Bitcoin Thread

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SilverNodashi said:
why has all the crypto's dropped so badly recently?
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I would imagine its to give all those who want to jump on the train early entry at a cheap and a not so premium price. Buying bitcoin at 5.5k is much better than buying it at 20k
 
Looking at the market now I think we might have another large wave down.

We have lower highs for today on Bitstamp which is a sign of distribution. Meanwhile longs continue to climb on Bitfinex and shorts are being closed. So a long squeeze is highly likely. The Rand has also strengthened to R14 vs the Dollar and closing around there for the weekend will allow the Luno price to drop even more than it did yesterday.

Bitfinex also bounced after the low yesterday and turned quickly from the previous yearly low of $5770. Then couldn't get close to that level again which is also very bearish.

So the next time $5500 breaks I think it will dump, with maybe a bounce from $5400. With enough longs being squeezed on Bitfinex, $5400 should fall too though. This will only change if we can get above $5610 with a few candles closing above it.

5Cb4jcm9


Bitfinex chart. The resistance at that yellow line is going to be massive. That would be the area to break to start a bullish move. For long term holders, there's no point in buying so close to this area. Just wait until it breaks above $5770 and holds there or wait for the price to drop more and buy at intervals on the way down.

Fx21Z4L7
 
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Ended up bouncing from $5400 region which was always a possibility after yesterday's quick move up from $5200. So if BTC can go sideways above $5500 (ideally above $5517 fib) for a few hours, things will turn back to neutral and maybe slightly bullish. For now it seems like there are still buyers around.

CMk2jD5a
 
Tether is really pulling a number on things. Was heading for 97c a few hours ago and now it's back for 99c. :unsure:
 
Yeah, somethings up with Tether again. Volatility has increased. Bitstamp has found some support though. Best guess is an attempt upwards in two hours like this:

sv7B3pAk


I sold yesterday on Luno at R83.2k (because of the Rand move as well as Bitstamp price action) and got back in again now.

Edit: Seems like it needs a little more time. Making an ascending triangle just below the resistance now. It should break upwards as I think it's too soon to go down again after the bounce last night from $5400ish.

bOWAr54d



Edit: Looking at the Bitfinex price action, I'm more neutral now than bullish. Could break either way. Bitfinex also has made lower highs and the last move up was quite weak and couldn't reach the top of the triangle. Volume is also pretty low for the last half a day on all exchanges.

SZB6Zi7V
 
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It looked like a false breakout on Bitstamp just now but it seems Bitfinex is calling the shots today. Price action on Bitfinex looks a bit more bullish so I'd give it a 70% chance we go more up right now. Both exchanges broke the lower high trend as well.

Bistamp main resistance zone to break and settle above for now is $5512/$5517:

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Bitfinex above $5603 is a sign for more up:

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Just something on the shorts to look into the medium term. They're being steadily closed ever since we hit that low at 5pm on the 15th and the price is going sideways and slightly down.

57wkPth6


It's also a sign that too many people believe we've bottomed out. From what I've seen/read in the last year, the herd is rarely correct. So we are probably going to have more large waves down at some point, could be a month from now. Will probably move around a bit before then in a smallish range.
 
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Still looking ok for more up. There is a synced support zone on Bitfinex and Bistamp now so there's a decent chance of this area holding. Don't know how high it can go but there's no point in selling now. This is the sort of area that traders who wait for breakouts will be buying so we could see a good pump up today.

Bitstamp:

2s1GI7OV


Bitfinex:

Xbu0ibYg
 
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We have some movement. Luno is still asleep so there's opportunity to buy if you're quick because if these new levels hold, Luno will be at R85k or higher tomorrow with its usual morning pump.

78GZsgp1


Edit: Well that was a quick turn but the price is still holding instead of dumping and the volume was good. I figured the trendline from the previous peaks might provide some resistance. We only wicked above it.

There's still a lot of support just below so nothing has changed and I'm still planning on holding until $5750ish unless it breaks hard below the shaded area. That would be the sell signal.

79ofeYMj
 
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Went below the support area and retested then failed with the volume also picking up. So I'm out for now. Could hold and see what happens but gotta trust the charts. Better to play a bit safe as I don't know how far this can fall.

cHHzqmnV
 
4cer said:
Looks like it might go the lowest its been in a while!
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$5000 seems like a nice round number.

5k.png

Also interesting to note price is back to the long-term trendline (switch to log scale):

trendline.png
 
Yep, there it goes. I'm just going to average buy in now on the way down. Into the double digits BTC today so I can be classified as a whale now after almost a year.

0vhFcikz
 
Just had a nice bounce which would have caught people unaware. If it settles and consolidates on $5280, that would be a decent support.

dVpH8rH5
 
Quite a day so far, one dump after another. I didn't trade too much. All in now again and holding as it would be easy to miss out on a $400 pump that could happen in 30 mins whilst not watching. Selling pressure seems to be slowing down now but impossible to say for sure what will happen. Need to watch the price action for the next day to see how it's reacting to new supports/resistances before making an informed trade again. The key aim now is to not miss out on any decent pumps (5%+).

KcxKJOhS
 
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Everyone seems to be waiting for the bottom. I have about two more ranges for a bottom - after that I dont know anymore. Everything (indicators wise) is scraping the bottom so a bounce is inevitable. Only question is when.
 
phly said:
Everyone seems to be waiting for the bottom. I have about two more ranges for a bottom - after that I dont know anymore. Everything (indicators wise) is scraping the bottom so a bounce is inevitable. Only question is when.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I learnt from my mistakes in the past where I tried to time the bottom. Missed out on some good returns (20%+) in April and July because I over-traded. It seems better in the long run to accept a few percent loss and not try to get the exact bottom so that when it pumps you don't miss out on it.

Since once you miss out the first pump, it feels bad getting back in again with less BTC than you had before. So human nature will make you trade more often to try and make up that difference and you end up missing out on more pumps. Happened to me a few times this year.
 
PS Thank you @SaiyanZ for carrying this thread 189 pages down the road. On behalf of the lurkers and enthusiast alike, we appreciate the analysis.

I lost abit today by being greedy and not cashing out on the small bounce i was riding earlier. Trading fingers burnt, lesson learnt.
 
Since there isn't really much to go on after this one way movement I think a break of that green line (which traders will now be watching) will result in a pump to around $5200 and maybe even $5350 in one go. Though it could still fall further before it reaches it. Ideally for more up we want some consolidation above $5280.

ahrOlNCp
 
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