Bitcoin Thread

[Sensorei]

I no longer think we'll see $20k in this bull market, or ever again. But I'll keep 20% of my capital incase we retest the 2017 ATH. Bitcoin has become a real, accepted unique asset class by smart money. More like a correction to $25k and then a continuation up for a couple of months. This is insane. The fomo was nauseating today.

 

[Tman*]

I no longer think we'll see $20k in this bull market, or ever again. But I'll keep 20% of my capital incase we retest the 2017 ATH. Bitcoin has become a real, accepted unique asset class by smart money. More like a correction to $25k and then a continuation up for a couple of months. This is insane. The fomo was nauseating today.

Never say never

 

[Swa]

I no longer think we'll see $20k in this bull market, or ever again. But I'll keep 20% of my capital incase we retest the 2017 ATH. Bitcoin has become a real, accepted unique asset class by smart money. More like a correction to $25k and then a continuation up for a couple of months. This is insane. The fomo was nauseating today.

More like dumb money.

 

[Swa]

And from the looks of it there will be a big fall to $15k very quickly. There always is when it rises so sharply so I won't buy before then.

 

[Dimpie (COMPUTEK)]

.... and the Pope is Jewish

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

There always is when it rises so sharply

erm, it has never risen quite so sharply, there is no prior pattern for what happens next

it can definitely fall and fall hard, no doubt, but what if the institutional investors keep buying? what if they accumulate enough BTC to outpace the traditional whales? in that scenario it simple cannot fall much unless those institutional investors sell in bulk

 

[saor]

erm, it has never risen quite so sharply, there is no prior pattern for what happens next

Erm. Define "sharply". If we're talking % increase in a single day then no, this is certainly not the first time or highest amount or sharpest rise or whatever.

Daily chart...

it can definitely fall and fall hard, no doubt, but what if the institutional investors keep buying? what if they accumulate enough BTC to outpace the traditional whales? in that scenario it simple cannot fall much unless those institutional investors sell in bulk

Lol @ institutional investors.

 

[Barbarian Conan]

I sold a chunk around R415k, to buy when it dropped to R375K....
To buy in somewhere now, or hope it will fall to the R400K range...

 

[Sensorei]

Bitcoin Worth $1B Leaves Coinbase as Institutions ‘FOMO’​

Bitcoin Worth $1B Leaves Coinbase as Institutions 'FOMO' Buy: Analyst

Coinbase Pro exchange registered an outflow of over 35,000 bitcoin worth more than $1 billion early Saturday.

www.coindesk.com

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Erm. Define "sharply". If we're talking % increase in a single day then no, this is certainly not the first time or highest amount or sharpest rise or whatever.

Daily chart...
View attachment 986528



Lol @ institutional investors.

sharply over 3 weeks or so, not daily, day trading something this volatile is for fools or brave people

and what exactly are you lol-ing at? Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (exclusively OTC for institutional investors) has bought more BTC since the last halving than has been mined i.e. the entire supply of newly mined BTC has gone to institutions and then some

 

[saor]

sharply over 3 weeks or so, not daily, day trading something this volatile is for fools or brave people

Charts are a thing. Put a little bit of effort in to support your claim because I'm not seeing it. This price increase is nothing new.

and what exactly are you lol-ing at? Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (exclusively OTC for institutional investors) has bought more BTC since the last halving than has been mined i.e. the entire supply of newly mined BTC has gone to institutions and then some

Ag it just feels like every few months there's talk of institutional investors when the price rallies, then as soon as it drops everyone blames the whales again.

 

[Sensorei]

sharply over 3 weeks or so, not daily, day trading something this volatile is for fools or brave people

and what exactly are you lol-ing at? Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (exclusively OTC for institutional investors) has bought more BTC since the last halving than has been mined i.e. the entire supply of newly mined BTC has gone to institutions and then some

Let him have fun staying poor.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Ag it just feels like every few months there's talk of institutional investors when the price rallies, then as soon as it drops everyone blames the whales again.

that's true, there's been institutional talk for far longer than there has been any institutional interest at all

just so happens that from ~2020Q3 onwards the actual institutional demand has outpaced the supply, hence my comment hinging on if (and it remains an 'if') that continues, the price can't drop as much as back in Dec 2017/Jan 2018

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

there goes 500k ZAR ... strap in for the wild ride!

 

[Sensorei]

just so happens that from ~2020Q3 onwards the actual institutional demand has outpaced the supply, hence my comment hinging on if (and it remains an 'if') that continues, the price can't drop as much as back in Dec 2017/Jan 2018

Exactly... But 'if' is no longer applicable. We are past that point. People are just sour that they missed out and won't get to retire earlier. The point is that there has been exponential growth in mainstream institutional demand. There is simply not enough supply to fuel the demand. Dips are bought bought up so quickly that if it ever dipped below Dec '17 ATH it will be bought up in a flash and the price will skyrocket again.

British investment firm Ruffer just bought almost $750 million in BTC. Microstrategy has bought $1.6 billion in BTC, MassMutual (USA's 2nd largest Life Insurance company) bought $100 million BTC last month, Guggenheim Investments put $500 million in BTC, Coinshares asset management have almost a billion $ in BTC. The list goes on and on. There are plenty of other investment companies who have recently aquired hundreds of millions of $ in BTC.

In the last few weeks CNBC has interviewed at least 5 billionaire fund managers and investers who own BTC that say they expect the price to reach 6 figures. This wasn't happening during the last bull run. It's here to stay. Or at least we can get rich from it in the mean time if a better digital asset replaces it some day.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Exactly... But 'if' is no longer applicable. We are past that point

I'll leave a bit of room for doubt, if I was that sure I'd be buying more even at the current crazy prices.

As it stands I'm, just hodl'ing, positioned my exposure to be about 25% of my savings back when the price was ~R150k, now without changing anything on my side that exposure is over 50% of savings

Large enough that if the big moonshot comes I'll be smiling, but small enough that if it all goes to R0 I'd lament what could have been, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it for very long. That's about the right amount of risk for me personally.

Coincidentally the last BTC I bought was about $390 worth 3 days ago just to get cash out of PayPal (bought BTC on eToro with PayPal funds) it gets locked in for 6 months before I can withdraw the BTC which sucks, on the upside it is already sitting on a significant profit few days later

 

[Sensorei]

I'll leave a bit of room for doubt, if I was that sure I'd be buying more even at the current crazy prices.

As it stands I'm, just hodl'ing, positioned my exposure to be about 25% of my savings back when the price was ~R150k, now without changing anything on my side that exposure is over 50% of savings

Large enough that if the big moonshot comes I'll be smiling, but small enough that if it all goes to R0 I'd lament what could have been, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it for very long. That's about the right amount of risk for me personally.

Coincidentally the last BTC I bought was about $390 worth 3 days ago just to get cash out of PayPal (bought BTC on eToro with PayPal funds) it gets locked in for 6 months before I can withdraw the BTC which sucks, on the upside it is already sitting on a significant profit few days later

A bit of doubt keeps you safe. If it's over 50% of your savings and you are not traded then I suggest you take some profits. You could always dollar cost average back in. The inevitable big correction will come and there will always be another bear market as with every traded asset before the next bigger bull run.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

I suggest you take some profits

I just might, at least to take out all the initial "ZAR" I put in, that way no matter what happens I will never be in a loss situation

I evaluate and assess my investment positions once a month though, works for me, unfortunately a bunch of investment banks haven't bothered to update figures since a month ago given the 1st of Jan was a holiday and then it's been weekend

so tomorrow is actually the first opportunity in just over a month that I can accurately assess my exposure again

 

[Swa]

erm, it has never risen quite so sharply, there is no prior pattern for what happens next

it can definitely fall and fall hard, no doubt, but what if the institutional investors keep buying? what if they accumulate enough BTC to outpace the traditional whales? in that scenario it simple cannot fall much unless those institutional investors sell in bulk

Might not have gotten to where it's at before but this sharp rise is nothing we haven't seen before. Also that's not how it works. If the money dries up it falls. Just because they got it to here doesn't mean it will stay here if nobody else wants to pay the price. We've seen that happening with plenty of stocks.

Institutional investors bleh, we keep hearing about institutional investors this and that whenever people don't know what's going on as some sort of dark matter but then when things return to normal the institutions are nowhere to be seen and it's whales calling the shots. Also we've seen what can happen with institutions à la Covid panic in March.

Exactly... But 'if' is no longer applicable. We are past that point. People are just sour that they missed out and won't get to retire earlier. The point is that there has been exponential growth in mainstream institutional demand. There is simply not enough supply to fuel the demand. Dips are bought bought up so quickly that if it ever dipped below Dec '17 ATH it will be bought up in a flash and the price will skyrocket again.

British investment firm Ruffer just bought almost $750 million in BTC. Microstrategy has bought $1.6 billion in BTC, MassMutual (USA's 2nd largest Life Insurance company) bought $100 million BTC last month, Guggenheim Investments put $500 million in BTC, Coinshares asset management have almost a billion $ in BTC. The list goes on and on. There are plenty of other investment companies who have recently aquired hundreds of millions of $ in BTC.

In the last few weeks CNBC has interviewed at least 5 billionaire fund managers and investers who own BTC that say they expect the price to reach 6 figures. This wasn't happening during the last bull run. It's here to stay. Or at least we can get rich from it in the mean time if a better digital asset replaces it some day.

Now where have we heard that before? That's right, Dec 2017.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Institutional investors bleh, we keep hearing about institutional investors this and that whenever people don't know what's going on as some sort of dark matter but then when things return to normal the institutions are nowhere to be seen and it's whales calling the shots

which is exactly my point, the institutional talk has been nothing but talk for a long while, but as of a couple of months ago it is a simple, verifiable, fact that institutions have bought all the mined BTC available and then some

if the trend continues (again, 'if'), institutions will collectively hold enough BTC that whales mathematically cannot move the market like they used to anymore