.

QTL trader ftw...

It's no longer the early days but involves professionals now.

 

[ichocolate]

This might seem a bit extreme but it's happened a few times before. I think in one month from now we could touch $4200:

I read this is very likely , from another article , though many where saying they dont or cant see it happening.
I dont understand these charts and lines because im new here but i am happy to learn it by bit which is why i was lead to this thread.
I heard things like average movement and well i forgot what else... but golden cross and other items, i just dont know how to see it, and i need to know the right sites to use for first usage or else if there is a tool for desktop which is free to use, great
cheers

 

[SaiyanZ]

You're seeing exactly what I'm seeing. The +$5000 shouldn't have happened. It seems to be following the line as a low now rather than a high.

Yeah it can still stay above $6k for about 10 days. Prime time to dump through there for the extra liquidity is around 21 May. So just have to be patient.

 

[phly]

Yeah it can still stay above $6k for about 10 days. Prime time to dump through there for the extra liquidity is around 21 May. So just have to be patient.

Saw the same thing too from my initial posting and analysis. 4k range and then we can talk bull run. Which seems like it will start around october by the looks of things

 

[John Tempus]

Whatever caused the price to start rallying in April 2017 leading up to end year ATH seems to be possibly in play with the current situation.

Take a look at the $1000 to $3000 April 2017 to June 2017 and the continuous rally until end of December 2017. Whatever the factors I think we should look at 2019 as a possible 2017 mirror of some sort except the starting point is 2-3x higher than in 2017 so if everything goes batsh!t crazy until end of this year perhaps we might see either 3x higher ATH end of this year or an ATH ^3 of the previous one(this one is a bit more unrealistic though).

2017 also looks like exponential of 2013 rally. Whereas 2018 looks like exponential of 2014 crime scene.

If there is any similarities that plays out it seems we could expect at current projection around $15k in September 2019 and if upwards pressure doesn't slow down a possible $50k-$56k come end December 2019.

The only thing that might make these new ATH less likely is that we have so many more altcoins that could take the Bitcoin rally pressure midway to pump them but Marketcap should at year end with current project grow 2-3x higher than our previous 815billion peak.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Whatever caused the price to start rallying in April 2017 leading up to end year ATH seems to be possibly in play with the current situation.

Take a look at the $1000 to $3000 April 2017 to June 2017 and the continuous rally until end of December 2017. Whatever the factors I think we should look at 2019 as a possible 2017 mirror of some sort except the starting point is 2-3x higher than in 2017 so if everything goes batsh!t crazy until end of this year perhaps we might see either 3x higher ATH end of this year or an ATH ^3 of the previous one(this one is a bit more unrealistic though).

2017 also looks like exponential of 2013 rally. Whereas 2018 looks like exponential of 2014 crime scene.

If there is any similarities that plays out it seems we could expect at current projection around $15k in September 2019 and if upwards pressure doesn't slow down a possible $50k-$56k come end December 2019.

The only thing that might make these new ATH less likely is that we have so many more altcoins that could take the Bitcoin rally pressure midway to pump them but Marketcap should at year end with current project grow 2-3x higher than our previous 815billion peak.

I think the end of the 2017 rally when it went from $3k to $20k in like 3 months was mainly driven by crypto being the big new thing. Anyone with spare cash was trying their luck and fomo buying in that period. The market seems different now and people know that BTC is not invincible after the dump from $20k.

Back in 2013 there were a lot less regular folk in the market. Movements were probably driven by early adopter whales and exchanges and BTC was a lot cheaper back then so it was much easier to manipulate. To do the same now would require a lot of funds and would be difficult to maintain.

So I think things are too different now to compare. We can have these pump and dump situations like we have now, but to keep going up like previous times needs something more to happen. The market is too big now for a group to be able to sustain a pump for weeks/months which will be needed for a new high and the fomo is unlikely to be as strong as 2017 fomo.

 

[John Tempus]

I think the end of the 2017 rally when it went from $3k to $20k in like 3 months was mainly driven by crypto being the big new thing. Anyone with spare cash was trying their luck and fomo buying in that period. The market seems different now and people know that BTC is not invincible after the dump from $20k.

Back in 2013 there were a lot less regular folk in the market. Movements were probably driven by early adopter whales and exchanges and BTC was a lot cheaper back then so it was much easier to manipulate. To do the same now would require a lot of funds and would be difficult to maintain.

So I think things are too different now to compare. We can have these pump and dump situations like we have now, but to keep going up like previous times needs something more to happen. The market is too big now for a group to be able to sustain a pump for weeks/months which will be needed for a new high and the fomo is unlikely to be as strong as 2017 fomo.

Im not just looking at the last 3 months.

Overlay the whole year of January 2017 up until December 2017 with the January 2019 up until now. There is bizarre pumps with similar patterns just exponentially higher due to the higher starting price for 2019.

I think the FOMO this year can be easily 2-3x higher than in 2017 but it would require not a single month between now and december that have a big dump period to scare of new buyers. If we see June and July keep carrying on with current pumping periods then the door will fall off and the FOMO's will come bursting in.

 

[SaiyanZ]

I see two targets for the next couple days. $6580 or $5960. If it bounces from $6580 it can make a new high before the downtrend starts, I hope not more than $8k. $5960 is the more bearish one and it's unlikely we'll see $7k again soon if we go there.

 

[SaiyanZ]

It just keeps going. I've done a final move of my liquidations to above $8400. If it goes above there then I will start losing money with liquidations. Still another $1000 away but these moves are so big and fast right now.

 

[Tabac]

Just for my interest..... why don't you like BTC going up ? @SaiyanZ

 

[SaiyanZ]

Just for my interest..... why don't you like BTC going up ? @SaiyanZ

I'm a trader not a holder and these one direction moves, (50% up from $5000 in two weeks) are difficult to trade.

That said, I wouldn't mind it to spike up to $8000 and then back down. Got a couple more shorts waiting there.

 

[phly]

It just keeps going. I've done a final move of my liquidations to above $8400. If it goes above there then I will start losing money with liquidations. Still another $1000 away but these moves are so big and fast right now.

Do you think it still has any steam to go further up? Past $7500. I know there has been so much news of late its crazy. Bitfinex apparently managed to raise the 1 Billion they were after. Bakkt has something coming up in june. Microsoft is doing something on the blockchain. Good news seem to be popping out left right and center today all in the midst of consensus 2019 thats going on. If bad news last week pushed BTC up (showcasing its resilience etc) and good news is propping it up today. What will it take to drive it down?

 

[SaiyanZ]

Do you think it still has any steam to go further up? Past $7500. I know there has been so much news of late its crazy. Bitfinex apparently managed to raise the 1 Billion they were after. Bakkt has something coming up in june. Microsoft is doing something on the blockchain. Good news seem to be popping out left right and center today all in the midst of consensus 2019 thats going on. If bad news last week pushed BTC up (showcasing its resilience etc) and good news is propping it up today. What will it take to drive it down?

Have no clue how it just keeps going. Thought we should see a deeper pullback before $7400 again but we already there. If it goes up to $8000 that would be 60% up from $5000 in basically one major move which is bigger than anything in 2018 (not even including the pump from $4200 to $5000).

At least I know now that I can survive a 70% or so move against me with 10x leverage with my current trading strat. That's like worst case scenario for me so my strat is being tested.

 

[Swa]

I think it's an exercise in futility now. Just as shorts couldn't drive it down the longs will probably not push it up much. As you can see the price action is entirely based on longs now.

 

[phly]

I think it's an exercise in futility now. Just as shorts couldn't drive it down the longs will probably not push it up much. As you can see the price action is entirely based on longs now.

I think there is much more in place. And no one really knows what is pushing price up. Bitcoin has also matured to such an extent that it takes quite alot of money to move it this much. It's just crazy. People online are disputing Bitfinex raising 1 Billion in 10 days - is that even possible! We will see how this dance ends.

 

[Temujin]

/faints

 

[Temujin]

I cant trade this... yesterday got lucky when dropped at 7.4 and it dropped down to 7 again, but just don't know anymore... just gonna hodl and go with it

 

[Swa]

I think there is much more in place. And no one really knows what is pushing price up. Bitcoin has also matured to such an extent that it takes quite alot of money to move it this much. It's just crazy. People online are disputing Bitfinex raising 1 Billion in 10 days - is that even possible! We will see how this dance ends.

I could be wrong. But longs just keep going up so it looks like we're going to have a reversal of the short situation. Would be ingenious if instead of pumps and dumps an exchange starts squeezing out longs and shorts in turn.

 

[biometrics]

This is going to be fun to watch...

 

[SaiyanZ]

Just thinking. If I held onto that 100x long from $4666 I would be at about 60btc profit right now lol (with 0.8btc investment). Ridiculous.