Bitcoin Thread

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Bakkt launch yesterday was underwhelming.
 
This dump may be short lived. Haven't seen this action in months.

716731
 
SaiyanZ said:
Thought that there would be a bounce at around $8900 to $9400/$9500 before the next move. So I closed shorts at $8900 and started longing from there.
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Was also expecting a bounce after the first candle and went long. Was around 8500, then that second candle hit and had to scurry to fund account so it didn't get liquidated which luckily I managed to avoid.

FOMO hit me hard and is why I should always follow my gut and wait for the action to stabilize before making the next move. Lost about $200 on that mistake but at least it was only previous profits that was eaten.
 
acidrain said:
Was also expecting a bounce after the first candle and went long. Was around 8500, then that second candle hit and had to scurry to fund account so it didn't get liquidated which luckily I managed to avoid.

FOMO hit me hard and is why I should always follow my gut and wait for the action to stabilize before making the next move. Lost about $200 on that mistake but at least it was only previous profits that was eaten.
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I think it's fine to take a few small longs spread far apart as there should be some volatility. Even if a position is under you can still add and close partially when it bounces. Even though I initially longed at $8800 I longed again at $8300 and closed that portion at $8600. So overall position is better now. Will keep doing this if it keeps dropping.
 
Looking at the volume profiles, the range between $8800 and $9400 is an empty zone. Usually the price goes back into these empty ranges before another big move. Who knows when though.

Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction | Bitgur

Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction, based on deals analysis and statistic. Price trends and support levels forecast.
bitgur.com bitgur.com
 
The tanking coincide well with probably whales who targetted the liquidation engines expertly yesterday. Seems so many people were propping up longs all across the board that kept the price in the sideways movement until Bakkt opened and did absolutely nothing to the price so the day after all these longs were sitting in limbo ready to get smashed.

A tear for the altcoin community , they are still in shock after yesterday.

ps. the 8800 to 9400 range looks empty right now cause those were the positions that were mostly liquidated I assume.
 
Whales caught them nicely. Was waiting for this dump...Reckon we will see $7000 before we see $9400
 
I'm counting on a spike to generate some fomo to just above $9000. Closing longs at $9044 if it does and then will lock in profits with a short hedge.
 
Something about this doesn't look right and I don't see it as a coincidence. Just a few hours before the Bakkt launch the hash rate fell by 31%. In the past few months the hash rate has steadily increased along with the narrowing range. So what if somebody or a just a few big miners were waiting for the Bakkt launch? When it turned out to be rather underwhelming price action wise they decide to dump.

This has none of the characteristics of a usual bear market. See the chart I posted. Money actually flowed in pushing the price of Tether up while almost nothing flowed out. Yeah the market as a whole took a beating but where is that money then? It's mostly related to the price of BTC tanking.
 
Swa said:
Something about this doesn't look right and I don't see it as a coincidence. Just a few hours before the Bakkt launch the hash rate fell by 31%. In the past few months the hash rate has steadily increased along with the narrowing range. So what if somebody or a just a few big miners were waiting for the Bakkt launch? When it turned out to be rather underwhelming price action wise they decide to dump.

This has none of the characteristics of a usual bear market. See the chart I posted. Money actually flowed in pushing the price of Tether up while almost nothing flowed out. Yeah the market as a whole took a beating but where is that money then? It's mostly related to the price of BTC tanking.
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Hashrate didn't actually dump, there was just a period of very slow block finding which create false numbers for hashrate. Without going and doublechecking this extensively a 31% reduction in hashrate would imply roughly 31% slower block finding which happens every other day.

Now it might be that the slowly block finding was in fact a result of many machines shutting down who were gambling at a less attractive mining outcome just to get coins and then hopefully sell at much higher after BAKKT pump the market which didn't happen.

I have seen in the past during 3-4hrs of below average block finding ie. 1-2 blocks an hour for 4-5hrs stretch that the hashrate prediction drops over 50% and then suddenly the block finding catches up going to 12-15blocks an hour for next 3 hrs and the hashrate then shows a near 100% hashrate increase which is clearly just due to luck factor in block finding recovery.

The money yesterday just moved back into USDT/USD/EUR or whatever and sitting idle.

Remember if the market sells all BTC back to USDT, the USDT total marketcap wont suddenly increase yet the BTC marketcap will plummet. This is what I suspect happened to altcoins yesterday , people cashed out back to fiat and waiting without selling altcoin for BTC.
 
John Tempus said:
Hashrate didn't actually dump, there was just a period of very slow block finding which create false numbers for hashrate. Without going and doublechecking this extensively a 31% reduction in hashrate would imply roughly 31% slower block finding which happens every other day.

Now it might be that the slowly block finding was in fact a result of many machines shutting down who were gambling at a less attractive mining outcome just to get coins and then hopefully sell at much higher after BAKKT pump the market which didn't happen.

I have seen in the past during 3-4hrs of below average block finding ie. 1-2 blocks an hour for 4-5hrs stretch that the hashrate prediction drops over 50% and then suddenly the block finding catches up going to 12-15blocks an hour for next 3 hrs and the hashrate then shows a near 100% hashrate increase which is clearly just due to luck factor in block finding recovery.

The money yesterday just moved back into USDT/USD/EUR or whatever and sitting idle.

Remember if the market sells all BTC back to USDT, the USDT total marketcap wont suddenly increase yet the BTC marketcap will plummet. This is what I suspect happened to altcoins yesterday , people cashed out back to fiat and waiting without selling altcoin for BTC.
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While that may be the case it looks like this wasn't an usual event. If it was common nobody would have noticed but everyone did. Here's also as explanation of how the metrics don't coincide this time as they usually do https://blockgeeks.com/why-did-the-bitcoin-hashrate-suddenly-plummet-down/

Though we can all speculate about the size of it this does look to be a real "dump" in hash power.
 
Swa said:
While that may be the case it looks like this wasn't an usual event. If it was common nobody would have noticed but everyone did. Here's also as explanation of how the metrics don't coincide this time as they usually do https://blockgeeks.com/why-did-the-bitcoin-hashrate-suddenly-plummet-down/

Though we can all speculate about the size of it this does look to be a real "dump" in hash power.
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Yep lets assume it was a real dump in hashpower I still think that people were starting up gear in anticipation for BAKKT launch, price did nothing and thus they shutdown and dumped the coins.

For now thats really all that makes sense to me without delving too deep into it.
 
Interesting thing I saw yesterday was XRP and LTC pumped a fair bit out of nowhere about 10/15 minutes before the big BTC dump started which took the entire market down with it. That was a bit odd. I see XRP has fully recovered from the drop in BTC terms.

So whatever happened was probably related to those two coins to some extent.
 
So the one thing that makes the most sense for the rapid dump yesterday is that it all started to dump rapidly after 1.2million BTC were confirmed into an exchange from a private wallet.

So the main question is why such a large transfer took place and why it was dumped pretty much straight onto the market assuming it was not just moved to cause market panic but considering the huge market dump I think this is real and someone crazy enough just went and dumped it straight into the orderbook in lumpsums.
 
John Tempus said:
So the one thing that makes the most sense for the rapid dump yesterday is that it all started to dump rapidly after 1.2million BTC were confirmed into an exchange from a private wallet.

So the main question is why such a large transfer took place and why it was dumped pretty much straight onto the market assuming it was not just moved to cause market panic but considering the huge market dump I think this is real and someone crazy enough just went and dumped it straight into the orderbook in lumpsums.
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That's what I think as well. Who it was doesn't really matter but it wasn't bear market related like is being touted.
 
Swa said:
That's what I think as well. Who it was doesn't really matter but it wasn't bear market related like is being touted.
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It's stuff like that that starts a bear or bull market though. The bull run from $4k started when someone bought about $100mill of BTC on 2 April.

www.cnbc.com

Bitcoin surged 20 percent overnight thanks to a 'mystery buyer'

Bitcoin went up 15 percent overnight after rumors of the SEC approving bitcoin ETFs and Warren Buffett investing in the cryptocurrency circulated on April Fools' Day. One 'mystery' buyer led the jump on the digital asset.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com


I think whatever happens, eventually this person or group will want to close their shorts and buy back as the market is just too lucrative to sell and go away, especially once they have a taste of it. With that much BTC they would have definitely been around for a while. So we just have to wait for the price to bounce and survive till then, could be here or much lower. This is also the reason why I think BTC will never drop too low, like $1k or lower, as whoever has had a taste of the market will keep buying again. Only time that will happen is if the crypto network is compromised or if it's totally banned by all governments.
 
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SaiyanZ said:
... or if it's totally banned by all governments.
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I have a different opinion on that. If the global governments ban crypto the market price is likely to shoot up perhaps with fewer players but it will get rid of speculators and actually attract anarchists and people from countries who needs to use crypto to work around government restrictions.

Basically think of the crypto price in Zimbabwe as a good example. If global governments enforce such strict bans then crypto will shoot up in price as it becomes a mostly blackmarket product.

Completely banning anything have always lead to a rise in price rather than a collapse. Think of alcohol bans, cannabis bans etc. Cannabis being the most recent example that once it is not as outlawed the price start to tank.
 
John Tempus said:
I have a different opinion on that. If the global governments ban crypto the market price is likely to shoot up perhaps with fewer players but it will get rid of speculators and actually attract anarchists and people from countries who needs to use crypto to work around government restrictions.

Basically think of the crypto price in Zimbabwe as a good example. If global governments enforce such strict bans then crypto will shoot up in price as it becomes a mostly blackmarket product.

Completely banning anything have always lead to a rise in price rather than a collapse. Think of alcohol bans, cannabis bans etc. Cannabis being the most recent example that once it is not as outlawed the price start to tank.
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Yeah that could happen if it is banned but it's not something us normal folk will dabble with anymore. So whatever the price, it wouldn't matter anymore to us. Same way I don't know the price of Heroin because it's illegal and it's something I'll never need to know.
 
SaiyanZ said:
Yeah that could happen if it is banned but it's not something us normal folk will dabble with anymore. So whatever the price, it wouldn't matter anymore to us. Same way I don't know the price of Heroin because it's illegal and it's something I'll never need to know.
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lol the heroin example is really not the same thing. I would think you don't know the price of heroin because it would kill if you were a big supporter. ;-)

Crypto being illegal will not kill you.
 
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