nobody can predict BTC it has a mind of its own, Im convinced its a few whales moving money around that cause these spikes/drops
as nobody has yet predicted accurately when it will rise/fall.
I mean its completly a free for all, no regulations
They fkd with interest rates on longs on bitmex.
You can see the pump happened right within 30mins from long interest rates that were at 0.4% which usually means people start to load up on shorts to get paid interest rates and avoid paying long interest rate. In 4hrs the long interest rate is again sitting at 0.3% so what Ive noticed is that it will either be manipulated into the direction expected which is down to get out of longs or as they did with the last movement they traded into the shorts by pumping the market and liquidating the shorts. Whichever case the manipulators decide to take in 4 hrs the price will move violently up or down again but considering they just pumped the market over 10% I suspect the case for a big dump in 4hrs being more likely than pumping the market back to back.
Some big fat whales used this info, look at the short orderbook and decided a measily 100BTC will be able to liquidate and pump the price into a frenzy that will trigger a runaway effect.
Its unfortunate but with orderbooks being public knowledge and whales not needing that much btc to do these types of things it will be manipulation city until there is actually safety triggers on exchanges if price move within short timeframes above certain percentage just like any other real world exchange but since bitmex and most other exchanges have no safety on price movement the manipulation will be super easy for even the tiny whales.
Think of it like this.
Whale sees that shorts are loading up, interest paid for shorts is due inside 30-60mins.
Whale looks at orderbook and see that people are closing their longs to avoid interest so the orderbook to push price up drops considerably.
Whale calculate how much it would cost roughly to start liquidation runaway effect by looking at the shorts below current price. These same shorts are unlikely to close their position at the moment due to being in a loss position and they expect the price to drop due to long interest that is due shortly.
Whale now can get a good estimate what it would cost him to create a serious runaway effect to pump the price via liquidations of shorts.
Whale puts in his own shorts at whatever realistic price they determined in this case I guess it was from 8600-8900 range.
Whale now start to pump the price in segments aggressively since most people want to open shorts so that causes a chance for whale to keep bumping the price up higher and higher while people try fill their shorts for the interest paid soon.
All this can be done with 100BTC or even less so the notion of actual people needing 1000+ BTC to create such condition is far cry. On Bitmex with 100BTC @ 50x leverage you could right now create yet another pump of extreme proportions. Bitmex only allows 200BTC max exposure on a single account but they don't prevent multiple accounts so all you need to do is open 25 accounts with 4BTC on each @ 50x leverage gives you exposure of 5000BTC ~$44million to pump or dump the market. Childsplay for anyone who saved up or combined their bitcoin to manipulate the market at will.
I believe that every 5%+ pump or dump we have gone through is due to this manipulation strategy. Not a single pump or dump this year or perhaps ever have been organic. The price movement outside the pump and dumps is the closes to organic direction finding that I can think of.
What makes matters sort of worse is that manipulators are in fact affecting the TA forecasting when you look at TA to consider price movement. So in a way these manipulators are in fact creating the conditions that traders use to decide their trades and without really knowing it they are trading right into the hands of the manipulators. ****all anyone can do about it except hope they are somehow on the right side of the manipulation.
What I just described is the number one manipulation issue that crypto trading space have not bothered to fix cause fees during such volatility is juicy for exchanges so they really don't give a fk. This is also the leading cause these futures and BAKKT etc have little to no chance to ever pass because if all exchanges don't have an incentive to play by the same rules and there is always at least one exchange who just allow these pump and dump percentages then every other exchange will be prevented from moving on into legitimacy.