Bitcoin Thread

[saor]

Trend indicator is looking good today as well showing that bearish momentum has slowed and bulls have taken over for now. So I'm in for now until things turns sour again.

gods be praised - you've switched to the dark theme .

Yeah, been a decent day even if it is short-lived. Some nice alt trades, and also experienced my first stop-loss fail as an alt price fell so hard the stop didn't trigger, then I forgot to cancel the order and the stop sold on the way up as the price went up. Eish.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Just a small drop. Nothing to worry about just yet. I expect this level ($6430) to hold for now.

 

[Swa]

Just a small drop. Nothing to worry about just yet. I expect this level ($6430) to hold for now.

I'm actually more worried about the exchange rate.

 

[SaiyanZ]

I'm actually more worried about the exchange rate.

I assume you're also on Luno. Yeah the Rand strengthened a fair bit today which eroded some possible returns. Though the damage is already done to the Luno price, so if the Rand heads back towards R15/dollar and the BTC USD price goes up a little then there is plenty of profit to be made. Similar to 10 days ago when the Rand and BTC moved in the same direction.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Retested and bounced nicely from the two fibs. Will be very bullish short term if $6500 holds for today. I'd then assume it has enough power to break above the $6620/$6650 resistance.

Edit: Broke down now. That's why it's important to either watch it all the time or have stops. Managed to get out with profit but it was touch and go. It just smashed through the supports so it's important to see whether it can get back above $6460 and hold there again. With this sort of breakdown normally $6460 will now be resistance and tough to crack again, unless it rebounds right away.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Time for the next attempt upwards.

 

[KleinBoontjie]

Came across this comment, when someone asked whether Bitcoin is going to crash. Kind of thoughtful :

"

Oh, we are not that lucky.

Eventually, Bitfinex’s constant Tether printing will fail to keep the price of Bitcoin above $9,500 USD, at which point the panic selling will get ridiculous—and people will realize they can’t get actual USD because you can’t redeem tethers for USD, it can’t be done.

So they’ll try to buy altcoins with their tethers, which will briefly flare the values of those up, but there simply won’t be any USD floating around, as everyone realizes they’re holding USDT, not USD. A select number of whales will make out like bandits as they liquidate their supply of pretend internet money, and there will be a legion of bagholders.

Bitcoin will probably drop down to around 2–3 thousand, which is about 3–4 thousand higher than it would be in a good, righteous world.

Another exchange will open, and Bitcoin enthusiasts will point to their line that gosh golly Always Goes Up, as long as you treat all times it doesn’t as just opportunities to Buy the Dip.

And, like every Bitcoin exchange that has ever existed, they will be ‘mysteriously hacked’ sometime in 2019, take millions of dollars from its customers, and then Bitcoin adherents will continue to sell their worldly possessions in the next surge of the self-propelling ponzi scheme.

Let’s be clear: Bitcoin cannot make you money unless other people buy in after you.

When an investment can only make money by virtue of the investments of those after you, it’s a pyramid scheme.

But it will never die, because anarcho-capitalists are….a fascinating bunch."

 

[SaiyanZ]

Let’s be clear: Bitcoin cannot make you money unless other people buy in after you.

When an investment can only make money by virtue of the investments of those after you, it’s a pyramid scheme.

By this definition, you could classify anything as a pyramid scheme. With traditional investments:

- you invest in a company
- they sell a product
- people have to buy that product and the company needs to make profits
- your investment goes up because the company is a profit generator

But people have to buy/invest in their products and hand over cash for your investment to grow, now and in future. All that's really different is the accounting and the exchange of cash. Your investment in that company will never grow if others don't fork over their cash.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Market looks a bit weak today. Could be just the low volume on the weekend. Or could be that we've run out of steam. I think if the daily closes below $6460 today (2am our time), then we could start to see a bigger slide back down towards $6k and below. Will watch it closely today. In order to revive this run it needs to head back towards $6600 and close around there at least.

The pattern above $6400 looks a bit ugly now. Broke below twice and was quickly bought up but no fireworks afterwards.

Heikin Ashi also showing signs of trend reversal with the doji on the daily. This will go red as well if we close below $6460:

 

[SaiyanZ]

The next 3 hours are key I think and should set the tone for the week. Bullish if the daily closes around $6600. Bearish if it closes around $6460 or below. In-between is neutral.

 

[SaiyanZ]

So still in no-mans-land right now. Noticing a bit of distribution with systematic selling over the last 4 days. Though whenever the price dropped below $6430 it was instantly bought up. 5 times in 4 days.

 

[saor]

SThough whenever the price dropped below $6430 it was instantly bought up. 5 times in 4 days.

Just happened again...
Interesting to see it bought up every time.

 

[Swa]

U.S. market is waking up for the week's trading. We'll see in the next few hours where it's heading. Seems to have strong support at ~$6500.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Just happened again...
Interesting to see it bought up every time.

Yeah, I'm not sure how many more hits this support zone can take. Whilst the buying each time is bullish, it's still sitting very close to the support. Can break down pretty easily and fast from this position I think.

Edit: This time it seems like there won't be a big bounce. It pushed through both supports with big volume and got rejected from $6460. More clear on the 5 minute chart:

 

[saor]

Yeah, I'm not sure how many more hits this support zone can take. Whilst the buying each time is bullish, it's still sitting very close to the support. Can break down pretty easily and fast from this position I think

Looks like support finally failed after so many sustained blows.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Yep, there it goes. We have new fib levels to watch now as well. It's currently just below one at $6360.:

These fib levels seem quite important. Have only been looking at it for a short while now. Bounced off the fib at $6220 and is now sitting on the fib just above $6300. There's also triple fib resistance between $6415 and $6460. So very tough resistance there. Doubt it will go above there for a few days.

 

[SaiyanZ]

It just keeps going. Last support is around $6195/$6200. If it goes to the previous low of $6120, I doubt it will bounce from there.

 

[SaiyanZ]

These are the two key regions to watch now. Quadruple fib resistance in the $6400s and double fib support around $6200. I think since the move up failed we will ultimately go down from here. Maybe bounce around in-between a bit too but it's impossible to say. No trade zone for me unless I see a big pump and can catch a ride on it. That $6400 region will be extremely tough to break.

If we do go up a bit I think $6360 will be max and short-lived.


Edit: It broke through the $6300 fib quite convincingly with decent volume. More buy volume than we've seen in the last week. This changes things a bit. Currently pushing against the $6360 fib. I made a small purchase after I saw the volume and the $6300 break. $6400 area will still be hard to penetrate to get to $6500. I will most likely get out before then. Just a quick flip.

 

[SaiyanZ]

So it bounced between the fibs but in a few hours it will hit the diagonal resistance. If bulls want to break upwards, this will be their last chance for now to push through with volume. More likely we will fall again I think. There has been very little volume above $6360. Just a few wicks.

I got out of my position at break even. No longer willing to hold. Will wait and see if it breaks that blue line with volume.

Edit: Zoomed out picture. That's also an ominous head and shoulder pattern forming on $6200. Could also take us down to $5900 in the next two days.

And zoomed out even more, the bigger one has a target of about $4k.

 

[saor]

More likely we will fall again I think. There has been very little volume above $6360.

Yeah, price has returned to this level for some time now. It either found some long-term support here or it's just a temporary stop before heading down further, which will pick up momentum quickly if this support area fails & panic sets in.

Price support:


Should find out in the next few hours what the short-term play will be as the price wedges in...


And the long-term using log scale: